This wasn’t a perfect performance but it was a perfect result.
Seriously, could you have asked for a better scoreboard heading into a spare weekend before heading off to Twickenham? I don’t think so. The performance had a few holes in it that Ireland will need to patch up in the next two weeks before facing England but they’ll do it with the kind of bounce that only beating the incumbent Grand Slam champions handily enough gives you.
It felt like a statement win.
A lot will be made about the Welsh performance here but this was the guts of the side that pushed South Africa all the way in the World Cup semi-final. Being without Davies was a big loss, so was Francis but, if anything, Faletau over Moriarty was an improvement. Make no mistake, this result – a bonus-point victory – will stack up incredibly well.
I spoke before the game about Ireland’s route to winning this game – collision dominance and attacking the Welsh midfield spacing – and it broadly played out on those terms. Last week, 43% of Ireland’s carries were over the gainline and we struggled to put together a cohesive performance. This week, 52% of our carries got over the gainline. The numbers speak for themselves.
But those numbers don’t show how well Ireland combined both of these factors.
Have a look at this GIF which takes place directly in the aftermath of a kick transition run back by Stockdale.
Narrow dominance compresses the Welsh centre-field defence and produces an isolated, exaggerated edge blitz for Ireland to piece up as the play swung wide.
Once the narrow carry off #9 drew out the seam defender – Tipuric – and committed numbers to the middle of the field, Ireland could attack the edge spacing of the Welsh.
Furlong’s presence on Sexton’s shoulder helped to pin the Welsh heavy cover, Henderson’s chop line helped to build on that separation and that allowed Ireland to attack Tompkins defensive positioning.
For me, Tompkins is way too isolated on this line. If he’s tighter to Parkes, he can always push out to Larmour and Aki with Adams acting as the “free defender” to shoot into the Irish line.
Instead, you get Tompkins dead on this play, hoping that Parkes can get across the field to Henshaw and being completely vulnerable to a pass to Larmour.
This was just two minutes in.
Ireland would go after that space again and again for gains.
In phase play…
…and off the maul/lineout.
That gave Ireland an access point on phase play and, with a strong carrying performance off #9 by the tight five, it was something we’d go to again and again. Narrow them up the middle, access the edge with a graduated release for a collision gain.
The first try was a stark illustration of this theory, exaggerated even.
Ireland drove narrow around the fringes of the ruck for 8 phases off a scrum looking for a compression.
O’Mahony got a drive on, Murray saw four heavy Welsh defenders struggling to get to their feet and flung the perfect pass to Larmour to attack that edge defence. Tompkins was a little too tight this time but, crucially, he was always inside Larmour’s position with a tired forward defending inside.
If Murray could find the perfect pass, then Tompkins would be vulnerable to giving up overchasing the angle on Larmour. When a power stepper like Larmour sees a shoulder out angle like this and a seam gap that wide, what happens next is almost inevitable.
It was a tough day for Tompkins but the Blunt Force Trauma from the Irish pack up the middle of the field made his decisions on the edge very expensive. Sexton, Aki and Henshaw would tax him again and again.
Even then, this was far from a complete performance from the Irish pack. Elements like the offensive maul, some of the scrummaging and the consistency of our platform carrying will need to improve going to Twickenham. But other metrics, like the quality of Ireland’s passing and the growing comfort in the attacking shape spoken about pre-Scotland were very encouraging.
In reality, Ireland haven’t gone from a side that was on the slide last week to one that’s going to walk a Grand Slam this week. I think what this result shows is that a lot of the commentary surrounding Ireland – both as a collective and with some of their senior players – was the worst kind of knee-jerk reactionism. The margins were relatively small last year and this improvement over a strong Welsh side was a tightening up of a key part of why last year didn’t work – the tight five dominating their opposing unit and winning more offensive collisions when the ball gets released beyond #10.
When Ireland have those two factors, everything becomes easier.
The Wally Ratings: Wales (H)
The Wally Ratings explainer page is here.
Players are rated based on their time on the pitch, if they were playing notably out of position, and on the overall curve of the team performance. DNP means the player did not feature and N/A means they weren’t on the pitch long enough to warrant a fair rating.
| Names | Rating |
|---|---|
| Cian Healy | ★★★ |
| Rob Herring | ★★★★ |
| Tadhg Furlong | ★★★★★ |
| Iain Henderson | ★★★★ |
| James Ryan | ★★★★★ |
| Peter O'Mahony | ★★★★★ |
| Josh Van Der Flier | ★★★★★ |
| CJ Stander | ★★★★★ |
| Conor Murray | ★★★★ |
| Johnny Sexton | ★★★★ |
| Jacob Stockdale | ★★★ |
| Bundee Aki | ★★★★ |
| Robbie Henshaw | ★★★★ |
| Andrew Conway | ★★★★★ |
| Jordan Larmour | ★★★★ |
| Ronan Kelleher | ★★★ |
| Dave Kilcoyne | ★★★★ |
| Andrew Porter | ★★★ |
| Devin Toner | ★★★ |
| Max Deegan | ★★★ |
| John Cooney | ★★★ |
| Ross Byrne | ★★★ |
| Keith Earls | ★★★ |
Notable Players
There were no poor performances here, for a start. This was the best I’ve seen from Ireland since the World Cup warm-ups or, in full-on competitive games, the win over the All Blacks. It was nowhere near as complete as that performance in November 2018, don’t get me wrong, but this win featured the same level of forward dominance over a quality opponent.
That comes down on the front five, who I thought were really good collectively, both starting and off the bench.
When Tadhg Furlong plays like this, there are few greater examples of how the game has changed over the last few years. A guy who’s north of 19 stone shouldn’t be able to move around like this, have his engine or his set-piece basics. When Furlong is at his best – and he was close to it here – he physically bullies anyone standing in front of him, both in offensive and defensive contact and at the breakdown. The best tighthead playing the game right now, when we consider how complete he is as a player and he was a key factor in this win. ★★★★★
Cian Healy had a decent enough game – nothing overtly spectacular one way or the other – but still a bit below what we’ve come to expect from him. Iain Henderson and Rob Herring improved on last week’s showing and it made all the difference. I really like Dave Kilcoyne’s impact off the bench in all facets of his game and he must be pushing hard for a starting spot at this stage.
James Ryan was a dominant figure in the forward battle and he took a step forward from last week’s performance against top-end quality opponents in Ball and Jones. Ryan took on a heavy load of ball carrying, defensive stops and lineout work and played a large part in setting a fantastic platform for the halfbacks and others to work with. Top-quality ★★★★★
The halfbacks, as I’m talking about them, had the kind of smooth, top-end performance that you get from World Class operators. Both Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton managed this game superbly and were a large factor in the width and range of Ireland’s play. When they get quality ball, as they did here – 63% quick ball – they produce high-quality possession.
I thought the back row were, once again, absolutely outstanding as a unit.
Peter O’Mahony and Josh Van Der Flier put on another support forward masterclass here in different facets of the game. Both had dominant defensive showings in different areas of the field and racked up big numbers on offensive and defensive breakdowns. Van Der Flier trended higher on offensive ruck arrivals, while O’Mahony dug into more defensive rucks. O’Mahony added to that with some high-quality lineout work on both sides of the throw. Outstanding work from both. ★★★★★
Andrew Conway had a near faultless game on the wing that showed what a complete player he has become. His work under the high ball was outstanding in attack and defence, his defensive reads were top quality and he topped it all off with a try. He bordered on unplayable at times. ★★★★★
Finally, CJ Stander. To give you an idea of Stander’s work in this game, he had the most amount of offensive ruck arrivals (34) and was inside the first three arrivals (31) on all but three of those. He also had the most defensive ruck arrivals (13) with three breakdown turnovers and he should have had four.
Outside of the numbers, Stander had the feel of a guy who repeatedly changed the course of the game at key points.
He had big moments, yes, and they were huge in context but it was the dozens of other small moments that tilted the game in Ireland’s favour. When you consider the nonsense that’s been said and written about CJ Stander over the last few weeks, this performance is especially satisfying because it’s just further illustration of what he’s been doing for the last few years. Unbelievably consistent to the point that his impact won’t truly be felt until he’s no longer playing.
This game was a showcase of how complete he is as a player in 2020. Absolutely outstanding. ★★★★★
