What are you up to on Friday night?
I’ll be flitting between Connacht/Edinburgh, Ulster/Glasgow and Cardiff/Stormers. One way or another, we will know what’s required on Saturday evening. Whether it’s a fight in the mud for a knife or a processional formality, we’ll know early.
Let’s get into it. Before a ball is kicked in Thomond Park, before the first lineout, we’ll know exactly what is needed — one way or the other. Here’s what you need to know when you sit down Friday night, or when you idly check your phone at 10 pm.
The good news first. We don’t need to rely on a single specific result. We need the planets to not align for the chasing pack, and given those chasers’ fixtures, the planets have a fair bit of work to do.
Cardiff (currently 50pts, PD -25)
- 0 pts → stays at 50, below Munster
- 1 pt → reaches 51, but PD of -25 loses the tiebreaker to Munster’s +13, still below
- 2 pts (draw or two losing bonus points) → reaches 52, above Munster, we need a losing bonus point at least against the Lions.
- 4 pts → reaches 54, above Munster, we need a win at least against the Lions to stay ahead of them.
- 5 pts → reaches 55, above Munster, we need a win at least against the Lions to stay ahead of them.
Ulster (currently 50pts, PD +78)
- 0 pts → stays at 50, below Munster
- 1 pt → reaches 51, PD of +78 wins the tiebreaker against Munster’s +13, above Munster.
- 2 pts → reaches 52, above Munster, we need two losing bonus points at least against the Lions, given the points difference, but eighth place would be enough for Europe.
- 4 pts → reaches 54, above Munster, we need a win at least against the Lions to stay ahead of them.
- 5 pts → reaches 55, above Munster, we need a win at least against the Lions to stay ahead of them.
Connacht (currently 49pts, PD +26)
- 0 pts → stays at 49, below Munster
- 1 pt → reaches 50, below Munster
- 2 pts (draw or two LBPs) → reaches 51, PD of +26 wins the tiebreaker against Munster’s +13, above Munster, we need two LBPs at least against the Lions, given the points difference.
- 4 pts → reaches 53, above Munster, we need a win at least against the Lions to stay ahead of them.
- 5 pts → reaches 54, above Munster, we need a win at least against the Lions to stay ahead of them.
The key takeaway: Ulster are the danger here. Any points at all from Glasgow — even a losing bonus point — and they leapfrog us, but I don’t necessarily mind that. If one result goes against us, I don’t mind this one, as it takes the Challenge Cup final trapcard off the table for eighth place. Cardiff and Connacht need at least a draw to overtake us. For Munster to slip out of the top eight before we play the Lions, all three need to clear that bar.
But, in reality, the only result that actually matters is beating the Fidelity Securedrive Lions.
Fuck the other games. Sure, it would be nice if we were qualified and safe in 7th, at least, before a ball is kicked, but we’re in Thomond Park with business to do. A bonus point win could, with a shock Bulls loss, sneak us into fourth place. At the very least, it’ll nail down fifth and then whatever happens in the playoffs happens.
It’s going to be difficult, though, we know that. It seems to have flown a bit under the radar, but our injury issues since that Ulster game in Thomond Park have torn through the squad. A season of mostly decent luck with injury undone in, it seems, two games to end the campaign. That makes this game way, way harder than it would be, and it was always going to be tricky. We can’t focus on who’s not playing; only on who will play, and how they can do themselves proud.
So let’s get into that mud and grab the knife, whatever happens on Friday night. This is going to be a gut check, come what may.
Munster Rugby: 15. Mike Haley; 14. Andrew Smith, 13. Alex Nankivell, 12. Dan Kelly, 11. Seán O’Brien; 10. Jack Crowley, 9. Craig Casey (c); 1. Jeremy Loughman, 2. Niall Scannell, 3. Michael Ala’alatoa; 4. Tom Ahern, 5. Fineen Wycherley; 6. Jack O’Donoghue, 7. John Hodnett, 8. Brian Gleeson.
Replacements: 16. Diarmuid Barron, 17. Josh Wycherley, 18. John Ryan, 19. Evan O’Connell, 20. Gavin Coombes, 21. Ben O’Donovan, 22. JJ Hanrahan, 23. Alex Kendellen.
Fidelity Securedrive Lions: 15. Quan Horn; 14. Kelly Mpeku, 13. Henco van Wyk, 12. Richard Kriel, 11. Angelo Davids; 10. Chris Smith, 9. Morné van den Berg; 1. SJ Kotze, 2. PJ Botha, 3. Sebastian Lombard; 4. Reinhard Nothnagel, 5. Darrien Landsberg; 6. Siba Mahashe, 7. Batho Hlekani, 8. Francke Horn (c)
Replacements: 16. Morné Brandon, 17. Eddie Davids, 18. RF Schoeman, 19. Ruan Delport, 20. Siba Qoma, 21. JC Pretorius, 22. Haashim Pead, 23. Rynhardt Jonker
The Lions haven’t won outside South Africa all season. That doesn’t mean they can’t change that this weekend — they’re more than capable of it — but it does show that they are vulnerable north of the equator in a way they aren’t in South Africa.
Part of that is the altitude differential. It plays a part. In Ellis Park, the Lions run teams ragged in a way that isn’t possible at sea level. Part of their game is a really long, high-contestable kicking game that is primarily about territory management and hitting on the drop, rather than directly regathering the ball.
What’s unusual is that the Lions have a really big, heavy front five that shouldn’t really be able to keep up with the kick metrage — they kick longer per kick than any other team in the competition this season. Those two things normally don’t go together. Having a high kick volume across a season is pretty normal for a team with a heavyweight front five, but not at range. All that does is tire out those same forwards at a higher rate than the opposition, with one exception: at altitude.
There, a longer kicking game drains the opposition more — especially when combined with the Lions’ aggressive, pacey chase unit.
They do have a decent kick retention rate, but only on specific cross-field kick plays by Smith, or short field plays like this.
We can match this with a kick pressure game of our own. Their back field are a little ropey with their relief kicking, bar Chris Smith, and can get a little scrappy under the high ball themselves on the back foot. If they stick to the same long kicking game in Thomond Park, we will have transition opportunities up the middle of the field, but we’ll need to be judicious on how we go after those.
There’s no escaping the reality of this game; it’s likely going to be very, very tight for 50 minutes. What we can’t allow is what happened in the Connacht game, where we end up defending them for long stretches around our 22, because they’re really good at finding offloads, especially off their heavy, direct carrying game off #9. If we can’t get high-quality stops, we’ll find ourselves on the back foot pretty regularly.
For me, the real path to victory here is kicking high and long ourselves, swarming them with high-energy defence on the drop, and slowly moving our possessions upfield. When they are defending inside their 10m line, they are vulnerable to overchasing big shots with relatively slow presses and leaving gaps on the outside of that line, especially when they overchase on the ground. When the Lions exit to touch — as they do quite often — we will need to be secure on our lineout to hold our position up the field.
Post set piece, you can catch the Lions. They can get a little sluggish around the tail of the lineout later in the game, around Chris Smith. There are sniping lines in that seam.
In this example, their forward line gets a little compressed — something they do quite a bit — and that can lead to jumpy moments for their covering midfielders as they try to cover laterally. Kriel and Van Wyk are very quick, very agile. They cover movement off #10 really well, in tandem with their wingers, but they can get stopped and narrowed, especially when Smith is still in the primary defensive line.
If we’re patient and accurate, we’ll generate 22 entries, and then it comes down to whether we can take those opportunities or not. If we do, we’ll win, and we’ll wonder what the fuss was about. If not, this will be a tight grind that could go either way.
