Ireland 29 Wales 7

Bruising Ireland bully Wales into submission

Ireland were far from perfect here but our physicality overwhelmed Wales to the point that a 50 point win wouldn't have flattered us. Bigger challenges to come, for sure, but this was a good example of where Ireland can go.

Match Intensity

Match Importance

Quality of Opposition

Match Quality

4.3

I knew what Wales needed to do to upset Ireland in this game. I think Wayne Pivac knew it also. The only problem for Wales was that Andy Farrell knew it too.

In the world of elite sports, unknown unknowns are the biggest killer. Back in ancient times, a US Secretary of Defence (Donald Rumsfeld) used the following statement in response to a journalist’s question during a briefing on US intelligence regarding the Iraq war back in 2002.

Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. … But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.

Me, being a liberal lefty little bollocks back in my second year of 2002 thought that this was evidence of Rumsfeld talking absolute pipe because it sounded stupid. Known knowns and unknowns! My frosted tips (no, seriously) and righteous student indignation were sure that this was yet another example of how Dumb & Bad George Bush Jnr’s war on Iraq was. It was Dumb & Bad, don’t get me wrong, but the concept of unknown unknowns is incredibly valid, especially as it translates to sports. If Ireland didn’t know that Wales would be coming for the breakdown and, indeed, selected a back row with breakdown defence as a key quality, then that would be an unknown unknown. We wouldn’t be aware of what we didn’t know – we would be ignorant, and ignorant teams get beaten every week.

Ireland’s reliance on pace at the breakdown – especially as a team that racks up a 1.77 PPC rating – is not a surprise. Every team needs a good breakdown, let’s be clear, but with the amount of possession and handling that Ireland have embedded in our game over the last year, none of it works without a high percentage completion rate at the ruck and quick ball.

What did we have in this game? 98% ruck completion with 71.4% of those rucks being completed in under 3 seconds. You will not beat this Irish side when we rack up those numbers. I would say that it is as close to impossible as there is in the game at the moment.

I spoke before the game about how Wales might try to use their kicking game to lever Ireland into a position where breakdown pressure could destabilise our newfound ability – and desire – to play from deep in our own half. The idea of this is that you surrender possession to kick high and deep to Ireland, pressure the receipt of the kick but then really go after the next two rucks to force Ireland off-sequence.

Remember, Ireland don’t really care about losing players to the breakdown – we regularly commit three forwards plus the ball carrier on certain midfield setups. It is outdated thinking to assume that Ireland’s attack will be hurt by a lack of numbers on an individual ruck. Ireland’s desired outcome is quick ball, almost at the expense of everything else.

When you pass as much as Ireland do at the moment – we passed the ball more than England and Scotland combined, as an example – number problems on an individual phase aren’t that big a deal. When you pressure the breakdown in combination with a kicking game that stresses Ireland’s ability to get the quick ball that makes the system work, you can bring Ireland’s relief kicking into the game and make our possession expensive.

Wales tries to do that early on, but the signs were not good for how they would fare at the breakdown.

Lots of bad signs there, but “passivity” when it comes to the way Wales chased after those windows of poaching space. Even early on, you could Wales were a little too concerned with keeping men on their feet to apply line speed pressure but Ireland’s system is designed to take defensive line speed out of the game.

And let’s be clear here, this isn’t just Wales being passive at the breakdown – this is Ireland absolutely brutalising Wales at the offensive ruck on the edge, and beyond, of legality.

When Wales were able to apply a slow down to our breakdown, we responded as might have been expected.

But when we had our own way at the breakdown and produced the speed of ball we expected, we powered through and around Wales like you’d expect playing against a Tier 2 minnow.

If it felt, at times, that Wales looked a lot like the worst iterations of Italy, it’s because they so badly lost the physical confrontation at the breakdown they were unable to live with even basic Irish attacking setups. Sure, Ireland were illegal at some of these breakdowns – and a referee who properly referees side entries and off-feet will cause us a lot of problems, whatever about the opposition – but Wales were not able to adapt. They looked weak, lightweight and not in the same weight class as Ireland. That sounds hubristic, but it reflects their approach.

Did they decide pre-game to stay active in the defensive line with that back row applying line speed as opposed to burning numbers at the breakdown? If they did, it was a gross miscalculation.

Remember, Ireland losing the numbers battle at the breakdown doesn’t matter because our attacking shape is based heavily on rugby league shapes that are designed to block and play around line speed. I wrote about these concepts back in the middle of 2020 – here – and you can see how heavily Ireland’s work in 2022 reflects these rugby league concepts. Numbers do not matter to Ireland’s attack, speed at the ruck is the key, critical component.

Wales were unable to slow us down so, as a result, they had nothing for Ireland. Yes, Ireland missed a number of opportunities because of a few handling errors and poor pass quality but the chain of possession was so constant and high quality that it was only a matter of time. Wales coughed up consistent penalties for offside as a result of Ireland’s time pressure at the breakdown. They might have known where Ireland were vulnerable but they either bailed out on that during the week or, worse, decided mid-game that the ruck was a lost cause. But who knows? Ireland’s work at the breakdown was so brutally efficient that even a heavy poaching game from Wales might not have worked.

Ireland will be concerned that the replacement front five forwards were unable to keep the chain of possession moving so smoothly. A lot of the choppiness of the last 15 minutes, where Ireland were kept scoreless despite the quality of Wales performance dipping at a worse rate.

That will be costly against France, should it be repeated next week. For now, however, the bonus point win was exactly the start to the tournament that Ireland wanted and sent out a threat to the rest of the Six Nations.

Slow us down if you can.

Notable Players

You know about Johnny Sexton’s age and how it doesn’t make sense that his performance levels are this high this late into his career. At this stage, Sexton should be dropping off, if the logic of other players in his position is to be followed but he keeps defying that logic with every passing game. He’s in the middle of an eight-year peak that shows no sign of tumbling into a black hole, at least on this game’s evidence. He’s got the benefit of 13 years of elite experience – I’m counting since his ascension in 2009 – but none of the usual downsides like injury attrition. This game was a good example of a guy just making consistent high-level offensive reads and executing them perfectly almost every time. Our attacking structure rotates around him, yes, but he’s holding up his end of the deal with really tight loop lines and late-arriving screen runs of his own. A few missed penalties blotted his copybook here but I thought his work elsewhere was of such a high level that it barely counted. Elite. ★★★★★

Andrew Porter, in a different universe, conceded two or three scrum penalties in this game that raised questions about his scrummaging that would become a target on his back for the rest of the season. But that is not this universe. In this one, Porter rode his luck there, for sure, but spent the rest of the game absolutely battering Wales into submission at the breakdown. Watch him banging Bundee Aki out of the way on this phase, such is his eagerness to win the collision after the collision.

He looks like an offensive lineman here, right? That’s a good way to visualise Porter’s role as an engine of quick ball for this Irish side. Next week will be a stern examination of his scrummaging and his ability to shift heavy bodies at the ruck, but he’s shown an ability to meet all challenges in his way to date. Powerful. ★★★★★

Tadhg Beirne showed, once again, that he is the most talented lock on the island at the moment. Sure, a late error leading to a Welsh try was a blot on the copybook because he’s such an all-around talent that it barely makes a dent on his overall performance. He is as complete as any player in the game right now. ★★★★★

Andrew Conway is back to his very best in the last few months. He’s sharp, he’s efficient, he makes good decisions, he chases well, he cleans his rucks, he wins wide collisions and he’s got the footwork and agility to finish objectively difficult opportunities.

By the time Conway took this pass sliding on his knee, he had three defenders covering him and swarming towards the only zone he had open to him – and he still managed to finish. Top class stuff from a guy who seems to have forgotten how to make mistakes. ★★★★★

We are watching true greatness when we watch Tadhg Furlong. If he continues at his current rate of performance, he might well have a claim to be the great tighthead prop of all time. Maybe he’ll need a World Cup for that, but teams who have a guy like Furlong in their front five should be winning World Cups regardless. Hopefully we can do that for him.

Other props might be good scrummagers, lineout lifters, and heavy ruck operators. Others might be good carriers and impactful defenders. Only Furlong can claim to be all of these things but also one of the best forward passers out there.

Look at these three examples;

All of these are the perfect illustration of a well-established power carrier using the compressions he forces himself to release perfectly rolled passes into the space those compressions produce.

He’s as good there is, or ever have been. Furlong is something very, very special. ★★★★★

The Wally Ratings: Wales (H)

The Wally Ratings explainer page is here.  

Players are rated based on their time on the pitch, if they were playing notably out of position, and on the overall curve of the team performance. DNP means the player did not feature and N/A means they weren’t on the pitch long enough to warrant a fair rating.