[su_dropcap style=”flat” size=”4″]R[/su_dropcap]ugby returning is a relief. It’s a return to normality, a sign that we’re maybe a little bit closer to the end than the start of this unprecedented yadda yadda yadda, look we’re all delighted to see our sport and our teams return and all but let’s be real, the levels of kumbaya will be in short supply the second the ball is kicked off. That’s normality.
This isn’t a knock-out game (that might come against the same opposition in a few weeks) but the closer we get to Saturday, the more it feels like a game that has a lot more significance attached to it than it might seem. Yes, it’s the first game back after the lockdown and that alone has a deeper meaning. Yes, it’ll be a feeling-out process where we expect a fair few errors and penalties on both sides, but this isn’t the same Munster that struggled but came up short against Racing, Saracens and Leinster in the pre-COVID world.
Expectations have changed. In previous years, Munster’s failures at the business end of tournaments were eminently understandable because we were lacking in key areas that correlate with success at the very highest level. We just weren’t big enough or strong enough in the tight five to play with the kind of platform that allows you to play winning rugby easily. Various attempts that had been made over the previous seasons to address that discrepancy – primarily in the second row – but each one was met with constant frustration.
One of the very first things that Rassie Erasmus did when he joined Munster in 2016 was to tempt Jean Kleyn away from his contract at the Stormers with the idea that he would play as a tighthead lock alongside Donnacha Ryan in Munster’s second row.
Kleyn’s year immediately after signing was, unfortunately, disrupted with a few niggly injuries and we didn’t get to see as much of that partnership as we perhaps would have liked. Donnacha Ryan left for Racing 92 at the end of the season – something of an unplanned exit, if not particularly shocking – and that lead to the signing of Gerbrandt Grobler on an initial one year deal from Racing. According to Grobler, there was talk of offering him a three-year deal before the national media caught up with what everyone else had known on the day he was signed.
You can see the same thought process around that attempted recruitment. Grobler was – and still is – an outstanding loosehead lock that would have fit in perfectly next to Kleyn but, as with Kleyn the previous season, Grobler missed a lot of the season through an unfortunate injury in a preseason game against Worcester and never fully managed to get back into regular contention, in part due to the controversy that overtook him in the winter of 2017/18. If we take Grobler at his word that a longer extension was on the cards at Munster prior to the controversy, that would have dovetailed with Munster’s announced signing of Tadhg Beirne in October 2017. Was the “plan” – as much as you can plan anything in this game – to play Beirne as a half-lock alongside a second row of Grobler and Kleyn? We’ll never know but we do know what happened with Grobler; he shipped off to Gloucester on a two-year deal and Beirne replaced him as the primary loosehead lock alongside Kleyn for the 2018/19 season.
Kleyn and Beirne played a fair bit alongside each other but Kleyn has had a few sticky injuries over the last two years that have meant we’ve seen a lot of Holland/Beirne as our starting second row since 2018/19. That has played into our “lack of size” when it comes to projecting force in the front five, in my opinion. Both Beirne and Holland are excellent players – I think Holland, in particular, is the most underrated Irish forward of the last 10 years – but you could make an argument that they are slightly “undersized” for the second row when we look at what the very best sides in Europe have been playing.
That isn’t to say that Beirne or Holland won’t play or start in the second row this season – Holland, in particular, will be particularly valuable as a start in the early part of the restart as a lineout caller and forward handler – but in the long-term for this season and at times during games, Snyman and Kleyn alongside each other will be a big part of our A-game.
Tadhg Beirne is far from small – he’s 6’6″ and 113kg – but to get a clue on how Munster might be considering his role, I think the 2019 Champions Cup final is an instructive piece of pack construction. In that game, Mark McCall selected Maro Itoje (6’5″ and 115kg) at #6 with Will Skelton (6’8″ and 125kg) and George Kruis (6’6″ and 123kg) in the second row. When you consider “size” in any pack you are rarely talking about just one player – it is a combination of players in specific micro-units.
England, for example, often went with Itoje and Kruis in the second row over the last calendar year but balanced out Itoje’s relative lack of size with Billy Vunipola in their pack construction from a ball carrying and impact defence perspective. That put pressure on England’s lineout to deliver and they did this by shortening their lineout – 52% of their lineouts in the 2020 Six Nations were 5-man schemes. This meant that Itoje and Kruis could alternate as primary options in shortened schemes and, if they were precise enough, it would allow them to play with Curry and Underhill in the back-row with a non-jumping forward asset in Billy Vunipola.
England’s offensive phase play size was balanced with Billy Vunipola, Mako Vunipola, Tom Curry and Manu Tuilagi. Their defensive phase play size was unaffected as Itoje is a massively impactful defensive asset. Their lineout was balanced by shortening it – not just reducing the options for themselves but also for the opposition’s counter – so that they could bet big on Itoje and Kruis with Curry as an alt option with Lawes as a replacement if things went sour.
It is a question of balance and Munster have been looking for the same balance of size, role filling and ball carrying gravity.
In RG Snyman, I think Munster have found the balance that they were looking for. This game gives us an opportunity to wield real size and real power in the front five for the first time in a number of seasons and while I think we’re a piece or two away from filling exactly what Van Graan has been looking for, the strides we’ve made on this round of recruitment has been exactly what the doctor ordered based on where we fell short over the last few seasons.
Let’s have a look at the teams.
Leinster: 15. Jordan Larmour, 14. Dave Kearney, 13. Garry Ringrose, 12. Robbie Henshaw, 11. James Lowe; 10. Johnny Sexton (c), 9. Luke McGrath; 1. Cian Healy, 2. Rónan Kelleher, 3. Andrew Porter, 4. Ryan Baird, 5. Scott Fardy, 6. Caelan Doris, 7. Josh van der Flier, 8. Jack Conan
Replacements: 16. Seán Cronin, 17. Ed Byrne, 18. Michael Bent, 19. Devin Toner, 20. Will Connors, 21. Jamison Gibson-Park, 22. Ross Byrne, 23. Max Deegan
This looks like a Munster side designed to act in two different component groups.
Some of the personnel issues are injury-related – Tommy O’Donnell starts instead of Jack O’Donoghue and Beirne isn’t quite ready after returning to training this week – but the overall scheme looks to place a big emphasis on attacking Leinster in two key areas, the lineout and the scrum. Jean Kleyn’s position on the bench could mean two things – he is not ready to start after returning from a thigh injury just last week or/and Munster are looking to play big in the second half, all going to plan.
Billy Holland’s inclusion from the start hints at two things; he’s one of our primary lineout callers – Kleyn doesn’t do this, Beirne is injured and Snyman isn’t here long enough to have the playbook down to the level required. Holland is an effective, unselfish player who also happens to be one of our biggest passing forwards over the last season. I think he will play a 50-minute max role in this game if all goes to plan.
I keep mentioning “all going to plan” because any bench plan is dependent on there being no injuries before the planned replacement.
If we look at this Munster teamsheet a little closer, we see a massive tighthead scrummaging side on the bench – Kleyn and Ryan – and I would hazard a guess that they will come on the field at roughly the same time. Kilcoyne is one of our primary ball carriers too, so seeing him in a bench role is a clear nod to maintaining our ball carrying across the 80 minutes in a way that having Cronin coming off the bench might not.
The question for me will be if we’ll see Snyman scrummaging on the tighthead side for the first half, switching when Kleyn comes on or being replaced by Kleyn – we’ll wait and see, but I think the pairing of Snyman and Kleyn is one we’ll see at the same time if at all possible. Snyman will be an obvious attraction in this game and I’m curious about how he’ll be used across the full 80 minutes. We know he can carry equally well off #9 or #10 and I think his roles in the tight will be dovetail with how and where he carries the ball in phase play.
Everything else is mostly as I had expected from a selection perspective, even when you drop in the injury to O’Donoghue. O’Donnell will fill mostly the same role, albeit with more lineout focus now falling on Synman, Holland and O’Mahony as opposed to playing with four legitimate primary jumpers as we might have done with Beirne or O’Donoghue in the back row. O’Donnell gives us a lot of front up tackles and a lot of ball-carrying presence, if not massive impact.
Handling Leinster’s selection will be difficult, but not impossible. The key to Leinster’s attacking shape is finding their hidden loops. We’ve all see James Lowe looping around the Leinster 10/12 on maul breaks and if you know anything about Johnny Sexton, you’ll know he likes to run a loop. Sexton doesn’t loop all that much anymore but instead, Leinster loop around him.
On regular phase play, Leinster will bring Lowe and Kearney – two of their most effective loopers – off their wing and across the field as strike running options to link up with Larmour. When Leinster detect any kind of defensive compression, they leave the ball out to Sexton who has flat runners (Henshaw and Ringrose) with layered runners (Lowe or Kearney) depending on the side of the field and the phase count progression.
Here’s an example from the Leinster game at Xmas and a mini-breakdown from my Derailing The Big East series on this loop line running.
Leinster picked up a 4 on 2 overload on the edge of the Munster defence. Keenan drives hard across the field but it’s Lowe coming in off his wing that creates this loop.
If you look at the attacking set up laterally, James Lowe is Dan Goggin’s man to guard but when Lowe heads off infield, Goggin stays in place as you would expect. Goggin was selected on the wing for this game so, traditionally, that defensive position has a lot of north/south movement as you dip into the backfield and then step up into the edge space.
I mean, look at how effective it is at overloading Northampton on a relatively basic forward progression across the field.
Look for the hidden loop runners at the start of the GIF.
Northampton have a pretty decent handle on Leinster’s edge attack as the ball hits off #9. If the line holds as it is now, you’d back the Saints to number up well enough with Leinster at this point as long as the defensive line keeps filing out as the ball progresses.
But those numbers are soon swallowed up by the loop running back three joining up with Lowe in the 15m channel.
A comfortable 4 on 4 becomes a very dangerous 6 on 4/3 on the outside edge with Leinster surging around the corner.
Leinster went for an offload play between Ringrose and Henshaw but they still had numbers after the ruck reset, with Doris running a tight screen decoy. It almost works.
I think if the Saints are worried about Sexton’s breaking threat as opposed to Byrne’s, I think Larmour and Lowe break through this gap.
This loop running is a key part of Leinster’s attack and a lot of Munster’s defensive focus will be attacking Leinster’s setups off #9. Looking at their selection, I think that puts a lot of pressure on Porter, Healy, Baird and Conan first up with Doris and Henshaw acting as key release hitters. For me, I think that Munster’s primary way of defending Leinster’s loop system is to attack their set up breakdown off #9 but this relies on getting gain line parity at least and forcing Leinster to play more off Sexton than they want.
Leinster’s loop system is reliant on a steady forward progression based on forward interplay to move the ball laterally while the attack loops behind it. If Sexton is forced to play more, he opens up himself (and Leinster’s structure) to one on one defensive action. Looking at Sexton’s post-lockdown physique might suggest that he’s expecting that extra contact but it remains to be seen how it plays out.
I think any situation that exposes Sexton to De Allende in open phase play or off the set-piece is something that Munster will see as a positive.
Either way, a lot will be expected of Leinster’s pack without James Ryan.
When I look at Leinster’s front five, in particular, I see Porter as the key player in this selection, in much the same way as he was in the reverse fixture in Thomond Park back in December. He is going to be a big factor for Leinster in defence (both in-tackle and as a breakdown obstacle) and probably on-ball too but a lot will depend on how the scrummage goes. If I’m Munster, I see attacking Porter consistently as a big target to chase after. In Thomond Park at Christmas, Porter was Leinster’s top tackler in a game where they expected to see less of the ball and planned their game around it. Without Ryan or Furlong, Porter is the tight engine of this Leinster pack and the sooner we can max him out, the better. Michael Bent is an experienced, valuable operator for Leinster but he is not of the same quality as Porter or Furlong – that is a joint in this Leinster pack that we must twist.
Munster are teed up to go big in the scrum in this game. Niall Scannell and James Cronin are aggressive, technical scrummagers and Archer is a good lock-out tighthead when he’s at his best. With Snyman playing THL – an assumption – we should have the power there to give Scannell and Cronin a chance to attack Porter. Every second Porter is under pressure in the scrum, is a minute less he has on the field in open-play.
That isn’t to say that there’s nothing to worry about in the rest of Leinster’s pack – far from it. Conan will be rearing for road after his injury troubles, Baird will get a chance to back up the massive expectation placed on his shoulders and Doris will get a chance to further enhance his Irish credentials. I think their use of a 6/2 split is a nod to their current injury issues and a mark of where they feel they will come under the most pressure in this game.
I can’t help but look at their lineout and possible lineout schemes as a possible avenue for Munster to explore. Fardy will be the key part of their lineout as both a caller and their most experienced jumper. If Leinster’s role discipline is what it was pre-lockdown, Doris’ selection at #6 will see him rotate in as a primary jumping option with Fardy and Baird. I think there’s excellent value in stepping on the front of the Leinster lineout with O’Mahony making the easy ball to Two difficult and then allowing Holland to read Leinster’s work at the tail as a lifter. We want to pressure Kelleher – an inexperienced thrower – to find a high lob to Fardy going backwards at Four with Snyman bringing his massive wingspan and frame into play on the counter.
If we can get Kelleher looking for Baird or Doris at the end of a complicated series of feints, I think we’ll be in a good position to disrupt their launches and force them into more kicking.
On our side of the throw, I think we’ll be able to play a little bigger than we have in recent seasons, even from the start. I’d expect us to mix up a few five-man schemes to give us O’Donnell and Stander alongside Farrell and De Allende in midfield. How De Allende and Farrell combine will be a key part of the winning and losing of this game. If we can generate reliable lineout and scrum possession, De Allende will be a massive threat to Sexton and, by extension, narrow Henshaw onto Sexton.
This should open up the match-up we want, which is Farrell one on one with Ringrose with a bit of space to work. Everything we do should be focused on pinning Leinster in the #10 channel, extending the space between Henshaw and Ringrose and then launching De Allende OR Farrell onto Ringrose with a positive angle.
Both Farrell and De Allende have underrated passing games to go with their undoubted size and power.
Leinster will have to plan for the ball carrying impact of both our midfielders for the first time in a number of seasons and it’ll be interesting to see how we use this on the set-piece and during phase play. You can split Farrell and De Allende to either side of a ruck if you want but I think loading them on both sides is the optimal play.
During phase play, I think we want a picture like this example from Leinster vs Benetton earlier in the season.
Benetton made a mess of this one with the knock-on but this is exactly the kind of scenario we want to impose on Leinster and it isn’t a massively difficult picture to generate, especially in the second half with Toner on the field. This was a 12/13 move from Benetton off a fairly rudimentary forward hit-up off #9. They got quick ball, released to #10 and then he fed his 12 and 13 coming on the surge.
The inside Benetton player (#12) holds O’Loughlin and that produces a one on one isolation for their outside centre. It’ll be Henshaw in that spot tomorrow but this is where we can attack Ringrose in open play and how the physical presence of Damian De Allende could possibly open it up.
Any Munster attack that can slide across the field off a relatively wide forward hit-up can bring Ringrose into play. It isn’t that Ringrose is a poor defender – he isn’t – it’s that he has physical limitations the same as any other player and there is a size mismatch between himself and Farrell (and De Allende) that we finally have the power to exploit fully.
That same power could also open up Lowe to being exploited because anything that can narrow Leinster’s midfield opens up an angled kick through to hit Lowe in the one area he isn’t elite – his acceleration.
Leinster are a bit reduced from what I could class as their Category 1 team if everyone is fit. In an ideal Munster scenario, there will be times when this Leinster pack looks a little underpowered, especially in the second half. I’m a huge fan of Ryan Baird’s potential and rate Scott Fardy as the best foreign signing for an Irish province since Doug Howlett but they look to me to be two half-locks in a position where their lack of specialisation might be exploited at some point during the game in tight scenarios like the scrum and maul.
This could be a Leinster back-five set up to play a wider, more handling focused game than we saw previously but I would have concerns about their front five bench replacements as the game wears on if I were wearing blue this weekend. For Munster, this game is the biggest opportunity in a while to generate a statement win against our northeasterly cousins. Expectation has increased but so has our firepower and this matchday squad looks like it has weaponry for the full 80 minutes in every department.
Leinster should have more cohesion and that will play a big role in the direction of this game but it remains to be seen if there’s any home advantage to wield when it comes to the breakdown battle, which will be an obvious focal point for both sides. Munster look to have more breakdown specialists across the bench transition – Cronin, O’Mahony, Stander with Cloete on the bench – but with no evidence of how both sides have worked under the new interpretations it’s hard to make any judgements in advance as to who will come out on top. I would imagine that there’ll be a fair few penalties regardless and that’s why I think Munster’s slight edge in the lineout and extra physicality in midfield could play a key role in the direction of this game.
Either way, it’s a joy to be writing a Red Eye and I hope you enjoy the game whatever the result.
#SUAF
