The current format of the Champions Cup means that any attempt I might make to turn this into a Must Win Can’t Lose game will inevitably fall flat. It is a game that Munster would like to win – and a game we have targeted to win, which brings a form of pressure of its own – but the season doesn’t hinge on this game in any meaningful way.
Let me explain why.
In the new Champions Cup format, the better the teams at the top of your pool do, the lower the threshold for qualifying with 7 or 8 points – essentially one win plus a few losing bonus points – becomes, especially when the top four get four wins from four earning 19/20 points.
Those wins have to come from somewhere and if they’re earning 19/20 points, they’re getting them from the bottom four teams; in that context, bonus points are the most significant factor in qualifying. All you need is 8/9 points to be virtually certain of knockout rugby in April 2023. That means two wins plus two losing bonus points if you want to cheese it in nice and handy, or one bonus point win at home plus three losing bonus points in the other three would likely be enough too if last season tracks on this season, which is already looking quite likely.
That doesn’t mean that Graham Rowntree and his staff are looking beyond this game or pieing it off, but it’s not a make-or-break game. I would look at it as a “bonus” game where, if we perform in key areas, can get our business done in this pool well ahead of schedule.
Not that Northampton are a side that will have any business done against them easily, despite what last week’s defeat against La Rochelle might suggest.
Northampton Saints: 15. George Furbank; 14. James Ramm, 13. Matt Proctor, 12. Rory Hutchinson, 11. Tommy Freeman; 10. Fin Smith, 9. Alex Mitchell; 1. Alex Waller, 2. Sam Matavesi, 3. Ehren Painter; 4. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 5. David Ribbans; 6. Courtney Lawes, 7. Lewis Ludlam (capt), 8. Juarno Augustus.
Replacements: 16. Mikey Haywood, 17. Emmanuel Iyogun, 18. Alfie Petch, 19. Alex Moon, 20. Angus Scott-Young, 21. Aaron Hinkley, 22. Callum Braley, 23. Fraser Dingwall
The key to Northampton’s game is their lineout and lineout maul, why it’s so effective, why it’s worth scheming to stop and why it also opens up attackable lanes for guys like Carbery, Crowley, Frisch and others.
When I saw Munster’s back five selection for this week, I was not one bit surprised. We’ve often spoken on this platform about how Munster, in the last number of years, changed our game approach for certain opponents in important games but rarely selection.
Our team approach was horses for courses so it would fluctuate wildly depending on the opposition with the players expected to be monkey wrenches who could do a little bit of everything.
In this game, we’ve selected a back five that is specifically designed to go after Northampton’s lineout and limit the impact of their maul to stymie their primary launch point. Northampton are a classic, heavy-to-quick team and they’ve doubled down on that here with a huge starting pack with their starting front row north all north of 120KG, a three-lock back five with arguably two power forwards and a power winger to augment an incredibly nippy and agile 12-15 and really mobile halfbacks.
Why did Munster select O’Donoghue and O’Mahony to start this? We need O’Mahony’s counter-jumping and defensive lineout mauling to pair with Beirne but we also want to double down on that by adding in O’Donoghue’s counter-jumping and heavier maul defence into our back five too.
Northampton have stacked their pack with heavy maul options. Salakaia-Loto is a heavy tighthead lock and Ribbans is of the same profile. Courtney Lawes will be a primary lineout target for both Ribbans and Salakai-Loto to brace around, the colossal tighthead Ehren Painter (6’4″/130KG) adding serious power in the drive section and Ludlow and Augustus offering a breaking threat that we daren’t leave unguarded.
After the poor mauling performance against Toulouse last week – both tries came from unbalanced collapses that turned into big directional surges that cost penalties and momentum – Munster have gone for a back five build with more lineout contesting and heavier maul defence as standard.
We want counter-jumpers in all three zones but we want a core of players that can hold out Northampton’s heavy touchline maul.
If Ehren Painter is that touchline pin this Sunday, he’ll take some moving and for Munster the key is to disrupt them before they get a chance to get that maul going consistently. Peter O’Mahony, Jack O’Donoghue and Tadhg Beirne will play a key role in limiting Saints’ options but remember, they are happy enough taking the front of the maul, which is a spot most sides are happy enough to give them. We can’t give them anything at the lineout. If they get scared away from the middle, we have get O’Mahony or O’Donoghue attacking on every other counter-launch.
Northampton want lineouts, I say we give it to them. With Carbery and Crowley patrolling the second layer, we’ve got players who can probe down the wings through the boot and with Earls and Nash applying pressure on a bouncing ball, we can get at Saints where they want to play.
When I look at the bench, I see a massive shift in pace to go after Northampton from 50 minutes on. They’ve had an issue with dropping off as games develop and Hodnett and Kendellen coming on with Casey and Daly could really add to that.
Northampton have a heavy pack – a very heavy back five – and that leaves them vulnerable on the second phase after a lineout or scrum, or directly on the first phase if you can get width on the pass.
As the game progresses, Northampton’s build will stay with the same principles – they start heavy in the pack and stay heavy in the pack off the bench. For Munster, we have to keep our Pass Per Carry ratio around 1.3/1.4 – we have to keep that intent to challenge Saints with width. If it works to plan, you’ll see Carbery or Crowley selling pump fakes and making breaks from the second layer against Ludlam/Hutchinson off long-range Casey passes with Hodnett/Kendellen buzzing those edge and middle edge spaces.
Saints have a tendency to over-compete at the breakdown and, as a result, start to leak penalties associated with the breakdown along with offsides. We have to take advantage of those if and when they come with three points. Force the Saints to up their pace and we can buy a few kicking errors off Mitchell and Smith.
Play our cards right and there’s a world of scores for us here on transition, and on phase two or three off the set piece but we’ll need to earn that with a strong lineout performance on both sides of the ball.
