This will be a slimmed-down Red Eye this week because, as I write this, I’ve slept about four hours in the last 48.
My little girl has that rotten combo of swollen tonsils with a nasal drip so the minute she lies down for the night, she starts coughing every few minutes and then, because her tonsils are so swollen, she ends up kinda gagging, which leads to the odd throw-up. Been to the doctor twice, but she’s in great spirits other than that, no temperature. It’s just one of those things that a steroid will fix.
So I’m tired.
Maybe it’s because I’m tired that I see this game as something of a nexus point for Munster’s season as a whole. In many ways, how this season is perceived depends on who the head coach will be going forward and what happens in La Rochelle in April. When you’re halfway through a season as we are and results have been almost on the verge of 50/50, the focus can often turn to next season, even though there is so much of this season left.
Munster can’t afford that thinking this evening.
This is our 15th competitive game of the season, we have lost seven of the previous 14. A win here would put us above that .500 mark for the first time all season. Part of that is down to playing an extraordinary amount of away games before the Six Nations break – eight of those 14 games were away from home overall and six of those have made up more than half of the ten league games we’ve played. Those away losses were against the newly minted stripey juggernaut Zebre Parma, Leinster, Stormers and the Sharks combined. Nothing to be too ashamed of there – bar maybe the Zebre result, even with their obvious improvement this season – but the losses are on the books regardless.
By comparison, Cardiff who sit in fifth in the URC as it stands this morning have only played three away games in the league so far this season. Scarlets, our opponent tonight, have played four. This is their fifth.
The URC regular season can be quite simple; win almost all of your home games and you’ll probably finish in the top five, maybe even the top four if you can pick up a few results outside of Ireland. The magic number for the top four seems to be that 60-point mark. We’re currently on 26 points with eight games left to play in the regular season. Crucially, we don’t play Leinster again and only have two more interpros so, with 40 points available, that 60-point mark is doable. Not easy. Not a walk in the park. Doable.
That starts tonight.
Munster Rugby: 15. Ben O’Connor (Highfield RFC/PBC); 14. Shane Daly (Highfield RFC/PBC), 13. Tom Farrell (Coolmine RFC/Castleknock College), 12. Rory Scannell (PBC), 11. Diarmuid Kilgallen (Naas RFC/Cistercian College Roscrea); 10. Billy Burns (Beechen Cliff/Hartpury College), 9. Ethan Coughlan (Ennis RFC); 1. Josh Wycherley (Bantry Bay RFC/Cistercian College Roscrea), 2. Diarmuid Barron (Cashel RFC/Rockwell College), 3. Oli Jager (Naas RFC/Newbridge College/Blackrock College); 4. Tom Ahern (Youghal RFC/Dungarvan RFC/Waterpark RFC), 5. Fineen Wycherley (Bantry Bay RFC/Cistercian College Roscrea); 6. Jack O’Donoghue (C) (Waterpark RFC), 7. Alex Kendellen (PBC), 8. Gavin Coombes (Skibbereen RFC).
Replacements: 16. Niall Scannell (PBC), 17. Kieran Ryan (Shannon RFC/St Munchin’s College), 18. John Ryan (Muskerry RFC/CBC), 19. Brian Gleeson (Thurles RFC/Rockwell College), 20. John Hodnett (Clonakilty RFC), 21. Paddy Patterson (Blackrock College), 22. Tony Butler (Ennis RFC), 23. Shay McCarthy (Richmond RFC/St Munchin’s College).
Scarlets: 15. Ioan Nicholas (Pontyberem); 14. Ellis Mee (West Bridgeford), 13. Joe Roberts (Burry Port), 12. Johnny Williams (Rams), 11. Steff Evans (Felinfoel); 10. Ioan Lloyd (CRICC), 9. Gareth Davies (Newcastle Emlyn; capt); 1. Kemsley Mathias (Narberth), 2. Marnus van der Merwe (Hoërskool Nelspruit), 3. Archer Holz (Lightning Ridge Tigers), 4. Max Douglas (Manly Marlins), 5. Sam Lousi (Bay Roskill Vikings), 6. Taine Plumtree (Old Boys University, Wellington), 7. Dan Davis (Llandeilo), 8. Vaea Fifita (Lions, Tonga)
Replacements: 16. Ryan Elias (Carmarthen Athletic), 17. Alec Hepburn (Henley Hawks), 18. Sam Wainwright (Rhyl), 19. Alec Craig (Stewartry), 20. Jarrod Taylor (Western Province), 21. Archie Hughes (Tenby), 22. Charlie Titcombe (Stanford), 23. Macs Page (Crymych).
In the interim between writing the intro and this part, I’m after developing a full-blown man-flu so I’ll sum up my thoughts on this tactical battle as succinctly as I can.
Munster’s kryptonite over the last few years has been highly structured set-piece teams that play with an off-ball or close-to-off-ball counter-transition configuration, with a big defensive breakdown focus. Last season, Glasgow undid us in the semi-final using those tactics and Scarlets’ resurgence this season after a poor 2023/24 is entirely based on going back to these basics.
Last season, the Scarlets were very much basing their game on unstructured rugby and, as a result, they were scoring a lot of tries on transition. This year, Dwayne Peel’s changes have completely altered their approach. They were an on-ball side with a heavy focus on transition, but this year they’ve switched the polarity on that game and have gone from being one of the lowest volume and lowest distance kicking teams in the league to the third highest.
They kick long and often – mostly off #9 – and have won more turnovers in defence than any other team in the URC this season. You’ll primarily see this in their exits, where they go high and long off #9; look for Munster to scheme direct transition responses to this tendency early and often.
This has been really effective for them. Their defence is now forcing turnovers and, instead of overplaying off those opportunities, they are mostly getting the ball downfield and pressing the opposition as they chase after a bouncing ball. That kind of game only works with a rock-solid set piece and they’ve certainly got that down; they have the second-best lineout in the league rated on completion and the best scrum. They also excel at kicking three points whenever possible to wind the clock down and build incremental pressure on opponents who get too hasty chasing after their low pass volume, mixed passing range offensive game.
My read of the Scarlets’ plan for this game is based on getting a lot of contestables into the tramlines and in behind our midfield press on the set piece to force us backwards and frustrate us with scrums and pressured exits.
One thing we know for sure, though – we will get a lot of opportunities on transition. And few teams in Europe have been as good as scoring on turnover possession as Munster this season.
We’ll need it for this one. The Scarlets have good set red zone defence so I feel if we want to take advantage of the quite high 22 entries they concede on average per game, it’ll be easier from 30m out than it is from 5m.
On the defensive side of the ball, I really feel that heavy middle pressure in the lineout through Ahern and O’Donoghue can have an outsized impact on Scarlets’ excellent first-phase strike plays. The Scarlets love hitting that middle zone to launch their strike plays or kick exits. We don’t want to get pulled around via Burns and Scannell off those lineouts so, for me, the best cover is making them take the front by using Ahern as a spoiler.
If we can bring their lineout completion down, we’ll force more kick returns and open up space for O’Connor, Kilgallen, Daly and Farrell to really get creative in those flow spaces on the edge.
