This weekend will show an awful lot.

I don’t think anyone would claim that Munster in 2019 are the finished article but just how close we are to that Finished Article will be shown this weekend against this opposition. In a lot of ways, much of last weeks game against Saracens can be safely tucked away into the memory box without too much in the way of reference. It was a tough game, played in manky, game-changing weather conditions but Mark McCall has made 12 changes to his starting XV for this week so large swathes of what we saw last week will have bigger, stronger and better players filling the roles for the most part – in all but two positions. I’ll get to that later. A lot of what we saw in the second 40 isn’t relevant but the first 40… we’ll see.

This isn’t at that make or break stage as of yet – that’s January in Paris – but there is a job to be done this weekend if we’re to leave Barnet with any positives. We’ve got to win or, failing that, prevent Saracens from getting a try bonus point while getting one ourselves. That would put us two points ahead of Saracens before the Christmas break and put all of our result pressure on the game against Racing in Paris in January.

If we can win that – assuming Saracens put five-points on Ospreys – like Racing will do this weekend – we’ll go into the last game of the pool within two points of the top with Saracens and Racing killing each other in Allianz Park on the last game of the pool while we take on the Ospreys in Thomond Park.

It all gets much more straight forward if we can win this weekend – and we can win this weekend – but getting something out of this game by hook or by crook is a must; if not for the table than for our collective confidence.

The last time Munster played in Allianz Park – all the way back in January 2015 – we were beaten out the gate 33-10. If you read Paul O’Connell’s autobiography from that day, you’ll read a story of Munster being beaten physically on a lightning-quick 4G pitch and being lucky enough to come away without conceding a fiver. The physical challenge remains the same this weekend and, in some ways, has gotten even more intense.

How far have we come, both from that day and, indeed, last season against a side very similar to this?

We’ll know by Saturday night.

The key to hurting this Saracens side is pace in attack.

Defensively, we’ll have to stop up their runners, disrupt the breakdown as much as we dare while hoping for a bit of 50/50 from Pascal Gauzere and try to make good decisions when Saracens get the ball into the wider channel in Billy Vunipola’s hand. Hit or drift onto the pass – we’ll have to be strong and low in the latter case and quick on the drift in the latter.

If Saracens are racking up 60% possession in this game, I think we’ll be in trouble the longer it goes on, the first half in particular. Saracens don’t have the same kind of stopping power off the bench as they did in Coventry in similar conditions. Slow ball and slow attacking sets over multiple phases play into Saracen’s primary advantage – size and stopping power. We’re expecting a sunny, bright, cold day tomorrow so the key for Munster will be stressing Saracens defensive sets between the carry point and previous ruck with high tempo attacking play which, hopefully, will exploit their selection choices in the pack.

We did that quite a bit in the first half last week when conditions allowed for the handling skills you need to execute it.

Munster went after the inside ball twice in this sequence.

The first was a fairly simple inside ball from O’Mahony to Kleyn coming against the grain. We got a bit of gainline from this one and quick ball presentation. Kleyn lurked behind the ruck waiting for the queue to begin his run-up;

I think we were a little constricted on this play but it still got results. O’Mahony popped it back against the grain to Kleyn and he caught Saracens’ heavy cover coming across the field laterally rather than blitzing out.

When I say “constricted” I’m referring to O’Mahony being a little too close to the ruck on this pass – understandable in context – so Kleyn was always choking down on his attack line.

The next phase saw a more expansive attack in the same vein.

The principle here is to establish the inside ball as a viable threat on every phase. The key part is the depth and width that Scannell gets off the ruck;

Saracens will have to make a decision – do they blitz, hard drift or pinch inside? Munster have established that the inside ball is a viable option, if not overall then certainly on the last phase, so we’re stressing two areas of the Saracens centre-field defence with Rory Scannell being the key pivot point.

Stander and Niall Scannell will provide inside ball threat while Farrell, Haley and Conway stress the outside defenders. There are no set decisions here – it comes down to Scannell to make the call based on the info he sees himself and the info that gets communicated to him.

Scannell went for the inside ball option here – I think the fullback position sold it to him – but it was a sound decision. The overlap on the outside would have been difficult to access and the structure was there to attack inside.

The three wider defenders were looking out and there was a bit of space to attack inside. Farrell’s line kept Lozowski and Lewington active at the edge and Stander had a real shot at beating Barrington to the gap with a bit of luck. Barrington made a great stop in the end but the space was there and it’ll be there in similar circumstances this weekend.

With enough pace on the ball we can catch Koch, Mako Vunipola or Billy Vunipola in that sweet spot just off the ruck.

That space will be there with Saracens’ heavy 7 (Mako & Billy Vunipola, Vincent Koch, Jamie George, Joel Kpoku, George Kruis and Nick Isiekwe) transitioning from the middle of the field to the edges.

Maro Itoje fills a key role for Saracens defensive efforts. He’s a “point man” for Saracens, filling in the gaps between their heavier, slower defenders using his freakish athleticism to wheel out heavy stops and cover space.

That’s going to fall on Ben Earl, Jamie George and Nick Isiekwe on this one. George makes excellent decisions but Earl and Isiekwe have a bad fold in them. Itoje prevent so many of these gaps from even occuring but he’s not playing here.

If we have the courage to go after Saracens’ big openside blitz, I think we can buy a bad read or two out of Lozowski and Tompkins in these circumstances.

This will be a lot of this squad’s second or third game of the season in Saracens’ colours. Will this they have the cohesion to come back in and play at the top of their game? Will they need to be at the top of their game to beat us? Can we start well, pressure their time and hurt them bench for bench? Will the lack of Skelton – a real game-changer for them in our last two contests with them – impact their effectiveness?

These are all live questions. If they play at their very best, we’ll have to be at a level we haven’t seen yet from this group to beat them. I genuinely believe that we have the toolset to do so but it needs to click. If it does, it could be a special, special day.