There was a time during the mid to late 2000s when the idea of Ronan O’Gara picking up so much as a hamstring strain before the Six Nations was something of an existential crisis for Irish Rugby. It was either Ronan O’Gara starting at #10 or it was a few decades of the rosary and the hope that utility back Paddy Wallace could get us through whatever game he was needed for until O’Gara returned.

If O’Gara didn’t return?

Well, thankfully, that rarely happened during O’Gara’s time as Ireland’s fulcrum. Between 2000 and 2013, Ireland played 65 games in the Six Nations and O’Gara featured in 63 of them. He played in all of Ireland’s World Cup games between 2003 and 2011.

O’Gara had many qualities but one of his most underappreciated ones was his durability. Whenever Ireland – or Munster – needed him, he was almost always ready to play.

As a result, live questions over who might replace O’Gara were never really all that pressing, certainly during the mid-2000s. I must say, though, that when he landed the drop goal to win the Grand Slam in 2009 at 32 years of age I remember hearing the first few worried questions about who might possibly replace him.

We all remember the rise of Sexton a few months after that Grand Slam win and the duel that followed over the next three seasons but Sexton wasn’t really on anyone’s radar as a test mainstay up until the point that he saw out Leinster’s first Heineken Cup win as the starting #10. One and a half games – that’s what it took to change the narrative.

Since Sexton eventually overtook O’Gara, he has pretty much matched his availability. Since 2010, Ireland have played 60 Six Nations games and Sexton has taken the field for 55 of those games. In fact, this Six Nations just gone is the first time since 2017 that Sexton played fewer than four Six Nations games. Since he ascended to the #1 slot in the 2012 Six Nations, Sexton has been “the guy” in Irish rugby with an astonishing level of durability and availability. Maybe it’s Sexton’s relatively late arrival as a truly elite-level talent – for me around 26/27 during the 2010-11/2011-12 stretch – but it feels like there hasn’t been a massive push to replace Sexton as he aged through his late 20s and early 30s despite his relative importance increasing every season.

Paddy Jackson was generally considered to be the Sexton replacement/alternate in the middle of the 2010s but when Ulster and IRFU were left with no other option but to terminate his contract in April 2017, Ireland’s on-field depth chart behind Sexton looked decidedly ropey.

Joey Carbery, who emerged as a real prospect at #10 that same season, was the obvious player worth investing in given Jack Carty wasn’t rated as a serious option at the time, Ian Keatley was just after one of the worst seasons of his career and Tyler Bleyendaal, a long time project player option, had long term injury worries. When Bleyendaal broke down again at the start of 2017/18 – after seriously impressing at an Ireland camp – the focus fell purely on Carbery as the Next Man Up.

Post Grand Slam 2018, the IRFU were faced with the very real issue of the next viable #10 after Sexton benching for him in every game of consequence for Leinster and Ireland so they decided to make a switch mid-contract. Did the Jackson situation force their hand? I don’t think the timing is a coincidence. With Jackson at Ulster, they had their alternate playing regular top-level games for Ulster as the main man but with Carbery at Leinster, they could not duplicate that level of onboarding.

The IRFU binned Jackson in April 2018 and, a month or two later, they were plotting a way to get Carbery minutes as a #1 guy.

Ulster was an option for Carbery in the build-up to the 2018 summer tour to Australia but they were in the middle of some serious tumult at the time, even outside of the Jackon/Olding scandal, so Munster was the only serious option. It suited both parties. Well, everyone except Leinster.

At that stage, Van Graan had already suffered the loss of Bleyendaal to the injuries that would ultimately retire him after an outstanding 2016/17 season, Keatley was on his way out of the club and Hanrahan wasn’t considered to be a top-level option so Carbery becoming available solved a problem position with a potentially foundational talent.

And, from the IRFU’s perspective, they got a high potential young #10 starting big games a year out from the 2019 World Cup.

But it didn’t work out that way.

Of the 30 Six Nations games that Ireland have played since Joey Carbery made his test debut, he has only featured in 17 of them due to injury. Of those 17 games, Carbery has only started on two occasions. In total, Joey Carbery has only started 11 times in his 38 tests to date. For context, Paddy Jackson started 11 of his 23 caps prior to 2018.

Make no mistake, injury has been the biggest factor here. I would posit that Carbery is still not fully “right” after his extended injury break from the 2019 World Cup to the start of 2021/22, essentially.

That time out of the game meant that Carbery missed the opportunity to shape Munster’s game plan around him on-field and robbed him of the guts of two years worth of experience building and in-game intellect forming. But we are where we are and he can’t get that time back. The Joey Carbery we’ve seen this season has fluctuated up and down quite a bit. From flashes of brilliance at home to Exeter, to a decent outing against France in the Six Nations to some games where he was mostly anonymous – this isn’t what anyone would have planned in 2018.

It used to be a certainty that Joey Carbery would replace Sexton but, a bit like Ian Madigan before him, Ireland’s system is set up to work with a driving flyhalf, not a smaller, floating flyhalf like Carbery is, at least in theory. And there is no incentive to change.

Eddie Jones is attempting to bridge that divide for England by playing their floating flyhalf Marcus Smith with their driving flyhalf Owen Farrell to get the best of both worlds but what Ireland are currently doing seems to be working well so there is no real impetus to change up our offensive structure that radically or the positional upheaval that would come with it.

First things first, what am I talking about?

Generally, there are two types of flyhalves as I’ve come to describe them in my own behind-the-scenes ranting and raving.

The Driving Flyhalf and the Floating Flyhalf.

A Driving Flyhalf is generally a bigger framed creative player that, in theory at least, could easily slot into the #12 channel defensively and offensively from a carrying threat perspective. That direct carrying threat from first receiver is a core part of their game and opens up compressions that they can pass around. As that carrying threat degrades, the bigger, heavier driving flyhalf can be augmented with secondary handlers to take up some of their possessions at first receiver.

A team built around a driving flyhalf will typically be more integrated between forwards and backs to provide multiple grades of carrying threat for the driving flyhalf to hit off their own inside compressions. They are most suited to a short-ball game from the scrumhalf between the 22s to take advantage of how anchored the to first receiver position they usually are when they are the primary playmaker. They are best played with “hitter” midfield archetypes to enhance their own carrying threat.

An elite Driving Flyhalf is very hard to develop but if they get to that elite level, they are incredibly effective.

Role Samples: Johnny Sexton, Owen Farrell, Handré Pollard, Dan Biggar.
Potential Irish Role Samples: Ben Healy, Harry Byrne, Ciaran Frawley, Sam Prendergast, Charlie Tector, Cathal Forde.

If you look at Leinster’s flyhalf roster – senior and academy – you see a common theme. All of them are potentially Driving Flyhalf archetype players. It makes sense when you consider how well Sexton has worked for them. Why not continue to build on that archetype?

Ross Byrne who, in theory, fits the physical scope of a Driving Flyhalf archetype down to a tee – he’s 6’4″ and 95kg – is let down by a lack of elite athleticism when it comes to his own carrying game. Without that to underpin his game, elite defences that have more than parity in the forward collisions eat up any attack with him at the core. That wouldn’t be a problem if Leinster and Ireland were off-ball teams but they are not and that’s a problem for Ross Byrne. He can’t force compressions with his carrying game so he ends up being a plant and sling passer more often than he’d like when the heat comes on. He’s perfectly serviceable for most URC and European pool games, however.  Leinster and Ireland will hope that Harry Byrne does not have these tendencies and a higher top level but he’s already getting people wondering if he’s durable enough for what Leinster need him to be.

Ciaran Frawley got people talking this week after the Māori All Blacks game and, at 6’3″ with a good carrying game and good defence honed in the #12 channel for the last two years, he would seem to be ahead of Ross and Harry Byrne in that area of the game. What is his passing, phase for phase strategising and behaviour under pressure like though? We’ll only see that with more minutes at #10 going forward.

Ben Healy has all the tools needed to be a driving flyhalf – with a massive boot for goal kicking and counter-transition starters – but needs to show that he can blend his physical size into a carrying game that can create compressions and an eye for exploiting them without using long sling passes as a short cut.

The Floating Flyhalf is a smaller framed player that relies more on their elusiveness, pace, acceleration, agility and threat on kick transition to create outside compressions but also directly attack gaps in the opposition defensive line. They are often seen floating behind the lines of the attack or away from the first receiver position where they can strike directly at isolated forwards or dropping off defenders.

The Floating Flyhalf has to be quick and elusive to make their attacking system work. They have to have a sharp passing game and good kicking mechanics off their motion to keep opposing forwards and midfielders off them. You will often see these players in less integrated offensive systems – a flat 1-3-3-1, for example – to allow them more freedom to move. They are best paired with a playmaking midfielder, strike runners at #13 and fullback, an outside winger and an inside power winger that can allow the Floating Flyhalf to dart through different pods and show up on the second or third pass. They have a varied passing game but excel in pinpoint short to mid-range passes across gaps as they themselves are on the move against an adjusting defence.

A sub-variety of floating flyhalf is the Floating Strategist who isn’t as much of a breaking threat but does have a particularly buffed skill set in either passing or kicking or both – a good example here would be Finn Russell, Jack Carty, George Ford or Richie Mo’unga.

Role Samples: Paulo Garbisi, Romain Ntamack, Marcus Smith, Matthieu Carbonel, Beauden Barrett.
Potential Irish Role Samples: Joey Carbery, Jack Crowley, Jake Flannery, Tony Butler.

Without the injury troubles, Joey Carbery fits into the perfect role sample for the Floating Flyhalf but I have real concerns over his ability to force compressions with his pace and agility off the screen or in the wider channels at this stage. He seems to be a little behind in what his brain knows his body can do and that means he ends up shipping on a lot of ball to static runners because his own threat is minimal at the moment.

A change in strategy – and a change of who plays with him at #9 – can extend his lines and give him more opportunities to attack spacing around the C defender at pace. Too often last season Carbery was waiting for service only to bail out on the carry against a packed defensive line. More pace will help him. Jack Crowley looks like he has all the physical attributes needed to be elite but I would say he needs tempering on the tactical side of the game.

Whatever comes next for Ireland post-Sexton, it will be dependent on style. Who is playing a Driving Flyhalf style? Who is playing a Floating style? Who has the best role players? That will decide the #10 jersey in the medium term because even Johnny Sexton can’t keep going into his 40s.

Right?