[su_dropcap style=”flat” size=”4″]F[/su_dropcap]orget about Stockdale’s late consolation try because it wasn’t any kind of consolation. It buffed the scoreboard a little but, ultimately, it couldn’t disguise what was a deeply disappointing Irish performance in Paris. When you look at the game as a whole, it was pretty plainly lost in the 10 minutes before and after halftime where Ireland conceded 21 points, lost control of the scoreboard and drifted away from the tactical approach that I believe would have at least kept Ireland in a realistic range of the 6-point winning margin they needed to secure the Six Nations.

Yet it’s hard to point a finger at exactly what the problem is. Some will go for Jacob Stockdale and, while he certainly was responsible for some basic errors, to pin everything on him would be the opposite of analysis. That’s punditry. It’s the same for dumping everything at the door of Murray or Sexton. It sounds like it could be true but ultimately is an unsatisfactory explanation of the issues at hand. One thing is for certain – something is not working for Ireland against elite opposition.

Stretches of this game reminded me of similar moments against England back in February. There was plenty of effort and plenty of endeavour, like in Twickenham, but the hint of something missing is hard to ignore. I can look at this Ireland squad and point out 23 good players in the starting XV with some decent if unproven front-row replacements so the idea that this is as simple a fix as “throw X player in” is fanciful.

My main feeling is that we’re currently in flux between moving from an extremely systemic style of rugby to the more opportunistic structure that the 3-2-X system that everyone is using these days. That is then forcing a “role clash” where a core of our players are struggling with the demands the system is placing on them.

Essentially, our players are still mostly playing systemic rugby in an opportunistic structure. You can knock seven tries past Italy all day but going away to England and France is a different game. The physical pressure is different, the stakes are different and the mental pressure of playing against a side you know can hurt you produces the rugby you know, not necessarily the rugby you want to play.

Look at this, for example;

This is all happening in one horizontal third of the pitch. Does it remind you of Ireland 2019? It certainly reminds me of what we saw in that time because it’s almost completely Sexton focused.

Ireland had 54% possession and 19.4 minutes on the ball compared to France’s 46% and 16.5 minutes, yet Sexton has two more total passes than the entire Irish backline combined. As a comparison, Ntamack has 12 passes compared to the French backline’s 22 combined passes. For large stretches, the French seemed pretty comfortable with Ireland having the ball and despite how quick our ball was – 66% of our 112 rucks were quick ball – we rarely looked like troubling France with the ball in hand. A 3-2-X system plus quick ball usually produces positive results, right? Not here.

Now, that said, there was some good work in the first half. Look at the 3-2-X system moving across the field here and opening a kicking lane for Sexton right at the end.

That’s good stuff. The structure is producing the opportunity for a player to make a play and, lo and behold, it’s a positive result.

In the second half, we started to revert to old habits. Watch this sequence of play leading to a French turnover.

What do you notice? Nobody passes but Sexton and when Sexton passes, the pass target crashes up the ball. Everything is narrow and it doesn’t matter that we’re getting decent gainline and ruck speed, everything is happening inside the French defensive cover line.

The players crashing up the ball are doing so because that is the pattern and there is no call for anything different. The ball is quick, the carries are good but it doesn’t have the width that the structure we are using needs to breathe. It’s too comfortable for France.

We needed to get the ball into Doris’ hands in the wider areas where he’d be effective. There was even a chance on that last phase sequence. Watch Doris on the outside edge here.

But we were running old patterns and looking for the kind of “Sexton slide” that Leinster and Ireland have used for years when big French teams run out of numbers but the problem was, this France didn’t run out of numbers.

My thoughts before the game were focused on the kicking game because I felt there was a real avenue of attack for Ireland there.

Here’s a good example of a positive kicking return;

Sexton kicks at the space behind Fickou from a central position and, while we don’t win the ball back directly, we forced a scrappy retention from France before winning a knock-on in contact a few phases later. This is where we wanted to defend France and this was an excellent example of the principle.

We also got a good return from kicking behind their advanced edge defender from central positions.

This example was like we drew it up in the Red Eye;

Kicking diagonally behind the advanced edge winger?

That’s exactly what we wanted. In this instance, Keenan was unlucky not to get more than a penalty and a yellow card from this kick through but it was the smart play in context and it produced a reward.

On the other side of the coin, we spoke about not being baited into coughing up counter-transitions by France and the killer try was conceded in that exact way.

France like to kick long on certain defensive scenarios to the point where it looks like they’re “kicking down the throat” of the opposition. They are actually kicking to bait a bad transition from the opponent. In the first half, Ireland just about got away with one.

Why did they kick pretty much straight to Stockdale here? To bait a transition event.

This contestable kick from Stockdale in return was riskier to Ireland than it was to France but we just about got away with it. We would not be so lucky later on.

France kicked long to Sexton early in the second half after a poorly judged Aki grubber. Look at the return from Bouthier – long and right down Sexton’s throat, almost. Watch what happens;

A counter-transition. That kind of central aerial duel is a high-risk play for the kicking team, not the receiving team and when the ball drifts off Conway’s line, Bouthier can release Ntamack to surge away down the wing. The work from Fickou and Dupont is superb to finish this off but this is a picture that France would kick long to generate.

This is where the job gets tough for Farrell. Third in the Six Nations isn’t that bad, relatively speaking. I mean, it’s certainly a fair reflection of where the quality was in this year’s tournament. France would have a slam if it wasn’t for their implosion in Murrayfield and England look like they’re really comfortable with who they are as a squad. As for Ireland, we’re not where we need to be yet from a structural perspective. We are missing a fair few guys who would have featured here if not for suspension or injury but they alone are not the answer, because they weren’t in 2019.

Now, if we can plug a 2018 Dan Leavy into this Irish side it would fix a fair few issues but, at the same time, create more elsewhere. For me, this performance coupled with what we saw against England is somewhat concerning because there is no easy fix. It’s not as simple as “get Furlong and Henderson back”. We need more time with the attacking system Catt is trying to implement and I think it requires a skill set that some of the players selected in key roles within that system are not fully comfortable with.

The tough work starts now. We’re playing Wales next and while I would favour us to win that relatively comfortably, I think the next true barometer of where we are will be when we play England and France again. Can we learn from our mistakes? Or do we need a bigger reset internationally than what anyone would have thought back in January?

Notable Players

Three guys stood out to me here.

I thought Tadhg Beirne had a pretty excellent game. I wondered last week if he’d stack up to tough stuff against a big French back five and he did and then some. He made excellent carries, balanced his work between offensive and defensive rucks really well and looked more than comfortable in the tight exchanges.

CJ Stander was absolutely colossal in defeat. He was our top forward passer, made constant ground in the carry, tackled like a machine, took lineouts, won penalties and worked extraordinarily hard at the breakdown. He was in the top three for defensive and offensive ruck arrivals while being our top tackler and second-highest ball carrier. He is the complete back-row forward.

James Ryan was impressive here, more like what we expect, but something’s missing from his performances that I feel has more to do with his evolved role in the team than anything to do with his skill set. He was still effective here but I wonder if he’d be better served as the explosive partner of a workhorse tighthead lock rather than the tighthead lock expected to do it all? He’s quality, but these next few years are crucial in nailing down who he is as a player. I think he’s a generational talent but we need to ensure we don’t hide him under a bucket just to tick a few boxes that other, more suitable players, could fill.

Jacob Stockdale was certainly poor here but, in a way, it’s almost unfair to judge him fully as a fullback. Yes, he made a number of errors in this game but they could easily have happened to him on the wing in a similar position.

My issue wasn’t so much with the mistakes – it’s that they seem to compound with him. Both of these errors happened within a minute of each other.

He’s a better player than this. He’s a guy you want on the field because he can make linebreaks and score tries. Shoehorning him into fullback so you get him and Lowe in the same back three is tempting but for now, it means living with positional errors and handling flubs. It won’t cost you against the likes of Italy but when you’re playing a side like France, those errors cut deep. He isn’t been close to the reason why Ireland lost this game but it’s getting to the point where we need to figure out what his role is before his confidence gets crushed into a fine dust. He’s better than this but he has to show it. The next game can’t come soon enough for him.

The Wally Ratings: France (A)

The Wally Ratings explainer page is here.  

Players are rated based on their time on the pitch, if they were playing notably out of position, and on the overall curve of the team performance. DNP means the player did not feature and N/A means they weren’t on the pitch long enough to warrant a fair rating.

Names	Rating
Cian Healy	★★
Rob Herring	★★
Andrew Porter	★★★
Tadhg Beirne	★★★★
James Ryan	★★★★
Caelan Doris	★★
Will Connors	★★
CJ Stander	★★★★
Conor Murray	★★
Johnny Sexton	★★
Hugo Keenan	★★
Bundee Aki	★★
Robbie Henshaw	★★★
Andrew Conway	★★
Jacob Stockdale	★
Dave Heffernan	★★
Ed Byrne	★★★
Finlay Bealham	★★★
Ultan Dillane	★★★
Peter O'Mahony	★★★
Jamison Gibson-Park	★★★
Ross Byrne	N/A
Chris Farrell	★★★