THE SCHEDULE

Round 6 :: Post Stormers Loss

By Tom Savage2 min read

So… that was disappointing.

I’ll get into the weeds of that loss in the Wally Ratings, as per usual, but here’s how our URC trajectory looks after last night’s loss at home to the Stormers. It hurt — but how much did it damage our model?

Round-6 Ledger:

We lost 21–27 to the Stormers but took a losing bonus. After Round 6, we’re on 24 points from 6 (PPG 4.00), record 5–0–1, +30 PD, 3 TBPs + 1 LBP — third on the ladder behind Stormers (27) and Cardiff (25). Ulster have 21 from 5 with a game in hand.

Our SoS ledger — plan vs actual (R1–R6)

We grade each fixture by tier + venue and track return against a “plan”.

  • R1 Scarlets (A, C-tier) — plan 4 | got 5 → +1
  • R2 Cardiff (H, C) — plan 4 | 4 → 0
  • R3 Edinburgh (H, B) — plan 4 | 5 → +1
  • R4 Leinster (A, A+) — plan 1 | 5 → +4
  • R5 Connacht (H, B) — plan 4 | 4 → 0
  • R6 Stormers (H, A+) — plan 4 | 1 (LBP) → −3

Cumulative buffer: +3 vs plan (we’d budgeted 21, we’ve banked 24).
Read: the Stormers result spent half of the Croke Park windfall, but we’re still ahead of schedule.

Season runway (12 games left)

  • Playoffs safe (~52–55): need 28–31 → 2.33–2.58 ppg.
  • Home QF (~61–66): need 37–42 → 3.08–3.50 ppg.
  • Top-2 (~68–72): need 44–48 → 3.67–4.00 ppg.

Bottom line: we remain on home-QF pace; top-2 stays live, but now asks for a brisk end to the season.

What the LBP actually did

  • Damage control: a zero here would have erased most of our early buffer. The +1 keeps us +3 vs plan and limits the swing.
  • Tiebreak texture: our PD is +30; Stormers and Glasgow are inflating theirs, so we need PD harvest in banker weeks.

Table dynamics that matter to us

  • The front pack is inflated (Stormers 27, Cardiff 25). Expect the home-QF cut-off to sit ~62–66 this year.
  • In the Irish Shield, we hold position; Ulster’s game in hand is the live pressure point. The dog bowl is still in play — I’m sure you’re relieved to hear that.
  • Leinster (16) are chasing, but we’ve already banked the Croke Park head-to-head.

Next block (R7–R8): targets & swing value

Ospreys (A, C-tier) → Leinster (H, A+)

  • Plan: 4 + 4 = 8 → 32 after 8 (keeps us ahead of the model).
  • Stretch: add 1 TBP across the two → 9–10 from the block → 33–34 after 8 (re-accelerates top-2 pace).
  • How we play it:
    • Ospreys away: control first; chase TBP only if the game state allows.
    • Leinster at home: bank 4 and deny their BP; a 5 nearly cancels the Stormers’ loss in the seeding maths. A win here was always our target, and that’s even more important now.

Bonus-point & PD economics (rest of season)

We’re at 3 TBPs in 6 (0.50/game). To finish on 7–8 TBPs, we need 4–5 more in the last 12 (0.33–0.42/game).

  • Ring-fence: Dragons (H) and Zebre (H); be opportunistic vs C-tier away.
  • PD goal: add +40–50 across banker weeks; likely decisive if 2–6 on the log compress, as I fully expect them to.

Red-zone reminder

R11–R14: Glasgow (A) → Zebre (H) → Sharks (A) → Bulls (A).
With the buffer trimmed to +3, we can afford one poor result in that run if we bank points difference at home and extract at least LBPs in SA when wins aren’t on.

TL; DR

State of play: 24/6, +3 vs plan, still home-QF pace.

Next two: target ≥8 points, ≥1 TBP if the window opens.

Season strategy: We need to start harvesting try bonus point wins at home, protect points difference, and treat SA as a two-match project (one win or two LBPs). Sharks game is a live target given how poor they are this season.

Outcome if met: we finish in the 62–66 band with genuine top-2 potential.