For the third straight series in a row – a full Southern Hemisphere loop – the Lions will play a test decider for all the marbles. It’s a testament to the Lions as a concept that they can even be in a position to play a game like this. A team put together from four different nations in a few weeks before playing one of the traditional Big Three away from home shouldn’t work, right? The modern game is built on cohesion – units within units within units – but the Lions, a team who cannot have the same cohesion levels as their opponents by their very nature, have managed to buck the trend over and over again repeatedly since the turn of the last decade. It shouldn’t work. All logic suggests that the last two series should have ended 3-0 to the hosts yet here we are, with another Lions win in the bank from the first test and 80 minutes to see what’s what with the Springboks in the third.
Forget about the social media bollocks because it is just that; bollocks. It can be easy to get discouraged looking at referee videos, stage-managed leaks and the endless Twitter beef but forget about all that. This is a test series decider in South Africa. This only happens once every 12 years.
It’s time to.. well, you know.
The Lions have reshuffled their deck in the aftermath of an emphatic second test defeat but it seems like something of a compromise mish-mash of a team halfway between a Gatland style selection and a Townsend one. They have a tempo scrumhalf paired with Dan Biggar at halfback in a series that has seen the halfbacks on both sides kick over 70 times between them in the two tests to date. They have a pair of hitters in midfield with no obvious secondary playmaker at fullback. It seems to me – rightly or wrongly – that the Lions have been crying out for that second/third handling option in this series but instead of doing that, the coaching staff have seemed to move in the opposite direction.
They have selected Finn Russell on the bench, though, which in the context of this third test decider is like cracking open a break-in-case-of-emergency mystery box and finding a trombone inside. Finn Russell is probably not the ideal player to guide the Lions home in a tight, one or two-point game of chess. If the Lions are down two scores with 15 minutes left, however, maybe the power of Finn Russell’s jazz music can save the day – although I’d rather literally anyone else standing over a difficult penalty with 79:30 on the clock and a kick to win the series.
Can this chimera Lions selection do enough to stun the Springboks like two weeks ago? Or have Nienaber’s squad used the unofficial test and the two tests to date to shave the rust off their game to the point where they continue their second test dominance?
Springboks: 15. Willie Le Roux, 14. Cheslin Kolbe, 13. Lukhanyo Am, 12. Damian De Allende, 11. Makazole Mapimpi, 10. Handré Pollard, 9. Cobus Reinach; 1. Steven Kitshoff, 2. Bongi Mbonambi, 3. Frans Malherbe, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 5. Lood De Jager, 6. Siya Kolisi (c), 7. Franco Mostert, 8. Jasper Wiese
Replacements: 16. Malcolm Marx, 17. Trevor Nyakane, 18. Vincent Koch, 19. Marco Van Staden, 20. Kwagga Smith, 21. Herschel Jantjies, 22. Morné Steyn, 23. Damian Willemse
The Springbok defensive system is devasting in its simplicity, relatively speaking.
The beauty of it is that its key weakness is blindingly obvious and the same as every high blitz, heavy line speed system – it’s a variety of kicks over the top of the defensive line from a variety of positions relative to the line speed itself.
The catch is that to beat it, you have to voluntarily give up your possession of the ball for a relatively low percentage kicking opportunity. Where is the space against the Springboks? It’s here.
It’s there on set-piece and it’s there on certain phase play progressions but it isn’t as simple as just “kick it to the space”.
The second you decide to kick – or you decide to call a scheme that has a kick option in it – you commit to surrendering possession at some stage in the hope of hitting that area of space that the Springboks aren’t directly guarding. Once the ball leaves your foot, usually under heavy line speed pressure too which adds to the difficulty, you are offering a prayer up to the rugby gods that everything from the flight of the ball, to the bounce, to the outcome of any aerial duel falls in your favour.
Like this option on the same play. The space is right there, right?
Yes, but you have to get the ball into a zone that your chaser can run onto it while freezing the opposition defender to a slower pace to better isolate him for an aerial win that will lead to a try-scoring opportunity and if you get it wrong, you risk giving up possession in touch at best and giving all the benefits of the kick to the opposition to the point that they might score the try you wanted to score at worst.
These zones are open but to attack them you must risk a fair bit yourself to hit those zones, way more than putting the ball through the hands which the Springbok defensive system is designed to build incremental pressure on with every pass in sequence.
The Lions have consistently looked to attack these zones against the Springboks across both tests, surrendering everything from the usual “have a go on penalty advantage” stuff to decent position around their own 10m line to prime attacking sequences on the Springbok 22m line.
The principle is usually based on one fixed truth; the Lions are taller and longer from a wingspan POV than the Springboks under the high ball by almost every metric in the zones that the Lions have consistently targeted.
Duhan Van Der Merwe has limits to his game, for certain, but he is 6’4″, quick and capable of disrupting any aerial challenge you put in front of him. Robbie Henshaw might be a guy that you want to see running with the ball in hand but he’s also 6’4″ with a big wingspan, great pace and capable of tangling with anyone in the air. Chris Harris is 6’2″ and was mostly used as an aerial threat in the second test, as was Anthony Watson. Liam Williams, 6’2″, is cut from the same template regardless of anything else he might be capable of.
The Lions have repeatedly tried to isolate the 5’7″ Cheslin Kolbe, the 6’0″ Makazole Mapimpi, the 6’1″ Willie Le Roux and the 6’1″ Lukhayno Am in those aerial contests. Whatever about attacking structures and multiple playmakers, the Lions will be reluctant to go too far away from this concept. The Lions chasers don’t have to catch those kicks but they are expected to pressure the landing zone and, at the very least, bat the ball back for secondary chasers to attack. Liam Williams was particularly good at this for Saracens during their 2019 run to the Champions Cup.
The Lions have kicked a lot in this series – not more than South Africa, but enough all the same – but when they have kicked off #10 it’s usually with this principle of aerial pressure in mind.
Harris and Van Der Merwe don’t need to catch this ball in this situation for the Lions to judge this play a success but Willie Le Roux does. This is how the Lions have tried to attack the Springboks in the air consistently with aerial mismatches. This isn’t what you would call “cracking” the defensive system, however. This is getting into a high ball exchange with the Springboks, something they are expecting and relatively comfortable dealing with. That said, the Lions win in the first test was largely secured off the back of multiple aerial contest “wins” so Gatland will be wary of going too far away from this tactic.
If you want to break the Springboks with the ball in hand without a distinct second playmaker archetype, I think adding a short-range kicking game is probably the best option from first receiver. For me, that means kicking from the second layer off a screen pass. The Springbok defensive line doesn’t press in a uniform manner from the ruck to the edge of the primary line. If they did, they’d be way easier to attack against. They press near the ruck – blitzing the near pod of three – and then the edge of the defensive line progresses with an even more aggressive blitz if the ball progresses beyond a certain position.
Kicking from the “hinge” point in their defensive progression – between the near and middle press – is the best bet to find reliable spacing in the backfield but you can’t access it by kicking directly from 9. You have to draw the middle and edge blitz up and the only way to do that is by kicking off a screen pass off #9.
The Lions produced this picture relatively regularly.
The key is to build enough depth into your wider structure that the Springboks edge winger has to blitz up to stay on scheme.
If the Lions can work that position they should get Biggar into a position where he can angle a shallow kick towards Lukhanyo Am with Henshaw, Williams Duhan Van Der Merwe and/or Josh Adams chasing.
The Lions don’t just have to rely on kicking, however.
In the first test, the Lions managed to get a few transition schemes together that hurt the Boks repeatedly. When the Springboks exited off #9 – which they should still do, even without De Klerk – it opened up these two transition opportunities.
On both occasions ,the Lions went two phases infield – to draw the Boks into their regular defensive shape – and then looked to strike back towards the touchline with an identical strike unit; a forward running a block line on the second last defender, a playmaker to hit the pass and Jack Conan + two outside backs.
Each time, it produced a workable break.
This second example is a little rougher because the passing broke down on the second pass infield but the action on the edge is identical with Curry running that block line on De Klerk and the Lions finding Henshaw with Conan and Watson running outside.
The one thing you can guarantee against the Springboks is that you will have kick transition opportunities so if they Lions can build on this two in, one out strike play, there are opportunities to play the kind of rugby that could shock the World Champions in this decider.
