Forget about the corny, embarrassing tomahawk chop chant and Native American imagery which is a direct ripoff of almost everything that the Florida Seminoles have been doing for the last 40 years, Exeter are a serious side. When you consider that their branding off the field is a context-free rip-off of what worked elsewhere, it’s somewhat appropriate that everything they currently do on the field is a fully contextualised and expertly realised visualisation of what has been shown to work at the top end of European rugby.
We all know Exeter’s origin story from National Division 1 to the Premiership at the turn of the last decade but the story that really interests me is their rise from 2014 to 2020 – from contenders and perennial big game losers against Saracens to European Champions. The Exeter we know today are a great blend of homegrown talent, smart value signings and, as they have ascended to the level of European Champions, top-class test-standard recruitment in key areas. Their three losses to Saracens in Premiership finals, on top of key losses against Leinster, Clermont and Munster in the pool stages of the Champions Cup, seemed to show Rob Baxter one thing – it is better to be bigger.
Rob Baxter’s men are chasing back to back European trophies and are playing a brand of rugby that seems perfectly suited to the realities of winning trophies, as opposed to the pointless aesthetics that make highlight reels but that rarely sees anything more than flame emojis, STOP THIS SICK FILTH and forlorn questions of why it doesn’t produce consistently winning rugby at the highest level against the best teams.
That isn’t to say that Exeter aren’t capable of balling – they have added Stuart Hogg to their backfield at great expense specifically to increase their effectiveness on kick transition – but most of what Exeter does best happens from 1 to 8 and 16 to 20.
Which is quite similar to Leinster, when you think about it. I know the old cliche is about Leinster’s backline but much of what we know about the Leinster of the last few years has been closer to Blunt Force Trauma than “Leinstertainment”. This is how trophies are won in the modern game and so it has gone for Leinster, who have four PRO14 titles in four years. If you can’t stand up to the physical pressure Leinster are able to exert through the forwards, you’ve got a punchers chance and that’s about it.
That’s how it’s been in the PRO14 for Leinster, where they face teams who are not as complete as they are be it Category 3, 2 or 1 games. Forget about those Connacht and Osprey wins over a heavily rotated Leinster pack in the RDS. That game was only a shock if you buy into the nonsense that a Leinster B team could win the PRO14 outright. It is no coincidence that when Leinster really want (or need) to win a game in the PRO14, they always bring out two or more of their heavy hitters in the pack and front five – Healy, Porter, Kelleher, Furlong, Toner – because they know that when they roll with those players, they become incrementally harder to attack with the ball in hand.
Munster didn’t lose to Leinster in Thomond Park in 2019 and again in March because Leinster cut us to pieces with thrilling attacking rugby – we lost because Leinster know as well as anyone that if you’re winning defensive collisions off #9 and around the fringes of the ruck, you stop most teams most of the time if your outside defence isn’t a complete liability. Devin Toner, for example, isn’t much of an attacking threat these days and you might make an argument that he’s not even as effective in the lineout as he has been for most of his career but I’ll tell you what he is still good at – not losing defensive collisions. He might not be a guy who destroys runners backwards but he rarely ever loses collisions to the point where he collapses his part of near ruck defensive line. Andrew Porter, when deployed primarily as a defensive stopper, especially alongside a guy like Will Connors, can make a claim to be one of the best front five defenders playing in Europe because of the leverage he denies the opposition off #9.
It’s no surprise that the teams who beat a full-strength Leinster side over the last three seasons do so through the forwards first – Saracens x 2, Toulouse – and when they do, Leinster look as vulnerable as any team does when they lose more collisions off #9 than they can live with.
The key question for this game is, with most other things being equal, can Exeter make Leinster look vulnerable in these forward collisions?
Let’s have a look at the teams.
Leinster: 15. Hugo Keenan, 14. Jordan Larmour, 13. Rory O’Loughlin, 12. Robbie Henshaw, 11. James Lowe, 10. Johnny Sexton (c), 9. Luke McGrath, 1. Cian Healy, 2. Ronán Kelleher, 3. Tadhg Furlong, 4. Scott Fardy, 5. Devin Toner, 6. Rhys Ruddock, 7. Josh Van Der Flier, 8. Jack Conan
Replacements: 16. James Tracy, 17. Ed Byrne, 18. Ross Molony, 20. Ryan Baird, 21. Hugh O’Sullivan, 22. Ross Byrne, 23. Dave Kearney
Exeter: 15. Stuart Hogg, 14. Olly Woodburn, 13. Henry Slade, 12. Ollie Devoto, 11. Tom O’Flaherty, 10. Joe Simmonds (c), 9. Jack Maunder, 1. Ben Moon, 2. Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3. Tomas Francis, 4. Jonny Gray, 5. Jonny Hill, 6. Dave Ewers, 7. Jacques Vermeulen, 8. Sam Simmonds
Replacements: 16. Jack Yeandle, 17. Alec Hepburn, 18. Harry Williams, 19. Sam Skinner, 20. Jannes Kirsten, 21. Stu Townsend, 22. Harvey Skinner, 23. Ian Whitten
When I look at this Exeter selection, I see a product of hard lessons and smart recruitment by Rob Baxter.
It would be easy to look at Exeter’s three final defeats to Saracens and assume that a wild change of direction was needed. Exeter have always had a relatively good forward pack but a weaker Director of Rugby might have come to the conclusion that he needed to radically overhaul his team’s style. What they were doing wasn’t working against Saracens so why not change it up to a more expansive style?
Instead, he doubled down.
Sure, Baxter signed Stuart Hogg (even going so far as to essentially salary cap trade Santiago Cordero for him) and Alex Cuthbert over a two year period to augment the quality he already had in his back three – Jack Nowell, Olly Woodburn and Tom O’Flaherty are all good players – but he made a beefing up his pack a priority.
Exeter signed Jannes Kirsten, Jacques Vermuelen and Jonny Gray in the time since Exeter last lost to Saracens in a Premiership final. Sure, Saracens salary cap cheating took them off the table for the time being but Baxter knew that going away from what Exeter had shown they were top class at was a losing strategy. Exeter were really good in defence and effective in attack. They just needed to do those two primary moments of the game better and shore up one of the other moments. If he wanted to make his side better on Defensive Transition, I think Baxter would have signed more wing forwards or midfielders. Instead, he chose to go with Attack Transition, signed Stuart Hogg to effect that change and beefed up his pack to an even higher quality.
Exeter play with a four-lock pack.
Look at their teamsheet and forget about numbers on the back for a minute.
Jonny Hill (tighthead lock) and Jonny Gray (tighthead lock) are in the second row.
Dave Ewers (6’4″ and 125kg) and Jacques Vermuelen (6’6″ and 113kg) are, essentially, two half-locks. On the bench, Sam Skinner and Jannes Kirsten are two
Sam Simmonds is wearing #8 but he is a strike wing forward in Exeter’s system with their hooker Luke Cowan-Dickie playing a similar role in both attack and defence. Simmonds’ role is actually really interesting because when it comes to phase play, you’re as likely to see him in the backfield and in wider strike channels as you are to see him off the back of mauls.
He is an explosive wide-runner with excellent hands and attacking instincts.
All four of their props are centre-field heavy carriers who rock and roll off #9.
Exeter’s mauling work is of the highest standard and they tend to kick the majority of their won penalties – usually gained through forward pressure off #9 like offsides and failed poaches – down the line. They have four legit jumpers in their pack and their straight-up mauling pressure is incredibly strong with Gray, Hill and Vermuelen providing excellent maul build points all through the line. Your decision as a defence is either compete – and I don’t think Leinster are set up to compete too freely with this Exeter side – or stay on the floor, back your maul defence and deny them early shove momentum.
Their maul breaks are equally effective, especially given how strong their mauling threat is. Like a dominant scrum, you can’t afford to go light on the Exeter maul because they can roll right through you so your number management and scramble off the side of the maul is very important. Even then, Exeter have a few schemes to hurt teams who overcommit and leave too much for a player like Van Der Flier to do.
Look at the Cowan-Dickie and O’Flaherty showing two similar pictures to hijack the line of the breaking defensive forward in the two middle examples.
In Ollie Devoto, Exeter have a big, physical direct runner to hit off these maul breaks and if they retain the ball in the first phase over the gainline – big challenge for Sexton and Henshaw incoming – Exeter always have monstrous runners coming around the corner at pace and they will run right over the top of you in the most dangerous areas of the field.
Exeter’s phase game is based on using tight forward interplay off #9 amongst themselves quite regularly – Cowan-Dickie is excellent in this role as a pop passer – and releasing to Simmonds or Slade with strike runners and heavy carriers around every corner.
Exeter are really good at getting big, heavy runners linking with Cowan-Dickie off #9 for big, heavy collisions. Once Exeter hurt you off #9, they release to Joe Simmonds for what seems like an inevitable strike at the line in the outside channels but usually only after they’ve hurt you off #9.
The way to stopping them here? You just have to stop them physically – that’s it. Will Connors and James Ryan are two huge misses for Leinster in this game for this reason alone. There is a possibility of poaching Exeter at the breakdown but, as Leinster will attest to, most referees reward dominant quick ball regardless of how it’s achieved so look for a rake of off-feet and side entries going unpunished on the whole.
When Exeter play tight amongst the forwards, you get more than your fair share of knock-ons, fumbles and scrags in contact. How Leinster play off these moments will be vitally important. There is value in kicking, yes, but only with a viable chase to pressure as Hogg is one of the best scramble defenders in the game. For me, Exeter’s one weakness is in transition defence.
The size Exeter have is very good at shutting down opposition teams set up carries and they have the size and power in the scrum and lineout to trouble your launch points. BUT. If they lose the ball in transition – either off the box kick or in their possession – their forward line can be slow to react to a quick, lateral shift of the ball to the wider channels. When Lyon scored their two early tries last weekend, both came off the back of lost Exeter possession and their tight forwards getting caught as they tried to fill the field.
If Leinster can profit from these moments, they can hurt Exeter in defensive transition – the one area of the game where Baxter’s men are not elite right now.
