My first exposure to Dan Kelly was on the same Irish U20s team that featured Jack Crowley, Tom Ahern, Cian Prendergast, and Joe McCarthy. That team was well on the way to a U20 Grand Slam before the pandemic stepped in and made quite a bit of a mess, as you probably remember.
Kelly was the standout midfielder in that somewhat forgotten Irish U20s side, and there was a lot of talk about him moving to Munster straight afterwards, but it never materialised. I think there are a few reasons for that. Firstly, he was still in college in Loughborough – who he’d joined after not getting a contract offer at Sale, where he came up through the academy – and a move abroad to what would have been a Munster academy deal in the middle of a pandemic that, at that point, seemed like it had no endpoint didn’t seem sensible.
Staying in England was the smart choice, and he signed a deal with the Leicester Tigers that summer. In August of that year, he started playing full-on pro rugby as a starter in the Gallagher Premiership. In fact, in his first full season playing after his 20s year, Kelly played 18 times in total – freakish stuff for a player who was still 19 at the time.
By the end of the season, he was firmly on England’s radar and Eddie Jones capped him in the summer during England’s development tour during the Lions. It’s clear now that was something of a capture cap for Eddie; he wanted Kelly to be locked into England so he could keep him as a developing option and worried that Kelly’s outstanding performances for Leicester would put him on Ireland’s radar.
Jones didn’t want Kelly right away, but he also didn’t want Ireland to have him.
It’s understandable. Kelly’s first season as a full pro was genuinely remarkable. He was one of the standout players in a good season for Leicester. A defensive leader with a non-stop tackling engine, a defensive breakdown threat, a punchy ball carrier and a developing passing option with real pace and explosivity.
He took to the pro-environment incredibly well. His next season at Leicester saw him nail down the starting #12 jersey under Steve Borthwick and play 23 times, 22 as a starter. By 2022/23, Borthwick had left Leicester to coach England so there was a feeling in Leicester that Kelly – a key player under Borthwick – would become a key player at test level. He had the ability for it. He had developed into a very well-balanced player at that point who was incredibly reliable defensively and showed real value as a transition runner. Not only that, he punched well above his weight as a carrier. He’s listed at 6’1″ and around 100kg – not a monster by any means – but his strong leg drive allowed him to play bigger.
He was duly involved in the 2023 Six Nations squad and looked certain to play a role for England there but tore his thigh muscle, forcing him to miss the entire tournament. The rumour was that Borthwick was going to start him as England’s inside centre for the tournament so to say that was something of a sliding-door moment in his career is an understatement.
Kelly returned after the Six Nations but with the World Cup looming later that year, his immediate chance with England seemed to have passed.
When England were going deep at the 2023 World Cup, Kelly was back at Leicester anchoring their midfield for the entire season – he played 25 times that season, 24 as a starter. He was still playing well but it seemed like Borthwick had moved on from Kelly as someone he was regularly considering. That’s when the rumours around a possible move away began to surface again. Munster had tried to sign Kelly the season before but his involvement with England put paid to that and Leicester announced him on a two-year deal right before his ill-fated Six Nations call-up in 2023.
He was on the first year of a new two-year deal in 2023/24 and that’s when rumours began to swirl that Munster were trying to sign him with some of the funds raised by the transfer of Antoine Frisch but that never materialised. In truth, it was always incredibly unlikely. Munster liked him, saw a big role for him and were keen to sign him but paying Leicester to break the contract wasn’t a runner.
I felt it inevitable that we would make another play for Kelly this season to sign for 2025/26 right as he was to become Irish Qualified again, and that came to fruition when he was announced officially this week on a two-year deal.
So what is the story with Dan Kelly?
From a statistical perspective, Dan Kelly has been one of the best midfielders in the Gallagher Premiership this season, albeit in a very up-and-down Leicester side that is going well domestically but found themselves on the end of a record beatdown by Toulouse in January.
Some key stats for Kelly with some other players of a similar stature who’ve been playing primary at #12 this season;
Offensive Stats
| Name | Dominant Carry % | Gainline % | Evasion % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Kelly | 45.5% | 58.3% | 26.7% |
| Bundee Aki | 46.4% | 48.7% | 29.1% |
| Pita Ahki | 55.3% | 63.5% | 26.9% |
| Yoram Moefana | 46.4% | 58.7% | 30.0% |
| Jonathan Danty | 61.2% | 59.3% | 16.9% |
Defensive Stats
| Name | Tackle Success % | Dominant Tackle % | First Tackler % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Kelly | 85.2% | 9.3% | 62.5% |
| Bundee Aki | 90.2% | 11.8% | 58.6% |
| Pita Ahki | 76.8% | 5.4% | 63.8% |
| Yoram Moefana | 87.7% | 11.0% | 67.1% |
| Jonathan Danty | 90.2% | 8.2% | 65.6% |
He’s also an efficient offensive ruck player for a midfielder – 95.6% efficiency – and maps well ahead of any of the other players in that roleset.
Kelly maps quite closely onto Bundee Aki when it comes to profile, but maybe doesn’t have the same punch in contact as it stands right now – maybe in the future, but not now. Kelly’s defensive stats have degraded a little from his peak a season or two ago but it’s hard to disentangle that from Leicester’s fluctuating fortunes in that same period.
Kelly’s big strength is his speed, tight handling and stocky running style in contact. He gets low, shifts weight well and uses that leg drive to make good ground off the set piece. That translates very well to carrying routes on the tramlines too, and he’ll suit our midfielder’s positioning as, essentially, wingers on a lot of our transition plays. He’s got the speed and explosivity to click with that system almost immediately.
Kelly’s biggest strength is what he brings to our midfield as a collective; he will rotate with Farrell and Nankivell regularly throughout the season. I think he will primarily play #12 for Munster due to his defensive abilities but they might also see him at #13 more often in our system for the same reason. His ability to cover a lot of ground and make good reads is something that, for me, would suit our #13 jersey defensively but I’m not sure if he’s got the edge playmaking skills to bring what Farrell does currently and what Frisch did previously. An interesting part of his game is how he links up with Crowley and what he might free up Nankivell to do in that edge playmaker role. I sometimes feel like we don’t get to see the very best of Nankivell offensively – as good as he’s been – because he plays “inside” our looping plays.
Kelly could allow him to play in the zone that Farrell has made his own this season, which is something I think could really suit Nankivell from a role perspective. Kelly’s strengths are how complete he is as a midfielder at 23/24 years old, while still having a tonne of room to grow as a player. There isn’t anything that he does poorly; he’s incredibly well-balanced and with the right firepower around him, especially on transition, I think he can make a case for wider Irish squad inclusion at a time when all of our regular options at test level are either in the mid-30s or heading there soon enough.
This is a very smart, perfectly suited signing to make as part of a wider squad rebuild.
