Complacency is the biggest danger in the Western Cape on Saturday evening.
That isn’t meant to disrespect the Southern Kings – although they’d have more cause for bitterness with that opening line than Wales Online had for an entire article based on a Ryanair tweet – it is a reflection on both sides trajectory and form over the past few months.
The Southern Kings have had a difficult opening campaign in the PRO14 and find themselves with one win all season, earned two rounds ago at home against the Dragons. That solitary win in 18 games stands out to me as being a little below what the Kings are probably capable of, especially at home. They came very close to a win against a good Benetton side last week and should have beaten Ulster in George a few months back but it’s hard to argue against a weight of results like they’ve had.
Munster, in the context of recent results and the relative strength of the team selection, should be winning this game with a bit to spare but our away record – 7th overall across both conferences – will be something that should stave off any complacency. In a lot of ways, games like this in the aftermath of an emotional, dramatic win against Toulon last week would be prime banana-skin territory but I really think the change of scenery this week will have made the weekend feel far away in memory at least, if not in the fading of bumps and bruises.
Let’s have a look at the teams;
Southern Kings
15. Masixole Banda, 14. Michael Makase, 13. Jacques Nel, 12. Berton Klaasen, 11. Yaw Penxe; 10. Martin Du Toit, 9. Godlen Masimla
1. Schalk Ferreira (c), 2. Stephan Coetzee, 3. Pieter Scholtz, 4. Stephan Greeff, 5. Bobby De Wee, 6. Andisa Ntsila, 7. Martinus Burger, 8. Ruaan Lerm
Replacements: 16. Alandre Van Rooyen, 17. Justin Forwood, 18. Luvuyo Pupuma, 19. Lubabalo Mtyanda, 20. Lusanda Badiyana, 21. Rudi Van Rooyen, 22. Ntabeni Dukisa, 23. Luzuko Vulindlu
Munster
15. JJ Hanrahan, 14. Calvin Nash, 13. Dan Goggin, 12. Rory Scannell, 11. Alex Wootton; 10. Ian Keatley, 9. James Hart
1. James Cronin, 2. Niall Scannell, 3. John Ryan, 4. Jean Kleyn, 5. Gerbrandt Grobler, 6. Dave O’Callaghan, 8. CJ Stander (c)
Replacements: 16. Rhys Marshall, 17. Dave Kilcoyne, 18. Brian Scott, 19. Billy Holland, 20. Jack O’Donoghue, 21. Jack Stafford, 22. Stephen Fitzgerald, 23. Robin Copeland
This is a much stronger team selection than I would have expected in the aftermath of Toulon but it shows the relative importance of this game. A 5-0 win here would go a long way to making sure Munster keep that 2nd spot in our own hands when we return to Thomond Park for the Ulster game, regardless of what happens next week. The selection reflects that.
We’ve gone very strong in the front five and our flankers – O’Callaghan and Oliver – won’t want for motivation after this season’s injury problems. Oliver, in particular, could have a massive game on the flat, hard track of Outeniqua Park.
Hart and Keatley start at halfback, with a strong 12/13/15 axis to work with. Hanrahan gets another run at 15 which should really suit him with the kind of kick transition looks that the Kings regularly give up. Rory Scannell and Dan Goggin look like a really well-tailored midfield duo. You know what kind of quality Scannell has but look out for Goggin in this one – it’s the ideal game for a guy like him to show what he can do.
Wootton and Nash round out the starting selection and both men, Wootton in particular, have impressed this season. Nash is a guy who keeps earning game time and you can tell he’s a guy that’s highly rated. His work off the ball and positioning look really good and this is just the game for him to add to his senior try count.
The bench looks pretty strong. Copeland at 23 looks unusual but I wouldn’t expect him to come on in the backs bar an injury to someone. I’d look at Munster’s bench configuration as a classic 6-2 forward split.
CJ Stander captains the side and you’d have to wonder what he must be thinking this week. Imagine leaving George six years ago for Munster without knowing what was going to happen only to return there to play with Munster as captain after winning a Grand Slam for Ireland the month before. What a buzz it must be for him to return in such a fashion and I can think of few players that deserve that feeling more than CJ.
Some subscribers mentioned to me that I should have a classifier for the main tactical aspects of an opposition so I decided to start doing that for this game. I’ll rate the Kings on what I think of their offensive scrummaging, defensive scrummaging, lineout work, offensive maul, defensive maul, overall defensive structure, power in open play, fitness, kicking and attacking creativity, before narrowing in on specifics.
The Red Eye Report: Southern Kings
An “A” would be considered top class by Champions Cup standards, a “B” would be considered good by regular PRO14 standard, a “C” would be considered decent by regular PRO14 level, a “D” would be considered below par by PRO14 standards and an “E” would be something I’d consider an exploitable weakness.
Set Piece
Offensive Scrummaging – C
Defensive Scrummaging – E
Attacking Lineout – C
Defensive Lineout – D
Offensive Maul – C
Defensive Maul – E
Open Play
Defensive Structure – C
Phase Play Power – C
Structured Attack Off Set Piece – B
Overall Fitness – D
Kicking – C
Attacking Creativity – B
Back Three Kick Positioning – D
I’ve watched the Kings five times this season in full and I think Munster can really go after them in the scrum and maul in this game, as well as exploit their front five’s lack of fitness on multiphase possession.
First, the positives.
Any time I’ve watched the Kings live, I’ve been struck by the ease in which they go wide off all kinds of set piece, be it lineout or scrum. A lot of this is based in necessity – they don’t have a maul that they can reliably expect to gain them yards anywhere outside the 22 and their lineout structure seems to be overly complex for what it actually achieves in a positional perspective.
This lineout call – “65” – is a good example of what the Kings like to do off their lineout possession.
A fairly basic lineout setup gets the ball to their second layer strike runners where they can attack the space on either shoulder of the 13 as he moves forward on the defensive blitz.
They’ll be going after Dan Goggin in this manner early and often.
They use the same width off scrum plays and target the same channel.
Look at the pace that they move the ball with – dangerous. The Kings know that their man attacking threat is the pace of their midfield and outside backs and one look at Banda here will show you what he can do in that space that Goggin and Nash will be occupying.
Banda’s pace in the second layer is a constant go-to for the Kings regardless of the opposition and they’ll attack it repeatedly, knowing that Banda and Makase’s pace is a consistent danger there.
That’s why you’ll see probably see the Kings line up quite wide on most set pieces to maximise the space that they have to work with and stretch out the opposition, especially on scrum set plays. They can go at the 10 on certain lineout calls but again, that’s more of a pace question than a power question.
They have the passing game and pace to make these plays hurt be it off of a set piece or in open play with the right kind of ball.
The Kings have a pretty good offensive kicking game too. Tactically, they aren’t that great but they are really good at stabbing kicks behind aggressive blitz defences for their pace runners to attack.
They’re quite good at this.
Our covering back three players can make a lot of hay off Kings tendency to dink balls over the top on some big openside plays. They coughed up a kick transition against Benetton like this and have done similar in other games.
You can “give” Kings this kick option if your back three are switched on because their execution of the kick isn’t always the best.
Defensive Issues
The Kings look to have a defensive cardio issue and a pretty big pace differential between their front five and the rest of the team.
Have a look at the common denominator on these multiphase plays;
That’s right – tight five forwards defending way, way too much space on big openside plays and pacey centre-field rucks.
Benetton made good ground through these holes but not nearly as often as they should have.
Schulz, the Kings tighthead prop, is a common sight in these midfield holes and I’d expect to see him in the same scenarios this weekend. When Benetton racked any kind of dynamic phases together with enough separation to get the Kings forwards moving, the space opened up in the second channel.
Benetton couldn’t get their pace runners through these holes often enough. If Munster can get Hanrahan, Wootton, Oliver, Nash or Goggin through these holes, there’ll be tries.
Set Piece
Their scrum is decent enough going forward but I have a feeling the Munster front five will blow them off their own ball at least once, given what Cronin, Scannell, Ryan and Kleyn did to Toulon last weekend. I don’t think adding Grobler on the loosehead side of the scrum will weaken the scrum either, to state the obvious. I think we can really have a cut off them on their put in but that’s generally based on what I’ve seen from Munster against far better scrums than the Kings. Whenever I’ve watched the Kings they’ve generally been quite good on their own put in but I will say that I haven’t seen them against a front five like we’ve selected.
On our put in, I think we can really go at them, especially on the tighthead side.
Benetton had a lot of success attacking Scholz (and I’ll get to him later) in the scrum and I really think James Cronin and Niall Scannell can do an even better job of collapsing that side in this one.
Their lineout often has a lot of moving parts and generally, the more movement they have through the line, the more likely it is that De Wee is the target.
This scheme – the play call is “Eel” – gives an example of the kind of deception they try to put in place, even on shortened lineouts.
This lineout – the play call seems to be called “Olasakee” – is about as perfect a reflection of their lineout construction as you could look to see when it comes to offensive movement.
Again, De Wee is the target and you’ll not the general quality of the throw and lift. It’s quite good.
All the movement has a purpose in that they want to get counter pods into the air so they can attack with superior numbers off the next ruck. It didn’t work on this occasion and Benetton closed the door on the 10 channel fairly handily, but Munster will have to be wary of getting into a jumping battle until O’Donoghue gets on the field.
Their maul construction is interesting, but prone to getting shoved out over the touchline a little too easily for my liking, especially later in the game.
This maul setup – constructed off the lineout call “Mosafee” – is a pretty cool looking asymmetric pivot maul. I know that sounds gonky but stay with me.
Benetton just about managed to sack this front landing maul in the end but the way Kings put this together was pretty cool. De Wee and Mtyanda slide out of the lifting pod to act as a free-standing guard outside the landing spot of the maul.
At this point, they aren’t adding pressure to the attack and are basically there to act as the front to the maul that pivots into them after initial contact with Benetton.
It’s a clever construction, and it hides their main issue in the maul which is a lack of grunt. If you get a good counter-shove on them, you can collapse them pretty handily and I’ve seen them baited into taking the touchline side of a maul before getting blown into touch on a few occasions.
The Kings know they have a power disadvantage against most sides so their lineout and maul setups will reflect this.
In maul defence, they can be prone to getting out-thought and out-muscled.
The Kings get a semi-decent shove on after landing but never stop Benetton’s momentum and get run over fairly easily.
They like to stop mauls with this kind of “pinch” movement which punishes poor wall setups.
This is a gimmick to avoid an 8 on 8 contest because those are maul situations they usually lose.
If Munster get the scrum and lineout right, Kings should fall away fairly quickly. Don’t be surprised to see them score one or two tries as they have the pace and attacking width to trouble most teams. As long as Munster hit them in the areas that they’re weak in – scrum, maul, defensive organisation on multiphase – then the tries will come and come early.
It should be an interesting watch to see where we are after Toulon.
Men to Watch: Nash, Oliver, JJ Hanrahan.
