[su_dropcap style=”flat” size=”4″]M[/su_dropcap]unster have eight games left to secure a shot at a trophy on the 27th of March 2021. The unique, shortened nature of the 2020/21 Guinness PRO14 season means that there won’t be the usual playoff structure of a quarter-final and semi-final this year. Instead, whoever tops their conference on the 20th of March 2021 will contest the PRO14 final a week later.
Munster are currently 12 points clear of Connacht and Scarlets with two games in hand at the top of Conference B and, if we can win five games between now and the 20th of March 2021 we will secure a place in that final regardless of what anyone else in our conference does.
Tantalizing, isn’t it?
Now, we might not need to win five games depending on how we go against our direct conference competitors in the next few rounds – and how they themselves do this weekend against Leinster, Dragons and the Ospreys respectively – so you might say that next week’s game against Connacht is incrementally more important to our conference prospects than this week in that it allows us to deal directly with one of the three clubs who can theoretically catch us in Conference B.
That might go some way to explaining why guys like Stander, Kleyn, Beirne, De Allende, Farrell, Coombes and O’Mahony are absent for this week’s contest. If we accept that in-conference games have become more important in this shortened season then next week’s game away to Connacht is significantly more important than this game. Our selection reflects that choice.
That does not diminish the opportunity presented by this trip to Belfast against a side that we could well be contesting a final against in a few months. The last time Munster played Ulster up in the Kingspan we got blown out the gate, shipping a heavy 38-17 loss and while Munster aren’t going to be obsessing over a year old game – especially with a rotated selection – there’s a lot to be said for answering that dispiriting performance a year ago by taking Ulster’s nine-game winning streak this weekend.
The same applies to Ulster, obviously, who may be more inclined to focus their energy on ensuring they top Conference A given they’re rapidly running out of games in the shortened European Champions Cup where they’ve already lost twice. Ulster currently hold a seven-point lead over Leinster and, with a bit of luck with COVID, they will get to deal directly with their chief in-conference rivals in the RDS next weekend. Ulster need a buffer and this fixture provides them with an opportunity to stretch out that buffer.
When you consider how tight Conference A is, this game is inherently more important for Ulster than it is for Munster in the context of both our conferences and I think both selections reflect that reality.
Ulster Rugby: 15. Jacob Stockdale, 14. Matt Faddes, 13. James Hume, 12. Stuart McCloskey, 11. Ethan McIlroy; 10. Billy Burns, 9. John Cooney; 1. Eric O’Sullivan, 2. Rob Herring, 3. Marty Moore, 4. Kieran Treadwell, 5. Sam Carter (c), 6. Matty Rea, 7. David McCann, 8. Nick Timoney
Replacements: 16. Adam McBurney, 17. Callum Reid, 18. Tom O’Toole, 19. David O’Connor, 20. Marcell Coetzee, 21. Nathan Doak, 22. Ian Madigan, 23. Ben Moxham
Ulster are a mauling team.
Every team mauls but Ulster maul about as much as anyone and a lot of their good moments against first-rate opposition over the last few weeks have come directly and indirectly from their lineout maul. When Ulster were pressing Toulouse in Belfast a few weeks ago, it was off the back of their lineout maul from close range. When you look at Ulster’s pack, you an can see why – they’ve got a heavy, low-profile front five with versatile, set-piece first flankers and two heavy, dynamic ball carriers of varying quality in Marcell Coetzee and Nick Timoney. That isn’t meant as a slight on Timoney – who I think is a good player – but I think it’s fair to say that he isn’t in the same bracket as Marcell Coetzee when it comes to ball carrying just yet.
When Ulster get into position anywhere near your 5m line, they are as dangerous as anyone but their structures off the maul from further out are as important. When I watched Ulster in detail over the last few weeks I was surprised by how often they mauled off their lineout, even when they were in central spaces. I had assumed that, with Stuart McCloskey available to hit in midfield, that Ulster would focus more of their lineout possession to hit McCloskey (and/or Coetzee) on the crash with ball off the top.
But that isn’t how Ulster use McCloskey off the set-piece most of the time. You’ll most often see McCloskey used in positions like this off the maul.
McCloskey is the “point of the spear” off the maul that Cooney times to release the ball to when their maul engages the last forward defending the openside.
Ramos was exposed in space so that opened up McCloskey for action.
McCloskey had three options on the pass – an isolated carry into Ramos, a tip onto Hume or a deep pullback to Madigan on a paired loop run with Stockdale.
He chose the carry on Ramos – the correct option, in my opinion – because the scheme worked in that it produced a one on one collision between McCloskey and a halfback with Toulouse’s forward cover arriving late. The same principle works for McCloskey’s passing work in the same scenario. His size and dynamism draw defenders onto his line and he’s got a good mid-range pass or offload to set runners away off him.
When Ulster choose to go off the top, they like to combine McCloskey with someone like Coetzee or Timoney to guarantee a collision point win before striking off tight screenplays with the likes of Burns/Madigan/Cooney perfectly suited to breaking and peeling around any edges that can be created.
As with most sides, if you can hold Ulster in these first two or three phases after the set-piece without conceding a penalty, they become incrementally easier to defend. They are also a little vulnerable around the first phase ruck if you can sneak a jackal in there; more so off their maul break structures than their crash balls off the top, but it should be there on both examples. Why? I think Ulster are a little slow to their own rucks within two phases of their own offensive maul when they do not select Murphy or Reidy.
The selection of Matty Rea and David McCann in Ulster’s back row would suggest to me that Ulster don’t plan to stray too far from what has worked for them at the lineout so far this season. A team that mauls as much as Ulster has to abide by a certain set of rules;
- Your maul drive components – the players latching onto the lift group – have to be relatively close to the launch site to effectively impact the maul before the opposition’s counter shove.
- As a result of this, the lineout scheme cannot rely on too much lateral decoy movement because not only does this throw off the opposition, it can also throw off the drive component of your maul. The guys joining the maul after the “drop” have to be in place as you land to be effective. Arriving after the landing can be too late.
- Launch position, as a result of these two factors, is hugely important.
Ulster understand these rules and Dan McFarland has ideas on maul construction that I can really get behind. Their use of Marty Moore, for example, as a primary maul drive component rather than as a back lifter utilises his size and pushing power way more effectively. I have long thought that your props are better served pushing in mauls as they do in scrums – front on rather than half bound on the jumper – and Ulster use Moore (and O’Toole) in this “engine” role quite a bit. Not on every lineout, obviously, but on enough of them that it can be a tell on some of their jump targets when we consider all the factors.
The majority of Ulster’s mauled lineouts happen in the front half of the line. They go to the tail every now and then – usually when they want to launch directly to McCloskey/Coetzee/Timoney but for the most part, they’ll be quite comfortable mauling from the middle or even the front if you give them that space.
Ulster have a high lineout completion rate in the PRO14 for this very reason – they have no issue going for the simple ball at the front if you give it to them and mauling strongly off that possession. They want the middle to make it easy for their power pushers (both props) to fold in as the maul “engine” but if they’re feeling under pressure for possession, they’ll
When you see the back of the Ulster lineout looking like Moore, Rea, Carter and Treadwell in a line the usual play for Ulster is some slight positional deception to disguise Rea lifting Carter in the middle of the lineout with Moore slotting in as engine component.
You’ll see them move around the jumping parts of the lineout – Treadwell, Carter, Rea and McCann – but that principle of the prop being a maul pusher rather than a lifter most of the time can usually clue you into the space Ulster are targeting and who they are planning on lifting.
That gives you a bit of a head start on defending them where you either stay on the floor to win the counter-shove at close range or jump on Carter’s when he arrives late into the middle space to force Ulster into a longer, slower throw to Rea at the tail where you can attack Moore’s back lift.
Ulster have a few moves they use to go to the front when they absolutely have to win possession under aerial pressure and this little hitch feint before lifting almost on the 5m line is one they use to maul and launch a screened play from.
The first example was read well by Gloucester – Cooney was looking to fling this across the lineout with the back end screening – and the second was a last-minute lineout that Toulouse weren’t going to counter jump on regardless but it shows you the plan all the same. When Ulster are mauling off this short play, O’Connor has to continue his route to bolster the touchline side of the maul, when they’re playing wide he and others will screen.
Guys like Wycherley, Holland, O’Donoghue and Ahern are set up to disrupt Ulster aerially, especially between the 22s. Any consistent aerial pressure in the joint between the middle and front of the lineout with space to drift back or push forward will have a chance of hurting Ulster in the air. Wycherley and O’Donoghue, in particular, can be quite dangerous here if they can get a good read on Ulster’s initial targets and if we reduce Ulster’s efficiency in the maul by preventing them from forming, we’ll be a long way on the road to winning this game, even with a rotated selection.
