I remember when Edinburgh used to be a guaranteed handy one.

It wasn’t even that long ago. When I think of Edinburgh rugby my mind has to juggle between two states. The first state of thought is that Edinburgh are poor enough and that Munster are going to win and win handily enough. The second state of thought is that Edinburgh are becoming a serious outfit that demands respect and the utmost caution.

This is what happens when a team transitions from what they were, to what they are becoming. Glasgow went through the same transition and are one of the most dangerous sides in European rugby in 2018 with a raised status to match. Edinburgh, in my opinion, are heading on the same trajectory and, with Richard Cockerill at the helm, have added a teak tough edge to their play that bolsters everything that they do. As per usual at this time of year, the detail of the game will come down to who’s available for both sides post-test window.

For Munster, it’s quite a lot of internationals. For Edinburgh, it’s less so;

Edinburgh’s selection surprised me a little bit – I expected to see a few more of their front liners – but Richard Cockerill looks like he’s decided to prioritise the next block of games rather than this one. That isn’t to say that Edinburgh have thrown their hat at this game before it’s even begun but there’s no arguing that they’re down a number of their frontline players like Kinghorn, Graham, Johnstone, Pyrgos, Dell, McInally, Ford, Nel, Toolis, Gilchrist, Bradbury, Watson and Mata through a mixture of injury and rotation.

That isn’t to say that there isn’t talent or dangerous players in this Edinburgh selection – Fife, Van Der Walt and Van Der Merwe will be the main threats in my opinion – but I think it’s fair to say that a healthy Munster win is the only acceptable outcome.

The Red Eye Report: Edinburgh (H)

An “A” would be considered top class by Champions Cup standards, a “B” would be considered good by regular Champions Cup standard, a “C” would be considered decent by PRO14 level, a “D” would be considered below par by PRO14 standards and an “E” would be something I’d consider an exploitable weakness. This rating doesn’t apply for Edinburgh’s main team, just the team selected for this one. 

Set Piece

Offensive Scrummaging – C
Defensive Scrummaging – C 
Attacking Lineout – C
Defensive Lineout – D
Offensive Maul – C
Defensive Maul – D 

Open Play

Defensive Structure – D
Phase Play Power – D
Attacking Creativity – D
Structured Attack Off Set Piece – C 
Structured Defence Off Set Piece – C  
Overall Fitness – C 
Kicking – C
Back Three Kick Positioning – D

No Win Must Win

The biggest problem that Munster will have in this game is matching expectations. They have a massive experience and quality gap – at least on paper – against this rotated Edinburgh side but, as we’ve seen so many times before, just because a team should be winning a game doesn’t mean it’ll go that easy. Edinburgh, in a lot of ways, will have very little to lose here. They’ll know the team they’ve selected will be -20 point dogs against the team Munster have selected but with that comes an element of freedom. They’ve got a few debutants, a few second layer and fringe guys and one or two starters so they’ll know they can play in this one with very little pressure. No one expects them to win here and that can be a liberating mentality in a context like this. So we have to be careful not to over analyse what Edinburgh are likely to do given they are missing most of their go-to guys in the pack.

Munster, on the other hand, have to win this one but won’t really take any credit for doing so. After all, they’re supposed to win and win well but that expectation would already there in front of a sold out Musgrave Park. Managing that expectation and controlling the possession advantage I expect Munster to have will be the chief responsibility of JJ Hanrahan and he’ll have a full-strength roster of outside backs to work with, as well as the world class service of Conor Murray inside him. If Hanrahan can control Munster’s structure with the width that Carbery managed against Exeter and Gloucester, the breaks should come easy on phase play.

I’d expect Munster to boss the set piece in both scrum and lineout. I think the scrum is a real area for Munster to go after given the relative experience difference between both front fives. In the lineout, Munster will be glad to see Ben Toolis’ name missing from the Edinburgh teamsheet as he’s one of the premier counter-jumpers in the competition. Munster, with four live jumping options in Beirne, Holland, O’Mahony and Botha, should have their way on their own ball as long as the calling and accuracy are where they need to be.

On Edinburgh’s throw, I’d expect most of their initial ball to go to James Hodgson at the front or middle.

There isn’t too much movement on these lineout schemes and that’s got a lot to do with the new combinations and inexperience in the Edinburgh pack. I wouldn’t expect Edinburgh to change their structure massively for this game and will broadly stay with fairly simple switches to Hodgson and Hunter-Hill.

Munster will get a lot of change from pressurising the Edinburgh throw on full lineouts at the front through O’Mahony and using Beirne to patrol the middle. Our defensive maul should have a good edge too, especially when Hodgson takes the ball at the front or middle. Watch his angled body position when he comes down on the above throws and on the one below.

That angled body position will allow the likes of Tadhg Beirne to get a strong arm through the “wall” and disrupt any maul possession Edinburgh try to build off Hodgson. If we can get Edinburgh throwing riskier balls to the tail their schemes get even simpler. Without Gilchrist, Toolis or Carmichael, I’d expect Munster to have a distinct advantage in the lineout and maul. When Edinburgh really want a maul – rather than a maul feint to bring Van Der Merwe in off the blindside – they’ll use this compression scheme to build the maul in advance through their feints.

Edinburgh’s pack reshuffle also means that they’ll be a little light up the middle of the pitch on their possession. Without Bradbury, McInally and Mata, Edinburgh shouldn’t have too much for Munster in regular phase possession. I would add that Luke Hamilton – who Munster will be well aware of due to his recent stint with the Leicester Tigers – is a decent carrier in the strike and run areas.

Edinburgh like to mix up their phase possession with a few inside pass options to heavy runners like Hodgson and Hunter-Hill but they will only work if they get good ground on initial carries and I wouldn’t expect them to get much change from the selection Munster have named phase for phase bar alignment errors or tackle failures.

I think that Edinburgh’s shake-up of their midfield pairing and their pack will put a lot more emphasis on the breaking of Van Der Walt from first receiver …

… and it’ll also dictate the width that Edinburgh will put on the ball to get Van Der Merwe into the game. Van Der Merwe is the key physical advantage that Edinburgh have in this game and he’ll be a constant danger on every Edinburgh possession and set piece.

Van Der Merwe is a little vulnerable to getting sliced up and isolated on certain phase plays and kick plays but he’s got the physicality to turn most situations he’ll experience in contact to his advantage. Just look at the above example. Edinburgh will be looking to get Van Der Merwe one on one with Earls/Conway at any opportunity so I’d expect them to build a lot of second layer attacks to get him into the game running onto the ball.

Look for Edinburgh to try a few angled kicks through the defensive line a few times to get Van Der Merwe attacking Conway and Earls on the turn. Ironically, they are also super vulnerable to this kind of kick on Van Der Merwe’s side.

There should be spaces off the carrying of Botha and Farrell up the middle of the field and that’s when I’d expect to see Hanrahan or Scannell put one like the above in behind for Conway or Earls to attack.

Either way, I’d expect Munster to win if they play even halfway to their potential but, as we’ve seen time and again against a side with nothing to lose, it’s easier said than done.

A few early scores will put Edinburgh back on the plane early but getting them will be key. It should be exciting. See you there!