Wales always give me The Fear.
I don’t know why. Actually, that’s a lie – I do know why. In the mid-2000s, I was convinced that Ireland were going to win the Six Nations every single season. Two years, in particular, I was sure that that year would be Ireland’s year. 2005 and 2008. 2005 was a bit iffy, looking back on it, but I certainly didn’t see Warren Gatland’s Wales winning a Grand Slam that year. They did it as a matter of course. We hadn’t won a Slam since the 40s, and they just rocked up to knock over the England/France dominance of the late 90s/early 2000s like it was no big deal. They won the Slam on the last day of the tournament against us – walloped us, actually – and I remember thinking at the time just, like… HOW?
I was convinced we were better, man for man. I distinctly remember saying to my brother back then that Munster or Leinster would beat any of the Welsh teams these guys came from but we can’t beat those same guys combined in Cardiff? I didn’t get it.
In 2008, I was even more sure. Ireland’s pack and half-backs were Peak Munster – we’d go on to win the Heineken Cup again that year – but Ireland had the likes of O’Gara, O’Callaghan, Leamy, O’Driscoll, Kearney, Hayes, Horgan, and O’Connell at the peak of their powers before the Six Nations. We had a bad World Cup in late 2007 – we wished we got knocked out in the quarters of that one – but at the time it was seen as an aberration. Bad prep, a missed opportunity but an underperformance by a good team. The Six Nations was an opportunity to right the wrongs and, sure, we lost away to France in Round 2 but we had Wales and Scotland to come at home before playing England so the Championship was still on, as well as the Triple Crown.
We hammered Scotland in Croke Park, had Wales lined up next and… they beat us at home. We looked like shit in that game – Eddie O’Sullivan got the sack after the tournament – but I still didn’t get it. How are teams that Munster, Ulster and Leinster beating regularly beating us when it matters at test level??
In the 2011 World Cup, we landed Wales in the quarter-finals. I was sure that this time, without a southern hemisphere team in our way, we would get to a semi-fina… nope, they beat us again. And I still didn’t get it.
My mistake was always that I confused the players who played regional rugby for the guys who played for Wales. They were mostly two different guys entirely. Looking at any players who are wearing Welsh jerseys and assuming that you know all about them because you’ve seen them for Cardiff, Ospreys, Dragons, Scarlets or whoever misses the point entirely. Playing for Wales is different.
They will play with no fear. They will play with no respect. They will not concern themselves with “entertaining” anyone in the Aviva Stadium. They think we, as in the Irish Rugby Super Bubble, don’t rate them, don’t respect them and expect to slap them out of the way on our route to the Slam. The arrogance we often see in the All Blacks, they see in us except they also think that it’s unearned hubris.
They would love nothing more than to spoil it all for us.
That doesn’t mean they’ll win – I think Ireland will win – but I have long since given up dismissing Welsh teams full of guys who play on teams I’d expect Munster or Leinster to beat every day of the week.
I get it, finally.
Ireland: 15. Ciaran Frawley; 14. Calvin Nash, 13. Robbie Henshaw, 12. Bundee Aki, 11. James Lowe; 10. Jack Crowley, 9. Jamison Gibson-Park; 1. Andrew Porter, 2. Dan Sheehan, 3. Tadhg Furlong, 4. Joe McCarthy, 5. Tadhg Beirne, 6. Peter O’Mahony (c), 7. Josh Van Der Flier, 8. Caelan Doris
Replacements: 16. Ronan Kelleher, 17. Cian Healy, 18. Oli Jager, 19. James Ryan, 20. Ryan Baird, 21. Jack Conan, 22. Conor Murray, 23. Stuart McCloskey
Wales: 15. Cameron Winnett; 14. Josh Adams, 13. George North, 12. Nick Tompkins, 11. Rio Dyer; 10. Sam Costelow, 9. Tomos Williams; 1. Gareth Thomas, 2. Elliot Dee, 3. Keiron Assiratti, 4. Dafydd Jenkins (c), 5. Adam Beard, 6. Alex Mann, 7. Tommy Reffell, 8. Aaron Wainwright
Replacements: 16. Ryan Elias, 17. Corey Domachowski, 18. Dillon Lewis, 19. Will Rowlands, 20. Mackenzie Martin, 21. Kieran Hardy, 22. Ioan Lloyd, 23. Mason Grady
Everything about this Welsh team is about scrapping.
They scrap for the ball at the defensive breakdown, they try to rip you in contact and when they kick, they almost always kick contestable so they can scrap with you in the air.
They have the highest percentage of Up and Under kicks in the first two rounds of the Six Nations and the highest number of chips over the top of the defence. What does this tell us? They want to create the chaos that Rob Howley spoke about in the media this week. When they see Ireland’s centre-backfield being patrolled by someone who isn’t Hugo Keenan, do you think they’ll move away from this tactic? No. They won’t kick everything they get but you had better believe that Ireland’s backfield cover on the edges is going to get checked with high balls and skittering, angled chips over the top of our line speed – over McCarthy’s line in particular.
When Wales kick from their half, it most often looks like this – the angled contestable bomb to the edges.
They do this to create a functional isolation for Josh Adams against either Jack Crowley or Ciaran Frawley in the air. It depends on who is guarding the right side of Sam Costelow in that backfield. Unlike box kicks, these contestable bombs minimise the impact of the opposition’s escort but they also increase the chance of a clean break up the field if your chase unit or kicker gets it wrong.
That’s a dice that Wales will roll often. They box kick about as often as Ireland do these days – 13 total in two rounds, compared to Ireland’s 14 – and they will most often box kick on Rio Dyer’s side of the pitch to maximise his elite-level pace and tracking of the ball in the air.
This is a scenario that Wales will want to encourage quite often in this game and pay attention to the contest at the breakdown that followed;
That is going to be a key target for Wales in this game – the first breakdown after an isolating kick. When we look at their pack and midfield build for this game, we can get a good look at what their focus is going to be.
They have three defensive breakdown focus forwards in the pack – Dee, Wainwright and Reffell – with players well able to poach around them in Beard (a lot better at the defensive breakdown than his size might suggest) and Alex Mann. Their back five build is;
Two Stretch Heavy Fowards
Two Small Forwards – Strike Wing and Heavy
One Combo Flanker
In midfield, they have North and Tomkins who are scrappy in defence and Tomkins, in particular, is really strong at contesting edge breakdowns.
The build says, to me, that they’re going to set up to go after Ireland’s breakdown on transition and the first phase off the set piece. In Wainright, Dee and Reffell, in particular, Wales have constant threats over the ball. They don’t shoot up with too much line speed either – they prefer to keep defenders jockeying to almost soak up platform carries off #9, let the ruck pillars come off their feet and then apply a jackal threat.
This is a really good example of drawing a cleanout, even if it takes defensive numbers out of the line, to slow down the ruck. This is probably a Welsh penalty for England hanging on to the ball on the ground, in my opinion, but the ref didn’t agree.
Kick, compete on the drop, compete at the breakdown, slow the ball, steal the ball, win penalties.
Ireland have the second-worst ruck completion rate in the Six Nations so far. Wales have managed to slow the opposition’s ruck completion time to over five seconds, on average. Some of that is down to England’s desire to box-kick – a naturally slower outcome than regular phase play – but Wales compete hard high up the field and have weapons that can hurt us if we produce a game like we did against Italy at the breakdown.
If we can keep them from getting purchase at the breakdown, we’ll win quite handily. If it turns into a warzone where they bring us below 95% completion and win 6+ turnovers – trouble may well begin to brew.
