Leinster don’t have any weaknesses.
Say what you like about the rotated nature of Christmas InterPro team selections – and people have said quite a bit about that particular subject – but I genuinely don’t think that Leinster are capable of putting out a bad selection right now. All the names you might not recognise in Leinster’s matchday squad are united by one thing; if they were average players they wouldn’t be there. Even then, those inexperienced players are slotted in around proven test calibre or close to test calibre players and that’s the challenge facing Munster this weekend.
This is far from a “we win at home/you lose away” set of rotations that the Christmas InterPros often get accused of fostering. Leinster are a dangerous opponent regardless of who they play and the players included by Leo Cullen here are more than capable of winning this game, despite some of them not having the billing of a James Ryan, Tadhg Furlong or Garry Ringrose.
Leinster might be rotated, but they are no less capable of winning this game as a result. Those enforced changes might rankle but they are the one time of the year when the IRFU can guarantee that the rotations are fair.
The World Cup and the subsequent tight scheduling of four Champions Cup games in short order directly after has put a lot of pressure on Ireland’s test players. The mandatory two week rest period – no games and no training – for players involved in the World Cup and that block of Champions Cup games is one of the few opportunities that the IRFU have to sink a bit of pure recovery time into those test players ahead of the Six Nations to help avoid burnout, of both mind and muscle.
That’s no guarantee that the rotated players won’t pick up an injury on their return – the game is too tough to guarantee anything like that – but those clean weeks of recovery are a proven ward against the kind of soft tissue injuries that can steal months from a player’s season.
The fairness of the rotation comes down to what your second layer of players looks like and Leinster’s is top class. Not only are their development players this season – the O’Briens, Connors, Murphy, Doris – looking like proper players, but their signings from outside provide top-class quality that isn’t affected by IRFU rotation. Fardy, Lowe and Gibson-Park are excellent players and with lads like Porter, Cronin, Toner and Byrne in the same squad, you can get an appreciation of the dangers that lie below the waterline of this Leinster selection.
I genuinely believe that Munster are getting closer to overall squad depth but the gap that Leinster have established over the last four years will take longer than the first four months of a season to close. The squad we’ve selected here reflects that growing depth outside of the test starters like Conway, Earls, Farrell, Stander, O’Mahony, Kleyn, Scannell but this game will be a harsh proving ground. Where are we as a squad? This game will show us an awful lot. Guys with test aspirations and I’m talking about Wycherley, Arnold, O’Donoghue, Loughman, Nash, O’Byrne, Scannell, Haley even Hanrahan, McCarthy and Jack O’Sullivan down the road, will have to show that they are able to compete with the guys like Connors, Gibson-Park, Byrne, and Doris that are currently ahead of them, at least in terms of recognition.
A win and a dominant performance here would go a long way to showing Andy Farrell – and the public at large – that they are ready to be considered for higher representation.
***
Defensively, I think we’ll be doing very well to disrupt Leinster’s lineout given they have five legit jumping options in their back five, including the ultimate bailout ball man in Devin Toner. Once Leinster get into their attacking shape off that first phase ball they’re incredibly good at retaining that possession amongst the forwards and giving Ross Byrne roll ball options if the defensive shape.
Ideally, you’d cut that ball off at the source and Jack O’Donoghue/Billy Holland/Fineen Wycherley have certainly shown an aptitude for getting into the opposition’s throwing lanes this season but it’ll be a key part of preventing Leinster from starting into 10+ phases of possession.
James Tracey does have a bit of an issue with his loft ball throw and, combined with Toner, I think we can possibly get good results from pressurising around four while timing our counter launch off his throw.
The same goes for their work off transition ball but I think we can work with kicking directly to James Lowe as long as our chase from Goggin/Daly is of sufficient quality. The problem comes when Lowe is the second man onto the ball on transition so our defensive reset after the kick will need to be sharp and, with the pack we’ve picked here, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be.
Our own ball is going to have to be spotless, to tell you something you already know.
I’ve seen a small pattern of Leinster conceding gainline off the lineout on phase one and two. That’s consistent through the last couple of games.
With Leinster’s tight five – and Murphy/O’Connor – I think we can hit that “flex” at the back of the Leinster lineout if we can get clean pace ball at Four.
This came off a six-man lineout. If Leinster are consistent on their alignments, this will probably mean Will Connors is the man defending in midfield.
What we want is to stand him up next to Ross Byrne and then look to attack this space outside. We’ll need to win the race from Four to the point of contact in the seam between Connors and Byrne, but if we can do that we can separate out the midfield.
Tommy and Conor O’Brien are good players but inexperienced defenders. I think we can overload their midfield by pressurising Leinster’s forward spacing between the tail of the lineout the first back defender – Ross Byrne.
It won’t look exactly like this but the theory is the same.
I think this is where Dan Goggin will play a big role coming in off the wing. He’s exactly the type of runner we want standing up defenders in the #10 channel.
In practicality, I think it’ll look a little more like this;
We’ll need Sam Arnold to earn some respect with the ball in hand man on man early on but if we can (a) win that race from Four to midfield and (b) earn the respect of Connors and the other tail defenders, we can create that overload scenario off first phase lineout possession.
Do not be fooled by the inexperienced names in this Leinster selection. Any team with Porter, Toner, Fardy, Byrne and James Lowe in it has a big chance of getting a result. Munster will need a massive night from our front five and a little more variation from Kilcoyne with ball in hand. I have a bit of concern when it comes to front five on front five in open play but we look like we’ve picked a team to widen our structure off #9 and go after Leinster in that transition zone between backs and forwards.
If you look at Leinster’s defensive structure, you’ll often see Andrew Porter defending out beyond the “C” defender, which can be someone like Fardy/Toner. This is a pretty good place for Porter to defend because he’s a big heavy stopper and he’s got good mobility in space. It’s a relatively low-risk play for Leinster and gives them big defensive security off any forward plays off #9.
If we can bring our back three in off a progression across the field – hide them behind the previous ruck – I think we might have the option of slicing Daly or Haley in at on the slide when Leinster double tackle a Munster forward in that “C” area.
