The Table Has Changed
When we last ran the numbers after Round 12, we were fourth. Happy days! However, all the games in hand have now been played, and the table looks a little different from a numbers perspective, but not so different for panic. We’re sixth, with six games to play and the South African tour kicking off this week.
Glasgow lead on 45. Behind them, three sides — Stormers, Ulster and Leinster — are all level on 41. Cardiff are fifth on 40. We’re sixth on 39, one point off fifth, two points off second. The Lions are seventh on 33, the Bulls eighth on 30.
It’s tighter at the top than it has been all season, and the timing makes for jittery reading — we’re about to go to South Africa for two weeks against sticky opposition.
First, let’s get to the obvious question after the Bulls defeat last week against the Stormers.
Is Top Eight Confirmed?
Very nearly, but not mathematically. Like filling up the car at the moment, that distinction matters, especially with how we frame the next two games.
Here’s the basic maths as I’ve been able to determine. The cut-off for eighth place will settle around 52–54 points based on how the season has developed so far. From 39, we need 13–15 more points from six games to be absolutely certain. That’s roughly three wins from six, with a bonus point or two. We have eight wins already from twelve games. The idea that we won’t get three more from six — including home games against Ulster and the Lions — requires a level of collapse that, even when I’m awake at 2 am doomscrolling, isn’t realistic.
Below us, the Lions are on 33 in seventh, and the Bulls are on 30 in eighth.
To overtake us, we’d need to stop winning entirely while they run hot for the last six games. Neither side can reach us without our active cooperation in our own downfall. When I put it like that, it doesn’t seem outside the realm of possibility, but I’ll say this for a finish: we’re unlikely to participate in our own downfall that much.
The teams below eighth — Connacht on 30, Ospreys on 29 — are ten points behind. Connacht have a remarkable bonus point haul of ten, which tells its own story about a team collecting scraps rather than wins, and Ospreys have only five wins from twelve. Neither is coming for us in any realistic scenario.
So: top eight is as close to confirmed as it can be without being mathematically sealed. The probability of missing it is, genuinely, close to zero.
The caveat — and it’s a small one — is that two heavy defeats in South Africa without bonus points, combined with a run of home results going against us, could theoretically create a nervous final two rounds. That’s not a prediction — although it’s been the case in two of the last three seasons. It’s just the reason we don’t write it off entirely until the numbers make it impossible.
The Landscape Has Shifted
What’s changed since Round 12 isn’t just the table positions, it’s the nature of the challenge.
When we were fourth, we were managing a cushion, albeit a cushion that relied a little on Ulster losing away to Edinburgh, which looked likely, for a while, until it didn’t. Now we’re sixth, we’re chasing top four again. That’s a different psychological and tactical proposition, particularly going into the two hardest fixtures on our schedule back-to-back.
The five teams above us present different problems:
Glasgow on 45 look locked for first. Their remaining schedule is manageable enough that, barring a dramatic collapse — four or five losses from six — they finish top. That’s probably not our concern and nothing to do with us, in reality.
Stormers on 41 are the most interesting case. They’ve been really inconsisent during their South African derby run, but they’re done with that now. We don’t play Stormers on the run-in directly, so their trajectory is largely out of our hands, but they can do us a favour when they play Cardiff and Ulster on tour in the last two rounds.
Ulster on 41, third on points difference, are the most directly relevant. We play them in Thomond Park in R16. That fixture is now enormous — not just for the precious, beloved Irish Shield, but for literally finishing above them. If we’re still chasing them by then, it becomes an eight-point swing game. I will say this, though; they have a really tricky run for the last few rounds. Connacht, Zebre, Leinster, ourselves, Glasgow and then finishing with the Stormers.
There are three or four losses there, especially if they pick up a few knocks along the way.
Leinster on 41, fourth have a favourable run-in on paper and will likely finish top four or higher, depending mainly on how Glasgow and Stormers go; our question is whether we can get level or above them.
Cardiff on 40 are the side we’re most likely to leapfrog. They have a tough run-in — they’re on tour with us at the moment — and they finish the season with an away game against Glasgow and home against the Stormers. I wouldn’t necessarily rely on a late collapse to open up a run to the top five and beyond here, but I wouldn’t write it off either.
South Africa: The Season in Two Games
This was always going to be the defining block, and it arrives at a sticky time without full access. to our internationals. We’re chasing rather than, ideally, managing a top-three or top-four spot.
The original framing was “one win or two losing bonus points is success.” That framing needs to be updated slightly if we’re to stay on track for the top four.
One win is the minimum viable outcome. If we go to Durban and Pretoria and come back with one win and a losing bonus point, that’s six points. From 39, that puts us on 45 with four games left against opponents we should be beating. That’s a realistic route to 60+, which is firmly inside the top-four band as I’m projecting it right now.
Two losing bonus points — two points from two games, a difficult ask in defeat — and we’re back on 41 with four games left, needing 21 more points from four to reach 62. That’s five points per game from four games, which is possible, but it removes all margin for error in the home stretch.
Zero points from South Africa — two heavy defeats without even the floor of a losing bonus — and the season is in genuine trouble. We’d need to win all four remaining games with multiple bonus points just to reach the top-four threshold. At that point, we’d be looking at a top-six finish as the realistic ceiling. Not the end of the world, but it’d be a betrayal of the excellent start to the season.
The Sharks (A, R13)
I grade this as a difficult but winnable away game. The Sharks are eleventh on 24, which tells you about their season — plenty of tries scored (six bonus points) but not enough wins. They’re a dangerous side at whatever they’re calling Kings Park this week, but they’re not in the top half of the table for a reason. A win here, with or without the try bonus, is the foundation on which the rest of the season can be built on.
The Bulls (A, R14 — Loftus Versfeld)
This is the hardest fixture on our entire schedule, even with the Bulls iffy form this season — it has been since we mapped it in August, when we gave it a SoS score of 6.0.
The Bulls at Loftus, at altitude, is a genuine test for any European side. They’re eighth on 30, which means they’re fighting for their playoff lives. That makes them more dangerous, not less. A losing bonus point here is a professional result. A win would be one of the results of the season.
The Points Picture From Here
With six games remaining — Sharks (A), Bulls (A), Benetton (A), Ulster (H), Connacht (A), Lions (H) — here is what the different finishing scenarios look like:
Top four / home quarter-final (target ~62–66 points)
We need 23–27 more from six. The most realistic route:
- Win in Durban (4–5 pts), LBP or win in Pretoria (1–5 pts), win in Treviso (4–5 pts), beat Ulster at home (4–5 pts), win or LBP in Galway (1–4 pts), beat Lions at home (4–5 pts).
A base case of two SA wins, one win in Italy, and two home wins gets us to roughly 63–65. That’s top four, maybe even top two if results go our way elsewhere.
Top six (target ~55–60 points)
One SA win, lose the other with an LBP, win three of the four remaining games. That gets us to around 57–59. Top six, maybe top four.
The floor we cannot afford
Zero from SA, two wins from the four URC games. That’s roughly 47–51 — potentially outside or on the edge of the top eight, depending on how the Lions and Bulls finish.
The Bonus Point Question
Our ledger through twelve games shows five try-bonus wins and two losing bonuses from twelve games. That’s a reasonable haul, but our plan vs actual table shows we’ve left three points behind against the model — all of them in games we should have won comfortably and didn’t extract the bonus from.
In the remaining six, the games where a try bonus is both achievable and strategically important are Ulster at home and Lions at home. Both are fixtures where the crowd, the occasion and the opponent make for a possible TBP haul. Plan for five in both. Benetton away in Treviso is also a fixture where a try bonus is realistic if we’re on form.
In SA, we don’t overchase anything. Take what’s there — if we’re winning comfortably late in games, chase the tries. If we’re in a tight contest, close it out.
Bottom Line
Top eight is as close to confirmed as it can be without being mathematically done. The real season — the one that determines whether we’re hosting a quarter-final or travelling to one — starts this weekend in Durban.
One win from South Africa keeps top four alive and puts us in control of our own destiny for the final four games. Two wins from South Africa, and we’re back in the conversation for second or third. Two losses, and we’re spending April trying to recover ground we should have had in the block before and during the Six Nations.
The schedule was always going to come down to this block.
It has.
How we come home from South Africa will define what kind of season 2025/26 ends up being.
