Ireland have a complicated history with Japan in the last few years.
It’s like getting mugged by a guy while you’re on holiday and then, an entire two years later, he nearly mugs you again right on your own doorstep. That type of complicated. My point is, when you see that guy again down in the local Spar, you’re going to be a bit jumpy.
Our last two meetings with Japan have been difficult, to say the least, because even with one win and one loss in those two games, Ireland have somehow managed to lose twice when it comes to perception. We might have won on the scoreboard back in June but Japan frightened the life out of us to the point that we wouldn’t empty our bench for fear of going a man down with 10 minutes left, despite being two scores to the good
In the game of perception, Japan are everything that Ireland are not when it comes to the offensive side of the ball. Where we are still a little janky and still in search of an attacking identity two years after Joe Schmidt’s departure, Japan are the embodiment of what Jamie Joseph wants from the game of rugby.
So if you were expecting a heavily experimental Irish side for this game in light of the chat about building for the World Cup in 2023 for this fixture, think again. This team selection is the equivalent of walking into that Spar faking a phone call where you loudly talk about all the Krav Maga lessons you’ve been taking so anyone thinking of mugging you had better watch out.
This has the feeling of being as strong a side as Andy Farrell thinks he can name right now, bar maybe replacing Herring with Sheehan and perhaps, Jacob Stockdale in for James Lowe but I have a feeling that’s closer to a toss-up than might be perceived on the outside. The truly experimental Ireland side would have been likely playing against the USA in Vegas last week but, with that game cancelled a few months back, it leveraged more pressure on this game than Farrell felt comfortable with. Essentially, when you have one game to build to the All Blacks and that game is against Japan, most of your experimentation will get bounced to Argentina unless you lose this upcoming game AND the All Blacks game.
When you pick what you feel is close to your strongest side that comes with the kind of must-win pressure that can leave a real mess if you come away from this game with a loss, or even a narrow win.
Japan: 15. Kotaro Matsushima; 14. Dylan Riley, 13. Timothy Lafaele, 12. Ryoto Nakamura, 11. Siosaia Fifita; 10. Yu Tamura, 9. Yutaka Nagare; 1. Keita Inagaki, 2. Atsushi Sakate, 3. Koo Ji-won; 4. Jack Cornelsen, 5. James Moore; 6. Ben Gunter, 7. Pieter Labuschagne, 8. Kazuki Himeno.
Replacements: 16. Yusuke Niwai, 17. Craig Millar, 18. Asaeli Ai Valu, 19. Yoshitaka Tokunaga, 20. Tevita Tatafu, 21. Naoto Saito, 22. Rikiya Matsuda, 23. Ryohei Yamanaka.
Getting into a game where you trade transitions with Japan is like getting into a knife fight.
The loser dies in the street and the winner dies in the hospital. This isn’t necessarily about “kicking loose” in the way that we traditionally understand the seeds of counter-attacking, more so than it’s about how you choose to use your possession, where and how you choose to surrender possession and your overall efficiency in all of these things.
Johnny Sexton – who starts on the occasion of his 100th cap – is the exact guy to be efficient in those situations and I’m going to be interested in how he manages Japan, given this is his first time playing them. And I mean first time ever.
In a general sense, the route to victory for Ireland is the same as it was in June and, to be fair, the same as it was back in 2019. The lineout. We have to secure our lineout possession consistently, we have to get Bundee Aki, Jack Conan, Ronan Kelleher and James Lowe over the gainline on first phase and then we have to rotate through our ball carrying rotation on second phase to pressure Japan into bad folds, penalty concessions at the breakdown and linebreaks.
We should have the heft to work the maul directly against Japan too, of course, but all we need is the threat of it. Back in June, when we got the ball down off the lineout we consistently found opportunities off those mauls and, in particular, maul breaks. I think the same opportunities will be there on Saturday afternoon.
Scoring against Japan won’t be that much of an issue. We will score tries. The key will be defending against them. That starts with our possession, weirdly enough. Our offensive breakdown can be a real issue for Ireland in this one if we’re not careful with our setups, especially when we’re using possession in and around the Japanese 10m line. Kazuki Himeno is a well-known breakdown threat but the same is true of a lot of this Japanese team, their two wingers included.
If we over-commit forward numbers to the attacking line rather than supporting the ruck off #9 – something Catt’s preferred attacking system can be guilty of at times – Japan can and will win clean turnovers and full penalties.
Our use of Porter, Furlong and Ryan as ball-carrying assets will have to be balanced here and I expect Aki to rack up big breakdown numbers as a guard player offensively. If you’re wondering why Aki is in there ahead of someone like Stuart McCloskey, I think it’s worth considering that his breakdown work would have been a key tiebreaker.
Once they have a penalty platform, Japan have a dangerous maul break game that a lot of their attacking fluidity stems from.
Their lineout schemes can be quite complex and work on a concept of rocking you one way with feints and cut-outs before cutting back to launch. Here’s an example of one of their shortened lineouts against Australia that demonstrate what I’m talking about.
This would be fairly typical of Japan’s “small ball” work at the lineout. They don’t have the height of Australia (or Ireland) so they use a lot of movement to get clean takes. This hurts their ability to maul effectively from longer range lineouts so their work off the maul break is usually expected by the opposition and so relies on a few certainties to build around.
They love working their big wingers in as tight “anchors” on these plays that allow their forwards to load around the corner for phases two and three. You wouldn’t think that Japan play with two power wingers given the way their style of play is perceived but they love using big wingers to underpin their lineout launches – to anchor the scheme.
Dylan Riley and Siosaia Fifita are big, powerful hitters and they are particularly effective when used in and around Kazuki Himeno off the maul break.
That concept of “loading” players is an important one to what Japan want to do. Yes, they run nice shapes and use intricate passes but that only works when there are players to pass to and screen behind. This lineout concept worked because it allowed their power winger to hit narrow, buy time for their forwards to loop around and keep their 12/13 active on the next phase. This is where the playmaking of Nakamura becomes particularly important in extending width after they have drawn your defence into central areas with a tightening around the ruck.
When Japan drag you into the middle of the field, they can attack you where they want which, to me, looks to be exploiting the positioning and decision making of your edge defenders with overwhelming numbers and overloads. They can do this off the lineout and during phase play.
Their lineout work, as I’ve mentioned, is notable for its intelligence and precision. The focus here is on dragging the opposition to the centre of the field, decaying them with depth and then hitting back against the grain before decoying that option again a few minutes later.
This kind of scheme will stress the positioning and defensive read of James Lowe, in particular, and I think Jamie Joseph will be planning a lot of action to overload his wing in particular.
Japan are really effective at drawing out and isolating those edge defenders and putting a high tax on any poor decisions. They are patient and they will work central positions – with a lot of forward interplay – to create those wider isolations.
Once they get in behind you in those wider channels, they have the handlers to hurt you all across the line after the break.
They are dangerous, they are smart and they have the clarity to hang on in there – even after going down by a few scores – to dig in and hurt any mistakes we give them.
