This is a must-win game.

But then; aren’t they all? Well, yes and no. Some games are a little more must-win than others and this game is one of them.

The quirks of Munster’s PRO14 conference this season means that we can absorb two LBP losses to Leinster and Ulster without suffering too much in the way of damage to our second place spot behind Glasgow. That absolutely does not apply to this game “in-conference” against a rotated Connacht side in Thomond Park this weekend. This game is an eight-pointer and, potentially – a ten-pointer.

A plain old 4-0 win this weekend would see Munster open up a near-unassailable 18 point lead over the Westerners. A full blown Hawaii (5-0) win would see that stretched out to 20 points – four bonus-point wins worth.

That’s why I’m slightly confused to see Connacht rotating their side for this particular game. A loss to Munster is significantly more damaging to them than a similar loss to Leinster because of the inability for them to “punch back” again this season. Of course, that presumes they’ll lose this upcoming game, which is far from certain.

Let’s have a look at the team they’ve selected.

Connacht

(15-9) Tiernan O’Halloran, Niyi Adeolokun, Eoin Griffin, Pita Ahki, Matt Healy, Jack Carty, Caolin Blade,
(1-8) Peter McCabe, Tom McCartney, Conor Carey, Quinn Roux, James Cannon, Cillian Gallagher, Jarrad Butler, John Muldoon (Capt)
Replacements (16-23): Shane Delahunt, Conan O’Donnell, Finlay Bealham, Gavin Thornbury, Paul Boyle, James Mitchell, Craig Ronaldson, Darragh Leader

There are a few key guys missing there through injury and rotation – Aki, Dillane, Marmion, Masterson, Buckley – but this is still a good selection. Certainly more than enough to damage an unwary Munster side, that’s for sure.

The only question for me would be the freshness of some of that Connacht back row – this will be Butler and Muldoon’s third game in 11 days and both men have played 140 minutes and 150 minutes out of a possible 160 in a really short period of time.

Here’s the side that Munster have selected;

It looks pretty good. There’s an element of risk in throwing Marshall, Farrell and Oliver straight back into the starting XV but now’s not the time for conservatism as we head into the Racing game in Paris, let alone this game. JVG will be well aware that Munster can all but nail down a quarter-final slot in this game so that will have influenced the strength of this 23.

Winning Sequences

Munster’s performances over the past two weeks will not have gone unnoticed in Galway. Sure, you could easily say that there’s not much to fear about Munster’s poor halves of rugby against Leinster and Ulster but they’ll have noticed the strength of Munster’s set piece in both games. Whatever about anything else, Munster’s scrum and lineout maul were particularly impressive in both games once the ball was secured.

I think this facet of the game will instruct both Munster and Connacht’s approach to this game.

In particular, I think Connacht will want to take Munster’s lineout out of the game as much as possible and mainly because of their slow speed in the air – something that’s bedevilled them this season on both sides of the ball.

It was particularly apparent in their last game against Leinster. Connacht played incredibly well in that fixture but the lineout was an area of the game that caused them trouble – not fatal to their gameplan, but it certainly didn’t help.

I’d rate Connacht’s main lineout weaknesses as;

• Slow speed over the ground.
• Slow speed into the air
• No elite jumpers outside of Dillane

In Attack 

Lineout patterns will generally stay the same week to week regardless of the personnel. There’ll be a few personnel specific schemes (like Munster have for O’Mahony) but for the most part, a team’s lineout will feature the same group of movements for ease of use with changeable parts (players).

Looking at the Leinster game, I couldn’t work out why Connacht were so conservative in their approach to the lineout. Leinster had their weakest starting second-row combination on the field from the start and I felt Connacht gave them way too much respect.

Connacht consistently used their openside – Jarrad Butler – as a front jumper all through this game and, while it was successful, it meant they threw a lot of ball to the front which limited their attempts to get width on the game from the lineout. But, at the same time, it meant they got clean possession.

Have a look at their two main options off this scheme here;

This option gets Butler up at the front lifted by Dillane and with the ball going back to the scrumhalf to run wide. Nice and snappy.

Here’s the second option;

This is a bit of a decoy play at the front  – mainly based on the idea that Connacht can’t be throwing it at him here, right? – but it’s successful in that the maul gets set up well enough.

Again, they get the ball fairly clean in the air here but there’s a problem; look at how the initial maul buckles because of Butler’s light frame and, more importantly, his lightweight bracing. Dillane and Cannon have to plough in heavy behind Butler to stop him from getting chewed up by the Leinster countershove and getting sacked immediately.

Butler has to move to the middle of the Connacht side pretty quickly to avoid losing his feet and self-sacking the maul before it even begins. Connacht were helped by Molony’s counter jump and the blown lift pod behind it, but it’s a decent little maul in the end.

Crucially though, this give Leinster a guide as to how to handle this gimmick when Connacht went back to this exact scheme in the last 10 minutes.

I was struck by this while watching; when Connacht absolutely needed the ball from the lineout, they went to Butler at the front – twice.

The first thing you notice? Leinster have moved Max Deegan to track Butler at the front of the lineout. There’s not really any counter maul value to Deegan standing alongside Deegan but I think Leinster were still worried about this going short to Butler and Connacht, somehow, engineering a break down the short side.

The same issues as earlier are visible on these maul set-ups. Butler gets good initial possession but gets badly shunted in the air and on landing, forcing Connacht to have a wide and flat front to their maul. As you know at this point, that kind of front isn’t hugely effective at drilling through a maul defence like Leinster’s.

Why did Connacht go to Butler for these “must make” throws?

Because their other options are too slow into the air and their best jumper – Dillane – is also their most powerful mauler and they want him facing towards the try line, not with his back to it as the jumper.

Here’s what I mean about being slow into the air;

Connacht keep the ball in this instance but there are two things that stick out to me here;

1. Connacht have to go to a lot of effort to “isolate” Molony with Cannon one on one.
2. Cannon’s poor jump deception blows Muldoon’s decoy instantly.

On point 1, this kind of movement is fairly standard practice when you want to pull an opposition lineout out of shape to attack a particular jump pod one on one. This scheme puts a little too much pressure on Coulson (white #1) for my liking, but the whole idea behind this movement is to move Molony’s jump pod away far enough away from Cannon to give him the best shot possible at setting up a strong maul shape 8m out.

All this is a fine idea, but it’ll only work if Molony (or one of his pod) buys that Cannon probably isn’t jumping when Coulson runs past him here;

You can see Porter buying that Muldoon is the target due to Coulsen’s run but Cannon’s poor deception means that Molony isn’t fooled.

Even before Coulson cuts to come back, I’d still back Cannon as the favourite to take this ball – look at how upright he is in the middle of a pocket.

Even though Coulson’s run fools Porter and takes away Molony’s back lifter, Cannon’s jump speed is so slow that Leinster almost nab the ball anyway.

Porter gets hands-on Molony after Coulsen starts lifting Cannon but Molony still gets in range to disrupt.

Here’s an even more blatant example of Cannon’s speed in the air. Look at his up and down here;

This GIF hasn’t been slowed down. Molony beats Cannon into their air and hits the deck before him. I’d question Connacht’s lift pod here too – Butler’s having to work very hard to get Cannon in the air here compared to Molony, who’s getting the express lift to the top with Deegan and Leavy.

 

It’s not just the speed into the air that’s an issue, there’s also their speed across the ground.

Look at this move here, and reference the A option on this play to get a look at some of Connacht’s likely plans when you see this setup.

Here’s the basic alignment;

You’ll recognise this one from earlier.

The key characteristics are Butler at the front and looking at Cannon, who’ll be moving toward the front with Roux and Muldoon around him.

When the trigger comes, it’ll either go to Butler at the front or they’ll do this;

It’s the exact same alignment except that the B option is throwing to Muldoon at the tail. It’s a nice construction – look at Muldoon’s outside foot in both GIFs for an example of the Connacht captain’s attention to detail in making this a genuine two option scheme – but this B option means that Cannon and Muldoon have to move very quickly over the ground to the tail and they just aren’t quick enough in this instance.

If Munster see this alignment on Saturday night, they’ll know that the A option can be easily stuffed without an aerial challenge and that the B option is ripe for picking off given how long the ball has to be in the air for Muldoon to get into position.

Defence and Muldoon

In defence, the same problems present for Connacht in the lineout. Once again, Dillane (who isn’t playing here) is Connacht’s best counter jumper when it comes to timing and athletic ability.

He doesn’t get the ball in this instance, but that isn’t any reflection on the quality of his jump. That’s some serious air.

He’s not just a good technical jumper, he’s got a real strong arm for disrupting;

BOOF – look at that slap back. But Dillane isn’t playing here. Roux is in ahead of him and while the South African born Irish international is every bit as strong as Dillane, he isn’t as explosive in the loose or, for the purposes of this article, as quick in the air.

Looking through Connacht’s starting pack for this game, all I see are guys with slow jump times. Connacht know it too – that’s why they went to Butler for their “must win” lineout balls in the last 10 minutes.

Leinster definitely targeted this aspect of Connacht’s lineout too and went after Muldoon until he went off on 70 minutes in the RDS.

They didn’t have a great start in this regard;

A skewed Cronin throw gave Muldoon a chance to put a strong right hand in and flick this early lineout away.

This was the only real success that Muldoon had in this aspect of the game.

Leinster lined their jumper across from Muldoon and forced him into a counter-jump situation. Muldoon may have thought he was marking them but this was an Attacking Mark – where an attacking lineout targets the slowest or weakest counter jumper for one on ones.

Look at this one; Nagle takes the ball clean, gets a good maul setup and Muldoon is clearly beaten on the counter-jump. Crucially, he lands with his back turned and is a non-factor in the crucial early defence of the ensuing maul.

Leinster would target Muldoon in the air again and again.

If Munster can bring the same mechanical movement we saw against Leinster and particularly Ulster, we could have a really good chance of attacking Connacht’s maul or their new combo at 10/12/13 on the break.

I expect Connacht to limit their exits straight to touch and instead try to limit the damage on their own kick transition. Look for Carty to “exit” long up the middle of the pitch and/or spread the ball wide inside their own 22 to get Ahki/Healy/O’Halloran/Adelokun onto the ball with a bit of depth. They’ll only exit to the stands if they’re under pressure on the exit, they won’t just kick to get the ball off the pitch because I think they know the issues they have in the air and, without Dillane, they’re vulnerable to getting picked off and mauled.

Leinster didn’t really maul Connacht the way I felt they might have – they didn’t really have the back five for it – but Munster will certainly try to. Look for O’Shea to be the main target, with Kleyn adding the brute force up the middle. This article will be a good refresher on Munster’s likely approach at the lineout.

I’m really looking forward to seeing how this lineout battle plays out.