I am buckled with COVID at the moment. Omicron has run me over like I’m a halfback defending Gavin Coombes on a scrum launch and it’s impacted my ability to get stuff written this week. Yet, here I am, writing away on Friday morning with my heart rate doing 110BPM just sitting down at my kitchen table. I’m never normally this excited writing the Red Eye so I guess it’s the coronavirus letting me know what’s up as Storm Eunice rages outside. I’ve been in worse spots, believe it or not, so I’ll still get this written, albeit in a more condensed form so I don’t end up fever ranting all over these pages.
Get vaccinated if you’re not. I’m fucked with three vaccines, I’d be in the hospital without them I’m almost sure of it.
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Munster find themselves at a hinge point in this mid-test window block. The loss last week was disappointing for a number of reasons, but the losing bonus point was roughly on track with what we would have sketched out for that game beforehand given the players available to both sides.
This game, however, has to be a win. Winning your home games is a hoary old chestnut at this stage but it’s a cliché for a reason. A loss here would see us solidly cut off from the top four by a bonus-point win or more and see us rooted into third place in the Irish Shield with just eight games remaining, and two of those games are a trip to South Africa to play the Bulls and the Lions.
With the South African sides sure to rack up wins as they welcome touring sides for the first time this season, fifth in the log is a dangerous place to be if we have ambitions of winning this tournament.
Edinburgh: 15. Henry Immelman, 14. Ramiro Moyan, 13. Mark Bennett (C), 12. James Lang, 11. Emiliano Boffelli; 10. Blair Kinghorn, 9. Ben Vellacott; 1. Boan Venter, 2. Adam McBurney, 3. Lee-Roy Atalifo, 4. Marshall Sykes, 5. Glen Young, 6. Nick Haining, 7. Connor Boyle, 8. Ben Muncaster (6)
Replacements: 16. Dave Cherry, 17. Sam Grahamslaw, 18. Jake Armstrong, 19. Pierce Phillips, 20. Mesulame Kunavula, 21. Henry Pyrgos, 22. Charlie Savala, 23. Chris Dean
Red Eye Report
I used to do this before but discontinued it. Given I’m currently sitting in bed now – migrated from the kitchen in the time it took you to read the opening bit and this – I’ll try to keep this as brief and as punchy as possible.
Projected Weather: 28KPH winds, raining, wet surface due to full day of rain beforehand.
Projected Weather Outcome: Kicking will be hugely important as the wet conditions stress handling and open up breakdown opportunities as teams try to play through the conditions.
Edinburgh’s Key Strengths
Edinburgh were top of the URC until recently and they were powered there by a strong, penalty winning scrum and an incredibly efficient attack that saw them rack up the third-most tries in the competition to date with the highest number of clean breaks and defenders beaten out of all sixteen teams. Last time out against Leinster, I would argue that Edinburgh had enough opportunities to win that game twice over yet somehow came out of the game without so much as a bonus point after shipping four tries themselves.
Emiliano Boffelli and Ramiro Moyano have been key players in beefing up their attack and transition play, especially when they’ve been without the outstanding Darcy Graham through injury or on Scotland duty. Edinburgh’s back three and midfield are a key transition threat for Edinburgh and Munster will need to balance the need to kick due to the conditions and the danger in giving a guy like Boffelli, in particular, too much space to make plays on the run back.
Key Men For Munster
This is a big game for Dan Goggin who, for my money, has the ability to be an incredibly valuable squad member for Munster over the next two seasons. He’s got the size, he’s got the pop in contact and he’s got the skillset to be a real threat for us in general. In this game, he’ll need all of those. Passing in the projected conditions is going to be difficult, as will kicking under pressure so I’d like to see him used as a hit up option and as a short-range passer to help build a platform for Healy to utilize.
We are going to be down primary carriers in this game from the start, so I’d expect to see Goggin used as a power option when we do decide to play ball.
That power and size issue rears its head again this week as, man for man, we’re giving up a size differential in the front five so we’ll have to be careful where and when we choose to play with possession. Edinburgh win a lot of turnovers – they won a fair few against Leinster last week – so losing collisions and playing lots of phase ball in the conditions we expect here is not sensible, for me anyway.
It’ll be crucial that Munster play the conditions first and Edinburgh second.
This is where our scrum comes into play. We have to be rock solid on both sides of the scrum because there will likely be a lot of scrums in this one, given the conditions. We don’t need to dominate, we just need to not go backwards or concede obvious penalties to a heavy Edinburgh unit. In Gavin Coombes, we have one of the most dangerous breakers off the scrum in the European game at the moment and that alone will give our props a leg up as the Edinburgh flankers contend with the idea of Coombes getting lines like this onto their halfbacks.
Off the scrum and lineout, Munster will have to kick smartly to pressure Edinburgh. They aren’t really the kick and grind side they were under Cockerill anymore, so we will have to pressure their kick receipt and exits in what are likely to be greasy conditions with swirling winds.
I don’t think kicking off #9 is the best play in the conditions. We will kick off #9 at some point – it’s inevitable – but I think the best value will be in kicking deep infield with Ben Healy taking a major role in managing where Edinburgh play from.
Long, raking kicks downfield that pressure the positioning and handling of the Edinburgh back three have the potential to really pay off for Munster in tandem with the scrum. If whoever is playing around the opponents’ 22 in this game the most will probably win, the team with the best lineout maul and maul defence will definitely win.
That would lead me to edge towards Munster in this one, despite the size differential in conditions that usually reward a size differential.
