This is a fascinating game.
On paper, in theory, on grass – this is arguably the game of the year with, perhaps, South Africa vs France as the other main event in a few weeks. I have sat down and thought about this upcoming game for weeks now and I can make a compelling argument for a dominant Irish win and a dominant Springbok win depending on how the vibes flow.
On paper, Ireland at our best are a terrible match-up for this Springbok side but, on the other hand, this Springbok pack and their base kicking game is an absolute nightmare for Ireland based on how we’ve stacked up with France as of late and how Leinster – who make up the bulk of this pack and front five – have stacked up against heavyweight, scrum-dominant French sides and Saracens over the last few years.
This isn’t just an Autumn Nations Series game or a “friendly” or just another match between two highly ranked sides. This has meaning far beyond that. Ireland haven’t played the Springboks since 2017 – an age ago – and so much has happened since. That Springboks side that Ireland beat out the gate would go on to win a World Cup two years later which we all know now, of course, but if you told someone that the 2019 World Cup winners were playing in that game five years ago, very few people would have guessed that you were talking about the Springboks.
But it all changed.
Rassie came on board in early 2018, they chased the sun, got their act together within two years and won it all. On the other hand, Ireland peaked a year later and ended the 2019 World Cup in a familiar fashion. Since that day in 2017, Ireland and South Africa have danced around each other. We’ve played the All Blacks six times since we last played South Africa, which is mad when you think about it. COVID played a part, of course, as did the Lions tour, but that’s all brought us to this weekend – the last time these two sides will meet before the World Cup group game in 2023 to decide who plays, in all likelihood, France in the quarter-final. Who do the Springboks play next weekend? France.
It’s all coming together. Ireland, France and South Africa will be sick of the sight of each other by the time 2023 is all said and done.
This game is an opportunity for both sides to stick a dagger deep into the guts of their World Cup pool nemesis and leave it there, festering and weeping, until this time next year when you’ll get a chance to finish the job. Or set the record straight. It’s going to be titanic one way or the other, so enough pre-amble – let’s get straight into it.
Springboks: 15. Cheslin Kolbe, 14. Kurt Lee Arendse, 13. Jesse Kriel, 12. Damian De Allende, 11. Makazole Mapimpi, 10. Damian Willemse, 9. Jaden Hendrikse; 1. Steven Kitshoff, 2. Malcolm Marx, 3. Frans Malherbe, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 5. Lood De Jager, 6. Siya Kolisi (c), 7. Pieter Steph Du Toit, 8. Jasper Wiese
Replacements: 16. Bongi Mbonambi, 17. Ox Nche, 18. Vincent Koch, 19. Franco Mostert, 20. Deon Fourie, 21. Kwagga Smith, 22. Faf De Klerk, 23. Willie Le Roux
This game will be decided by the scrum.
Both in the actual playing out of the scrum itself as a set piece, and how the threat of the scrum affects Ireland’s kicking game and encourages the Springbok’s kicking game in turn.
Ireland wants to avoid scrums, South Africa wants the opposite. Whoever gets their way here will probably win the game.
Why does Ireland want to avoid scrums?
All that paints one picture – that if Ireland endures 10+ scrums on either side of the put-in, this could turn ugly on the scoreboard, and quickly.
We actually have a really good map for how to approach this game against the Springboks by looking at how the All Blacks turned around a 16-point beating (that should have been much more) in one week to mark a 13-point win while under massive internal coaching pressure and external media pressure.
New Zealand are a middleweight side that Ireland were able to bully physically in the second and third test of the summer tour. How did they turn around the physical labour of playing a heavyweight side like the Springboks in one week? They took away the scrum platform, made their possession expensive and, essentially, forced the Springboks to go off script.
The 8-0 lead that the All Blacks took inside the first half an hour plus the try they scored right before the 35th minute really put the squeeze on the Springboks’ use of possession. When they were down by more than two scores on the scoreboard, their box-kicking game became less of an offensive tactic and more “surrendering” possession.
Look at the kicking stats across both games. In week 1, when the Springboks controlled the scoreboard and kicked 30 times compared to the All Blacks’ 16. In the second week when the All Blacks controlled the scoreboard, the Springboks only kicked the ball 23 times compared to 19 for the All Blacks.
The All Blacks’ control of the scoreboard changed the Springbok’s off-ball game to an on-ball one.
If I was to name one area where the Springboks are not elite at the moment, it would be in the quality of their multi-phase play. Like a lot of heavy kick-pressure teams, they struggle when in possession for long periods so if you can exert scoreboard pressure on them as the All Blacks did – essentially, make kicking the ball away more difficult for them, conceptually – then you can begin to draw them off scheme.
So all you have to do is just score 15 unanswered points inside the first half and make them chase the game. Easy!
What the Springboks want to do is kick to touch from inside their 22 or contestably from their Q2 to pressure you in the air on the tramlines in your Q2 and force an error or a choked transition under that high ball. Then you hand the ball back to them for a scrum, where they have a distinct advantage or you have to endure their outside blitz in your own Q2 if you choose to play ball there OR you’re kicking on their terms. It’s classic kick pressure.
In that first test against the All Blacks, the Springboks had 10 scrums on their put-in and won one of the All Blacks’ five. If they have a similar ratio here, they’ll win and win well.
In the second test, the Springboks only had four scrums. The All Blacks had five – and lost two of them against the head which is always a risk against this Bok pack – but I think there is a direct correlation between the All Blacks’ control of the scoreboard dragging the Springboks off-scheme (and kicking less) meaning fewer scrums.
You also have to factor in the difference in PPC across both games. In the first test, the All Blacks ran at a Pass Per Carry ratio of 1.64. That is insanely high. They got pieced up at the breakdown (90% completion rate) and conceded 17 turnovers.
They tightened up their game to a more easily sustainable 1.48 PPC – mainly offload-focused – in the second test and all of a sudden their turnovers went down to 11, their ruck retention rate went back up to 95% and the Springboks struggled to get a purchase on the All Blacks possession. The Springboks were kicking to the All Blacks but they weren’t getting it back and the All Blacks pack was far more narrow and breakdown focused than they had been the previous week. Crucially, when the All Blacks got the Springboks off their kick-pressure game, the Springboks’ PPC went to 1.44 (!) and their ruck completion rate went down to 91%.
If we switch to Ireland vs France in the Six Nations, we see a lot of similarities in approach.
We went kick for kick against France – 32 each – but had a PPC of 1.40 as we tried to challenge France’s defence but limit the width of our attack to ensure ruck continuity. Our error count of 18 plus a higher penalty count was the main difference between the sides that day but there are a lot of similarities in the approach for this week, I feel.
I think a winning Irish approach here has a PPC between 1.35 and 1.45 to challenge the Springboks’ heavy defence – and get at Jessie Kriel at the edge – but the main KPIs are dominating possession early, staying above 94% completion at the breakdown and being brave with early penalty opportunities.
But none of that will matter if we can’t keep the Springboks scrum out of the game.
