They are better than what we have faced before.

But you should already know that. As challenges go in this game there are none bigger, badder or more intimidating than the All Blacks. Everyone always talks about how physical the Springboks are but New Zealand have been and will be even more physical than that. They are the best side on the planet and have been for the last eight years. What can you say about them? Their attack is lethal and is based on “best in the game” basics. Their set piece is mechanical and bordering on immaculate. Their defence is efficient and intelligent. They are the best in the game in transition. They can play smooth rugby or fuck you up in the tight. The All Blacks are The Bar in this game and any side that wants to call themselves the best can’t do it without beating New Zealand.

Ireland – let’s call it like it is – beat a New Zealand side who were missing a few key guys in Chicago. That doesn’t take away from the achievement, of course, because the All Blacks are that good that they’d have beaten any other side in the world that day regardless, but the return fixture in Dublin a few weeks later showed things closer to how they actually were at the time.

New Zealand won the physical battle that day in Dublin. CJ Stander and Robbie Henshaw were – again, let’s call it like it was – taken out by cheap shoulder shots to the head that would see red if they happened today (you’d imagine). The All Blacks have a reputation for beautiful rugby but that shouldn’t detract that they are as tough a team as there is in this game and you won’t win a fucking thing against them if you don’t beat them up. That’s what the Lions did. That’s what South Africa did in Wellington a few weeks back. That’s what England did for the 35 minutes.

And it’s what Ireland must do here.

We won’t be wanting for motivation after 2016 but walking that line between the being as thuggish as we need to be and keeping our discipline will be hugely important. New Zealand are the best in the world at dancing on that razor blade and if we want to win we’ll have to dance right up there beside them.

Let’s have a look at the teams;

I’ll cover both selections in the Blood & Thunder Podcast.

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The Green Eye Report: New Zealand

An “A” would be considered top class by International standards, a “B” would be considered average by regular test standard, a “C” would be considered poor by test standard and an “E” would be something I’d consider an exploitable weakness.  

Set Piece

Offensive Scrummaging – A
Defensive Scrummaging – A 
Attacking Lineout – A
Defensive Lineout – A
Offensive Maul – A
Defensive Maul – B 

Open Play

Defensive Structure – B
Phase Play Power – A
Attacking Creativity – A
Structured Attack Off Set Piece – A 
Structured Defence Off Set Piece – A  
Overall Fitness – A 
Kicking – A
Back Three Kick Positioning – A

No Known Weaknesses

Well – not entirely. If I was to go after the All Blacks in any particular area it would be in the maul and on their multi-phase defence. These aren’t “weaknesses” in a way that they would be for any other side but let’s just say in the shining array of All Black skills, those two are ones that are slightly –  almost to the point of imperceptibility – dimmer than the rest.

In my opinion, those two “weaknesses” are inherently linked.

New Zealand are an extremely good defensive lineout side in that they have a few excellent counter-jumpers and a sophisticated counter-launch system.

They aren’t averse to having two jumpers go after a lineout if they think there’s a possibility of upsetting their opponent’s system and Retallick, in particular, can be a nightmare to get around at the front of the lineout with his excellent counter-jump and wingspan.

When he’s paired with Whitelock and Scott Barrett at #6 off the bench, Retallick can be a nightmare at the front of the lineout on supposed “banker ball” throws. He did a right number on the English lineout in the second half when the presence of Barrett instead of Squire at the tail of the lineout forced England into more conservative patterns that suited Retallick down to the ground. Ireland can’t fall into the same trap and it’s no surprise to see Toner restored to the starting XV make early possession in this game an easier target while Barrett is off the field. The Barrett factor is quite important, especially when he’s brought on for Squire rather than Whitelock/Retallick. When New Zealand make that change, it allows them to mirror up on an opponents lineout and specifically mark known jumpers.

Barrett marks Lawes, Retaillick tracks Itoje and gets up for the steal. New Zealand will do this when you insert a bit of fear into them with your maul.

England and South Africa managed to do that at differing points in their recent encounters.

A few things stick out to me here;

What’s the common factor in all of these? Infield drives. This tends to get good mileage out of the All Blacks because of the way they defend mauls around the fringes. Look at how low the edge defender goes on the legs of the lifter.

This is great for stopping forward movement but allows for lateral movement to essentially take them out of the counter-push. England scored a maul try from relatively long range by moving quickly infield and removing the All Black edge defenders from the shove until it was too late to stop the momentum.

This isn’t a glaring weakness necessarily but it does show an area for Ireland to attack. If we can get New Zealand chasing our jumpers we should get some good initial road from infield drives that’ll lead to a finish or good options off the break, especially down the blindside.

Unbalance In Phase

If you can get New Zealand into phased defence, there are opportunities to attack some of their tendencies.

First, their system.

New Zealand, much like Argentina, play a modified, 11 up 4 back defensive system once you get them into multi-phase. You’ll see Aaron Smith floating behind the point of the ruck (R) while McKenzie and Barrett float in the backfield. Smith and Ioane will operate at the edges to step back on kick defence and step up and out on wide hand plays.

Like any 11 up defensive system, balance and decision making are beyond vital to their structure.

England did excellently to unbalance that All Blacks defence early in the game. The finishing part of that opening Ashton try is something you’ve probably already seen but HOW that opportunity was created is what interests me.

England went after multiple narrow phases, generated quick ball and, when the time came, used some nice movement in the second layer to feint the All Blacks away from the point of the attack.

What we’re seeing here is a bad defensive fold – something that we just don’t see very often from the All Blacks.

You’ll notice Retallick and Smith buying that England were off to the openside and legging it away from the short side of the ruck at 01:45 on the match clock.

They do that because they were watching England’s backline core coalesce on the openside, with Barrett, T’eo and Slade resetting wide in the second layer.

You can see the finishing position that so-concerned the All Blacks as the ball goes wide to Ashton.

It was enough to unbalance the All Black defence but that itself only happened because of the power, pace and intensity of England’s ball carrying off the scrum. This is where Bundee Aki will be massively important in this game – off the first phase as both a carrier, a decoy, a passer and a rucker. If we can set the initial point of the first phase attack far away enough from the initial set piece to set a race point, we can set up the All Blacks for a similar unbalancing. Once they move to the ruck point, a few quick ball carries from the likes of Aki, Stander, Furlong and Ryan could open up space for Ringrose and Earls to work.

The All Blacks will be well aware of Sexton’s playmaking abilities – and they’ll go after him as you’d expect – but Ringrose’s passing ability will have been noted too. He can act in much the same way that Le Roux did for the Springboks as a wide-angle creative player who can put players away near the edge while being capable of finishing there himself.

Ireland will have to make the most of their one on one forward isolations on multiphase possession. That means nailing your timing on your runs onto the ball to maximise the damage around the seam between the Hammer and Strike zone.

If we can manage our possession in this manner and bring New Zealand through multiple phases across the pitch they can be drawn into a game they don’t like playing and that exposes defenders like both Smiths, McKenzie and Barrett to the kind of traffic that hurts them.

On New Zealand’s side of the ball, we have to watch for a few gimmicks that always seem to work for them.

They’ll think they can beat Ryan, Toner and the rest of our pack to the back of the lineout on a two feint throw to the tail for a setup. Don’t be surprised to see this or a variant of it busted out here;

That same perceived lack of pace will see them go after the space left after a wide scrum on their put in. They’ll look to catch the likes of Healy or Best as they run back into position from a scrum just like this one;

The idea being that we’ll naturally have a slow lane in that area of the pitch. This is where O’Mahony’s positioning will be vital – he cannot leave our heavy front five exposed on the edge after a scrum like this.

New Zealand also look to use this two-man break off the maul with Savea and Taylor/Cole when running an infield maul inside the Irish half but outside the 22. They’ll be going after Rory Best as the infield defender off the maul.

They’ll also be looking to target Earls and Stockdale in the air on the edges of our 13-up defensive system with a real focus on Barrett kicking from a shallow angle out to the edges for Ioane to chase on Earls. Kearney’s positioning and timing will be crucial here.

It will not be easy, which is about as much of understatement as you can get in this game.

This will be a cynical, extremely physical game that will not be for the faint of heart. New Zealand will be going after the likes of Stander, Furlong, Ryan, Sexton and Aki as our primary points of carrying and distribution and while they might not do it in as public a way as what happened Henshaw and Stander in 2016, they’ll certainly look to do a number on them here.

It’s up to Ireland to put a marker down first, and then keep putting that marker down until fulltime. Lads like Ryan, O’Mahony, Healy, Stander, Furlong, Aki, Kearney and Van Der Flier will be vital in setting the kind of tone that upset our apple cart in 2016. Whenever the All Blacks have lost, it’s been to a side that have fronted up above and beyond them. The template to this game isn’t the Springboks of this year, it’s the Lions of last year. Eighty minutes of physical oppression, relentless accuracy and a bit of luck will see Ireland upset New Zealand. It’ll be beyond tough – as tough a game as any we’ve played in the two years since this last fixture – but we have the personnel to do it.

Stand against the Haka. Hold your breath. Here we go.