My article from earlier in the week was one of the most popular ones I’ve done in the last few months.
One of the most frequently requested follow-ups was about the importance of a good start to a successful season, and whether the old maxim of “it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish” holds any water.
From a Munster perspective, you could be forgiven for thinking that it does. In 2022/23 and 2023/24, we recovered from brutal season starts to win the URC in the first instance and finish 1st in the regular season in the second. We should have retained the title that season, which isn’t relevant to this article, but I felt it erupting out of my fingers before I could stop it.
I still think about that game.
In both of those seasons, we had an incredibly strong finish to the season that overrode the bad start, but last season, after another bad start, we went looking for another big finish, only to find we didn’t quite have the legs for it. In the end, we needed a massive last two games, plus a few favours, like the schedule sending some of our rivals to South Africa for the final two rounds.
Now, we did the business in the end, but it was incredibly nerve-wracking for everyone involved; players, coaches, staff and fans. I spoke to one of the players in the summer about it, and he said that there were really tough days in training, even though the vibes were high. The threat of impending financial doom if even one of those last two games went sideways was almost too much to take, at times. In the pressers, the nerves were often palpable.
Looking back at the last few seasons, it’s the first six games that determine how your campaign flows.
If we go back to last year, Munster were in 12th place after a dire loss to the Sharks in Durban in Round 6. We finished that block of games with a 2-4 record.
That shoved us onto a home-semi pace for the rest of the season — just to feel safe about Top-8 — and made a home quarter-final or higher something that could only be achieved with a collapse elsewhere.
If we assess where we were after Round 6, and factor in recent URC cut-lines (Top-8 ≈ 49–50, Top-4 ≈ 61–63, Top-2 ≈ 66–69), here’s what the last 12 games had to look like:
| Target | Points still needed (from 12) | PPG needed over the last 12 | Example paths (last 12) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-8 (49–50) | 37–38 | 3.08–3.17 | 9 wins + 1–2 bonus pts or 8 wins + 5–6 bonus pts |
| Top-4 (61–63) | 49–51 | 4.08–4.25 | 12 wins + 1–3 BPs or 11 wins + 5–7 BPs |
| Top-2 (66–69) | 54–57 | 4.50–4.75 | 12 wins + 6–9 BPs (near-perfect) |
We finished in sixth, but we managed to do it with just seven wins because we managed to pick up 11 bonus points.
So, essentially, to go from 12th place after Round 6, the final two-thirds of the season had to be played at home-QF pace (≥3.1 ppg) just to make Top-8, home-semi pace (≥4.1 ppg) for Top-4, and title-pace (≥4.5 ppg) for Top-2. That compresses rotation windows, forces you to chase home “bankers” with TBPs, and to harvest LBPs in red fixtures rather than freely rotating.
If you miss even one home banker after that start — and we did, against Edinburgh — you’re almost compelled to pull an away upset against a contender to get back on line. We didn’t do that either, but managed to pick it up in the aggregate by earning five losing bonus points in our defeats to Edinburgh, Glasgow and Cardiff.
So we’ve seen what a bad start can do; what does a good start give us?
We have experience of this, believe it or not. All the way back in 2021/22, right at the tailend of COVID, we started the season with a 4-1 record for 19 points. An objectively good start, yet we finished 6th on just 59 points. What happened?
1) A soft(ish) front-load, no Leinster
The opening five were Sharks (H), Stormers (H), Scarlets (A), Connacht (H), Ospreys (A) — three TBP wins in the first three, then a narrow Connacht win and a fairly dour Ospreys loss that pointed at key issues in the team at that point, but that’s for another day. Crucially, we didn’t play Leinster in that block, which we have in every other opening block of 5/6 games since this season. Also, it should be added that the SA sides were still acclimatising and underpowered in the European leg early on, and suffered a lot of losses early on.
2) Omicron blew up the calendar
Munster’s South Africa tour (Rounds 6–7) was postponed in late November, with quarantine on return and a raft of reschedules. Those Bulls/Lions games landed in March, turning a steady mid-season into a fatigue + travel spike at the worst possible time, and at altitude for the first time against elite or close to elite opponents. Munster had played at altitude against the Cheetahs in the previous iteraton of the PRO14, but they were not anywhere close to the strength of the South African Big Four.
3) Tough reschedules + fine margins away
The make-ups were Bulls (A) 29–24 (L) and Lions (A) 23–21 (L) — two LBPs instead of 4–8 points. Add Glasgow (A) 13–11 (L) (another LBP) and the Leinster (H) 19–34 (L) that was moved to April. Those four fixtures yielded 3 points; a normal cadence might have produced 6–10.
4) Leinster derbies landed late — and bit
The St. Stephen’s Day Leinster game was postponed to April (lost heavily against a Leinster side getting back up to speed for Europe), and Round 18 at the Aviva was also a loss (a dismal 35–25 defeat against a heavily rotated Leinster side pulling up). That one locked in 6th.
5) League context in 2021/22
The SA teams surged after Christmas with an uninterrupted sequence of home games, and finished as 3 of the top-6 by wins/points — squeezing the middle. With the final table line, 56 only bought 6th (Leinster 67, Stormers 61, Ulster 59, Bulls 58, Sharks 57, Munster 56).
The Net of It
- Start quality: real, but also slightly inflated by no Leinster and early-season SA opposition.
- Mid/late season: calendar shock (postponements), three narrow away losses, and two Leinster defeats compressed the points rate.
- Outcome: 19/5 didn’t translate because the run-in was way harder than usual and produced LBPs where 4-pointers were needed.
But even then, just one or two flips to that schedule allows the fast start to push Van Graan’s Munster into the top four for that season, or even further. If we look at the slim margin defeats in that late run, we see the following;
- Bulls (A) 29–24 L → losing BP (1 pt).
- Lions (A) 23–21 L → losing BP (1 pt).
- Glasgow (A) 13–11 L → losing BP (1 pt).
(All three were part of the disrupted calendar—SA tour postponed to March—amplifying difficulty.)
Simple “flip one tight loss to a standard win” maths.
Assume a normal 4-point away win (no try-bonus) replaces the 1-point LBP already earned → +3 per flipped game.
| Counterfactual change | Points gained | New total |
|---|---|---|
| Flip one of Bulls/Lions/Glasgow to a 4-pointer | +3 | 59 |
| Flip two of them | +6 | 62 |
| Flip all three | +9 | 65 |
If any flipped win was a 5-pointer (away TBP), add +1 more per such game (e.g., one 5-pointer → 60, two → 63, all three → 66).
What that implies
- Even the one-game swing (→ 59) likely bumps seeding 1–2 places (and because Bulls/Lions drop points in those same games, the table compresses further).
- Two swings (→ 62) puts you right on home-semi territory in most seasons.
It was three narrow losses that did the damage, even with two heavy losses to Leinster baked in, and all the other context. Even one win in that group changes the context of the season, and that was all empowered by a strong start. Just because we weren’t able to take advantage of it at that point — for a variety of reasons — doesn’t disprove the rule.
The reality is that, in an 18-game league, your first six matches set the maths for the rest of the season. Every point you leave out there early forces your last 12 to be played at a higher “points-per-game” (PPG) tempo — often the difference between manageable top-8 pace and home-semi pace.
And that’s before you consider the schedule pressure it puts on your opponents in the same vein. Essentially, if you start really strongly in the first six games, by the time the league returns in December after the European fixtures, your opposition might have wildly different scenarios. All of a sudden, you might be the team that gets rotated for, rather than loaded up for.
Let’s get into the numbers.
What a Start does to the Run-In: Good & Bad
Typical assumptions for the first six (rough guide, not gospel): ~1 try-bonus per 2 wins, ~1 losing BP per 2 losses.
| Start after 6 | Points after 6 (typical) | PPG needed over last 12 for Top-2 (68) | Top-4 (61) | Top-8 (49) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6–0 | 27 | 3.42 | 2.83 | 1.83 |
| 5–1 | 22 | 3.83 | 3.25 | 2.25 |
| 4–2 | 19 | 4.08 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 3–3 | 14 | 4.50 | 3.92 | 2.92 |
| 2–4 | 11 | 4.75 | 4.17 | 3.17 |
| 1–5 | 6 | 5.17 | 4.58 | 3.58 |
Read it this way:
- Top-8 pace over the last 12 is ~2.5–3.2 PPG depending on 4-2/2-4 start.
- Top-2 pace is unforgiving: even at 4–2, you still need ~4.1 PPG (i.e., 9–10 wins with some bonuses) down the stretch.
Even there, you can see what a 6-0 start gives you — an average of 2.38 PPG over the next 12 games almost guarantees a home quarter-final. That’s a regular, non-bonus point win every two games for the last 12, which is an insane level of comfort.
How a good start changes the campaign
1) Selection & rotation freedom
Fast start (≥4–2 / ~19–22 pts): You can protect bodies in danger fixtures (e.g., Glasgow A, SA tour), stay selective with rotation in derbies, and still aim for home QF/Top-2. If you hit 5-1 or 6-0, you have even more comfort and can pick and choose when to go strong, even just prioritising home games.
Slow start (≤3–3 / ≤14 pts): You have to be on home-semi pace to make Top-4 or even Top-8. Rotation narrows; experimentation windows shrink; you must squeeze LBPs in danger games. No wiggle room for targeting games; any game you drop, you have to chase in your danger window.
2) Bonus-point strategy
Ahead of pace: You can play the scoreboard — kick the corners late to secure a TBP or bank an LBP, rather than chasing low-probability wins.
Behind pace: You need both: 4-point wins in “bankers” and LBPs in the danger games. Game plans become high-risk at home (chasing four tries) and risk-managed away (keep it within seven).
3) Injury & load risk
Good start: Lower minute loads in winter spikes; fewer “must-win” selections back-to-back; reduced soft-tissue risk.
Poor start: More starters playing heavy minutes through congested blocks → performance drop and availability risks later.
4) Table leverage & psychology
Banking points early keeps you in the Top-4 lane, which changes opponents’ risk profiles against you and helps you control the run-in (home QF line stays in reach). Chasing from mid-table invites variance and makes single slips (e.g., Benetton A) far costlier, which plays on the mind of the squad.
What this means for 2025/26
The opening block (Cardiff H, Edinburgh H, Leinster A, Connacht H, Scarlets A plus Stormers H) can easily be 4–2 or better without asking for anything remarkable. Win all our home games, pick up a point or two on the road against Leinster and then really chase the opening game of the season against the Scarlets.
Targets for the First Six:
- Floor: 4–2 with ~2 TBPs → ~19–20 pts. Keeps Top-4 comfortable and Top-2 viable.
- Ceiling: 5–1 with 2–3 TBPs → 22–23 pts. That buys flexibility for the Dec–Jan spike and the Six Nations SA tour.
If you’re 3–3 or worse, the context flips: you need home-semi pace the rest of the way (≥3.9 PPG for Top-4; ~3.0 PPG for Top-8). That means perfect at home vs non-elite (with bonuses), beating Benetton A, splitting Ulster/Connacht away, and taking ≥2 LBPs from Leinster A / Glasgow A / SA tour. All that is doable, of course, but keep in mind we’ll be going on the South Africa tour without Crowley, Casey, Beirne and, depending on how things shake out, Jager, Ahern, Milne, Loughman and one or two others. In an ideal world, we’d be able to afford 1/2 points on tour without sweating it.
In an 18-game season, the first third isn’t everything, but it sets the flow of your season. Hit ~20 points by Round 6 and you control selection, manage risk, and keep Top-2 firmly alive. Other teams can go about their business with pressure, you can pick and choose your strength level depending on home vs away.
If you fall to ~14 or less, the last 12 become a sprint at home-semi pace just to clear the Top-8/Top-4 lines and, as we’ve seen this season just gone, that is unpredictable.
