[su_dropcap style=”flat” size=”4″]I[/su_dropcap]t would be a comforting thought to assume that this version of Punished Saracens are merely fulfilling a fixture before slinking off to the English second tier for a year of recrimination, reflection and redemption. But it would be a lie.
Saracens might be reduced from the matchday squad that defeated Leinster in Newcastle in a game that seems like it was five years ago but apparently happened back in May 2019 but, make no mistake, they have the weapons to hurt Leinster in this quarter-final. Sure, they’re missing seven starters and four replacements through a mixture of hasty salary cap rejigging and suspension, but does that mean that they have suddenly become a poorly coached side or that the four test Lions and multiple internationals they have on their roster have levelled down?
That isn’t a rhetorical question by the way. The answer is no.
When I look at this Saracens selection, I don’t see a squad decimated by salary cap restructuring – I see a big, physical pack stuffed with world-class options in four of the front five positions, highly capable operators in Swinson, Wray and Rhodes and the best ball carrying forward on the planet in Billy Vunipola with an experienced, highly functional backline and halfbacks.
Leinster are favourites in my eyes – just about – but the threat that Saracens pose cannot and will not be underestimated.
Let’s have a look at the teams.
Leinster: 15. Jordan Larmour, 14. Hugo Keenan, 13. Garry Ringrose, 12. Robbie Henshaw, 11. James Lowe; 10. Johnny Sexton (c) 9. Luke McGrath; 1. Cian Healy, 2. Seán Cronin, 3. Andrew Porter, 4. Devin Toner, 5. James Ryan, 6. Caelan Doris, 7. Will Connors, 8. Jack Conan
Replacements: 16. Rónan Kelleher, 17. Ed Byrne, 18. Michael Bent, 19. Ryan Baird, 20. Josh Van Der Flier, 21. Jamison Gibson-Park, 22. Ross Byrne, 23. Rory O’Loughlin
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Saracens: 15. Elliot Daly, 14. Alex Lewington, 13. Duncan Taylor, 12. Brad Barritt, 11. Sean Maitland; 10. Alex Goode, 9. Richard Wigglesworth; 1. Mako Vunipola, 2. Jamie George, 3. Vincent Koch, 4. Maro Itoje, 5. Tim Swinson, 6. Michael Rhodes, 7. Jackson Wray, 8. Billy Vunipola
Replacements: 16. Tom Woolstencroft, 17. Richard Barrington, 18. Alec Clarey, 19. Callum Hunter-Hill, 20. Calum Clark, 21. Aled Davies, 22. Manu Vunipola, 23. Dom Morris
Leinster are missing two key forwards for this game relative to what we know about how these two teams match up with each other over this three-game series that has taken place since 2018. When Leinster soundly defeated a Vincent Koch and Billy Vunipola-less Saracens side in 2018, Dan Leavy and Tadhg Furlong played a massive role.
When Saracens ground out Leinster in the Champions Cup final in Newcastle a year later, the Big East never looked like they missed the unique power that Dan Leavy gives them more in a big game. Leavy is still on the road to recovery after his devastating injury in early 2019 and it might be easy to look at Leinster’s march through the 2020 season up until now as being evidence that he is a “nice to have” rather than a “must-have” part of their side but nothing could be further from the truth.
Leavy is a key physical component of what Leinster (and Ireland) used to dominate all opponents in Spring 2018. Without him, Leinster looked a little light last season against Saracens in the tight exchanges and if you add Furlong to the same injured list against pretty much the same pack this time around, I’m not sure what has changed.
Saracens aren’t Northampton, or Lyon, or Bennetton. Saracens aren’t a game but limited Ulster side. Saracens aren’t a Munster selection without three of their four primary forward ball carriers.
This Saracens selection is the biggest physical challenge that Leinster have faced since, well, the last time they faced off in the Champions Cup final of 2019.
Without Leavy (and Furlong), Leinster’s ball carrying rotation looks weaker than it did back in May 2019 and while Saracens have lost most of their oppressive depth, I look at Billy Vunipola, Mako Vunipola, Jamie George, Vincent Koch, Michael Rhodes, Brad Barritt and Maro Itoje and think that there are problems here for Leinster when it comes to winning collisions on both sides of the ball.
For much of last year’s final – especially the last 10 minutes of the first half and most of the second – Leinster looked like they were giving up a lot of size and power against most of the players starting for Saracens on Saturday. I look at the addition of Will Connors to Leinster’s starting back row for his European debut instead of Josh Van Der Flier and I see Cullen/Lancaster conceding that something will have to be done to rebalance the physical stakes.
Connors isn’t as complete a player as Van Der Flier but he’s a dominant tackler and Leinster will need that against Saracens ball-carrying rotation.
A lot of the media chatter over the last few weeks since the restart has been trying to reduce one of the basic truths of the modern game – size matters and whoever applies the most pressure usually wins games.
When trying to assess this game, I try to ask myself what Mark McCall will have noticed over the last few weeks on his Leinster side relative to what he knows he has at Saracens.
(1) He’ll have seen Leinster comfortably D Munster and Ulster up but he’ll also have noticed that both those sides had ball-carrying issues in the forwards that don’t apply to Saracens. From an offensive perspective, Leinster have struggled to generate non-penalty momentum from inside the 10m lines for whatever reason.
(2) He’ll have noticed that Leinster struggled to contain Munster and Ulster’s box kicking from a retention perspective and that they struggled to generate momentum in the resulting phases, leading to McGrath’s relatively average box kicking limiting Leinster’s ability to return in kind.
(3) The Leinster lineout has looked a little ropey under pressure and, for the moment at least, one of their more experienced lineout forwards (Scott Fardy) is not on the bench and they’ve made a change at hooker.
That, to me, would suggest that Saracens will look to box kick at Keenan and Larmour with a big onus on Lewington, Daly and Maitland pressurising the receipt in a way that prevents any kind of release for Leinster in transition. Saracens will use their defensive kick-chase to hem Leinster in for a few phases – their front five is crucial here – and look to pressure Leinster into a kick exit.
Saracens experimented with leaving Billy Vunipola in the backfield on kick returns prior to the lockdown (over the last two seasons, really) and I’d expect to see a lot of him in this position when Saracens receive a box-kick within three phases of a box kick of their own.
Here’s an example of how that looks;
This wasn’t a great box kick from Wasps – it drifted too far infield – but Vunipola is an underrated handler in the backfield and he creates a natural compression on the opposition’s openside kick-chase transition. On the above example, that compression created a kick opportunity for Farrell with Maitland and Daly chasing hard against a stood up wide-defence.
When Saracens get an opportunity to stretch their legs off an opposition box-kick – McGrath’s accuracy will be crucial – they have the capacity to get the ball wide. Check out this movement from their recent game against Wasps, pre-Farrell’s clothesline.
Once the ball was settled in the wider channels, Saracens came back across the field and, even with a central ruck from Barritt, the “gravity” of Itoje and Vunipola’s split-screen creates space for Daly to make a play.
Daly lurks behind a forward screen that naturally compresses the openside defence.
Vunipola’s break infield holds the likes of Willis from tracking across – it’ll be Connors trying to fill the same gap this weekend – and Itoje draws the eye of the edge defenders.
That leaves a lane for Farrell to find Daly and Saracens slice around the outside and create a try-scoring opportunity for Maitland.
Saracens work on kick transition is extremely dangerous and it’s something that you don’t really associate with them but they box-kick to create these favourable scenarios and they have the power and handline to make them stick.
That’s the biggest factor in the game, for me. Handling Saracens box kicking strategies is the key to Leinster building a score in this game. They will get penalty opportunities – kickable and driveable – but how they handle their kick receipts and the phases immediately after will be important in the winning of this game. Saracens are experts at making you play their game and they have the power to make you waste a third of the game in your own 22 looking to find a way to get gain line parity against some of the biggest, heaviest, most athletic defenders in the sport.
Leinster’s pack (and bench) selection in the forwards reflects this power battle perfectly.
