Red Eye Key Points

Hammer the Hammer

Cardiff were really unlucky to miss out on the top eight last year. They were fifth after beating Munster in the Arms Park in Round 16, but were desperately unlucky that their last two games were on tour in South Africa. It’s not a stretch to suggest that if those two away games were in the northern hemisphere, they might have taken Munster’s place in 6th by the time it all shook out. As it turned out, they missed the playoffs by a point.

Their URC form was built on the back of one of the best mauls in Europe off a decent — but not elite — lineout, backed by a more than decent scrum. They were 12th in the world when it came to how few scrum penalties they conceded last season, and we should expect the same here on what is expected to be a blustery night and a heavy pitch. Stay square, accurate, and disciplined at scrum to remove that 17.1% penalty‑win profile that flips the field and feeds their set‑piece try source.

That Cardiff maul is the real secret sauce, though.

Ideally, we’d contest the front and middle of the lineout heavily and show tail threats to push them off that 85.3% front/middle tendency — make them throw deep and use Ahern to spook their throwers. I think that three-lock pack that we’ve started with is there specifically for that area of Cardiff’s game. They had the highest metres per maul, combined maul metres and tries per maul in the URC last season, and that’s based, as you’d expect, on strong use of the middle of the lineout as a build point.

We have to attack that space on their throw or pre‑empt that maul with early contest, shift‑then‑shunt and “up‑then‑out” to cap their forward movement, but this needs to be part of our overall strategy of choking their 22 access. If we can defang that maul, we’ll be a long way to winning this game.

Structural Weakness

Cardiff’s main issue last season was their defence, and elements of that showed again last week against the Lions, albeit as part of a good defensive performance. If we can chain narrow phase speed together on success phases outside they tend to fall off tackles as part of their overall strategy. Essentially, they tend to go high in the tackle, so we can use that to soak metres in phase play.

Our kick strategies should force touch rather than long contestables to attack their lineout, while our exit on them reads should set to return‑kick pressure against their 71.4% kick‑exit tendency, especially on a day where kicking will be tricky.

Above all, starve their 22 entries by minimising penalties between the 10s, because their 45.6% conversion rate in the 22, based on last season’s trends and even last week’s game against the Lions, is punishing. We saw that ourselves last season in the Arms Park — keep them out with good discipline, and they don’t tend to be dangerous on longer attacking sets, even with their punchy midfield.

Threats to Protect Against

• Set‑piece starts drive 68.3% of tries with 34.9% on first phase, so spacing and connection off lineout/scrum must be tight.

• Scrum penalties and maul field position are the fastest routes to concession against teams with this profile.

• They tend to finish strongly, something last week’s win over the Lions confirms. Bench impact and discipline after 55 minutes matter.

Opportunities to Exploit

• Lineout disruption is a viable strategy, especially with touch‑finder pressure from returns.

• High tackle height makes clamp‑and‑fold and leg‑drive finishes profitable in contact. If we latch and drive correctly, there is real ground to be made through them.

• Cardiff’s red‑zone defence conceded tries on 36.5% of entries last season, so multi‑phase patience and repeat entries will yield scoreboard returns. Last week, the Lions picked up two tries from just five entries — we can maximise that with a solid set-piece performance without needing to overchase.