Ireland don’t have a hope in this game.

At least, you’d assume they don’t given how certain sections of the media have been talking about Ireland since the disappointing loss to England in the first round. Two losses in two years (including a win over the All Blacks and a series win in Australia in that time) and some pundits are talking about a “broken machine“. Sometimes I wonder if Ireland were shooting for a Grand Slam today would people be guffing away about “peaking too soon” with the World Cup on the horizon? We can only guess.

Anyway – Wales are a very good side, but you know that already. They’re on a great run, they’ve got the smell of a Grand Slam in their nostrils and, roof closed or not, they’ll be playing with a hot crowd at their back and won’t want for motivation.

How do Ireland go about stopping the seemingly unstoppable Welsh momentum? Let’s get into it.

Red Eye Report :: Wales (A)

I’ve decided to change this up slightly. I thought it would be cool to show where I rate the opposition (and Ireland) as a whole in a World Rugby context as first choice units and then, depending on the how far away both Ireland and the opposition are from what I would consider “full strength”, how the teams actually taking the field rate against each other.

S – Elite level
A – Good World Level
B – Average World Level
C – Poor World Level

Guinness Six Nations 2019 Round 5 :: Wales v Ireland

Full Strength Red Eye Rating: Wales (S) / Ireland (S)
Teamsheet Adjusted Red Eye Rating: Wales (A+) / Ireland (S)
Current Six Nations Form Over Last 5 Games: Wales (WWWWW) / Ireland (WWWLW

The Roof, The Roof, The Roof Is Wide Open

A big talking point during the week was Ireland’s decision to keep the roof of the Principality Stadium open, even though the weather forecast suggests a lot of rain and wind in the buildup to – and following on from – the kickoff time of 14:45 PM.

The reaction in Wales has been hysterical (WARNING: Wales Online behind the link) but why would Ireland have decided to keep the roof open? The stuff about “not wanting to face the atmosphere” – as I’ve seen in my mentions – is a cod, mainly because you think no roof is going to dampen the atmosphere that much? Did you hear the crowd during the England game? A bit of rain won’t be a factor.

So why did England and Ireland choose to keep the roof open despite inclement weather conditions?

We can only guess but in my opinion, the reasons are two-fold.

1. Greasy conditions and a swirling wind will serve to narrow the Welsh attack and expose their relative lack of heavy ball carriers to Ireland’s heavy defence meaning more chances for handling errors, strips and turnovers.
2. Strong winds and a greasy surface will make the Welsh lineout easier to predict and attack, while the conditions will also make positional errors from the Welsh wingers easier to exploit.

For this article, I’m going to focus on the lineout sequence that Ireland could possibly look to exploit in this game.

Sequencing

I describe “sequencing” as creating the conditions through which you can best execute your game plan by performing some actions you have a fair idea will succeed.

These actions are based on what you perceive your own strengths to be and how those strengths stack up against what you perceive your opponent’s weaknesses to be with the weather/referee taken into consideration as factors.

For example, in this game, I think Ireland’s preferred sequence will be based on our kicking game and strong defensive lineout.

The weather conditions (with the roof open) will make the positional work of the big Welsh wingers even more high-risk. If the pitch is greasy, then it’ll make even the slightest positional miscalculation more costly if Sexton, Murray or Ringrose can catch the Welsh wingers shooting into the defensive line.

I don’t think Schmidt will have missed Josh Adam’s turning speed on this kick from Farrell;

Ben Youngs went after North’s side on a few occasions too.

This exposes a facet in Wales centre-field defence.

When the opposition are pressing Wales between the 10m lines, Anscombe often drops back as an auxiliary fullback to cover the high press of the big Welsh wingers.

You can actually see the structure here;

It’s pretty good backfield coverage but it does create space to kick into from the base of the ruck – Conor Murray could have a big game here – and with more accurate kicks from #10 or midfield if you can draw North and Adams up into the line.

If we get Wales throwing into the lineout in their own half of the field, we’ll be able to attack their lineout and the wetter and windier it is, the better.

Structure Problem

The Welsh back row has a lineout problem in that they don’t have any – in my opinion, anyway – elite jumpers amongst Tipuric, Navidi and Moriarty. Navidi and Moriarty are certainly capable of jumping in the lineout, don’t get me wrong. I fully expect Wales to mix it up and go to Moriarty/Navidi at least once as a decoy option given Ireland’s aerial pressure on lineouts. Justin Tipuric is the best jumper of the lot but doesn’t really have the elite speed into the air, acceleration or handling at the top of the jump that I normally associate with top class back row jumpers. He’s light though – relatively speaking – and the tallest of the Welsh back row at 6’2″.

That’s even more unusual when you consider that Tipuric has been Wales’ primary lineout target in the last two rounds of the Six Nations.

In their last two games (against England and Scotland), Wales had the following successful lineout targets:

Tipuric: 10
Beard: 2
Jones: 2
Hill: 1
North: 1

Of these successful lineouts, five were taken at the front, nine were taken in the middle and two were taken at the tail (by Jones exclusively). Tipuric took the ball in the middle on seven occasions but three times at the front. Beard took one at the front and one in the middle. North took a sneaky no-jump ball at the front of the lineout and Hill took a standard ball to the middle.

Wales first lineout against England revealed a few issues, for me.

First, have a look at their alignment in the middle of the line. All three primary jumping targets are in a tight cluster as the lineout forms.

Navidi is in front of Tipuric, with Moriarty in the “receiver” position, where he often steps in as the last minute lifter. Francis, the tighthead, is at the front of the lineout while Hill and Jones patrol the middle and tail respectively with Evans as a lifter.

Let’s watch it play out;

We can tell by Tipuric and Moriarty’s actions that this was a maul feint to put Moriarty away at George but we can also tell a lot by Wales’ feinting during the lineout itself.

We’ve two fakes on Hill and a step back jump by Jones with Evans and Francis lifting but England take the ball cleanly. Why? They saw this coming a mile away as Wales removed credible options through their feinting.

As Wales concertinaed closer to the front of the lineout with Hill and Jones, the lineout maul became incrementally less dangerous to the English pack, who’d back themselves to stuff any maul that Wales would build 12m out from the try line. Kruis, Vunipola and Moon could afford to track the Jones movement from the back as a secondary option. Essentially, if Hill took this at the front, Kruis wouldn’t have launched and he – along with Vunipola, Moon and Sinckler – would have hit Wales towards the touchline. When Hill stepped out, Kruis had enough time to react, set the jump and get into the air before Jones.

Jones speed into the air isn’t great here. Neither is Francis’ (a 20 stone tighthead prop) speed over the ground to get to the lift point. This is a fundamental problem with the Welsh lineout in that their two strongest jumpers as selected (Jones and Beard) are slow jumpers into the air that need one or both props lifting them. That reduces Owens potential targets and puts a lot of pressure on Tipuric, who is quicker into the air than Jones and Beard but doesn’t need as much effort to lift.

On the next lineout, Wales went with Tipuric in the middle lifted by Hill and Navidi for a quick take uncontested by England.

Later in the half, England pressurised the Welsh defence with a kick that forced a defensive lineout in the Welsh 22.

In this position, the Welsh have to disguise their quick jump option because of the pressure England have already put on Jones’ previous jump.

Tipuric starts off at the front in a low launch position with Francis squatting too low to be a credible lifting option in this position. Jones comes around the front to try and take Sinckler’s eyes off Francis as the launch comes in but England don’t buy it.

Lawes doesn’t even get a good counter-launch in but he can still beat Tipuric to the top of his jump and spoil the possession.

With Lawes patrolling the front to pressure the bailout ball option to their pace jumper, Wales began to feel the pressure and got very little high-quality lineout ball for much of this game as a result.

Look at how Lawes presence with one lifter – in much the same that O’Mahony will do today – allowed England to track and launch at Wales’ slower jumpers.

By squeezing the front, England could gamble on a strong counter-launch in the middle of the lineout. This will be where Tadhg Beirne will really look to attack the likes of Beard/Jones/Tipuric and their option jumpers as the game progresses.

The presence of the 6’8″ Adam Beard means that Wales should have a decent bailout option and Gatland is nothing if not crafty. Wales first lineout against Scotland had Tipuric feinting at the front of the lineout to bring Beard in lifted by Francis and Jones.

Had Gray not been taken out of his initial jump by Tipuric’s feint, he might well have fancied his chances against Beard in the air here. This is a pretty slow take by Wales and they needed that extra deception to beat Scotland’s counter-launch.

It didn’t work a second time;

From then on, Scotland mostly went to Tipuric at the front and had up the tempo of their throw to shake off Scotland’s pressure, especially through Toolis.

If Ireland can turn this into a race between O’Mahony and Tipuric at the front of the lineout with Beard rotating in as a feint option, we’ll steal one or two of their lineouts. If we can pressurise Owens throw in wet, windy conditions and get him throwing over the threat of O’Mahony, we can use Beirne to attack Jones/Beard/Decoy Jumper in the middle and tail.

If we can do that, kicking becomes a high-value asset as it’ll allow us to use the Welsh lineout against them. We might not steal every ball but if we can stuff their mauls, force handling errors or bad exits we’ll be most of the way to where we’ll need to be to win this game.

Looking forward to it.