This is a game Ireland should win by 40+ points, and I think they will comfortably meet that mark.
On Saturday, an Irish XV will play Spain in the Butarque Stadium in Leganés. Spain are currently ranked 14th in the world. Japan, coached by Eddie Jones, are currently ranked 13th on those same world rankings. How accurate those rankings are, or what they can reveal about the quality of the side Ireland will face on Saturday, is up to you to decide.
Either way, this is not the Japanese side that shocked the world in 2019, or even the Japanese side that almost did the same in the summer of 2021 at the Aviva Stadium.
They are in a deep period of transition, something that always costs teams in that Tier 2/3 bubble more than most.
Beating them comfortably is expected — no, demanded. Losing to this version of Japan is borderline unthinkable, but that’s not put in there as a subtle rhetorical landmine; it’s just a fact.
Michael Leitch and Dylan Riley are the only players in Eddie Jones’ squad with more than 30 caps, so whatever we see from Japan this weekend, it’ll be with the 2027 World Cup firmly in mind.
Ireland: 15. Jamie Osborne; 14. Tommy O’Brien, 13. Tom Farrell, 12. Robbie Henshaw, 11. Jacob Stockdale; 10. Jack Crowley, 9. Craig Casey; 1. Andrew Porter, 2. Rónan Kelleher, 3. Thomas Clarkson; 4. James Ryan, 5. Tadhg Beirne, 6. Ryan Baird, 7. Nick Timoney, 8. Caelan Doris (c)
Replacements:16. Gus McCarthy, 17. Paddy McCarthy, 18. Finlay Bealham, 19. Cian Prendergast, 20. Jack Conan, 21. Caolin Blade, 22. Sam Prendergast, 23. Jimmy O’Brien
Japan: 15. Yoshitaka Yazaki; 14. Kippei Ishida, 13. Dylan Riley, 12. Charlie Lawrence, 11. Tomoki Osada; 10. Seungsin Lee, 9. Naoto Saito; 1. Kenta Kobayashi, 2. Kenji Sato, 3. Shuhei Takeuchi; 4. Epineri Uluiviti, 5. Warner Dearns; 6. Ben Gunter, 7. Kanji Shimokawa, 8. Faulua Makisi
Replacements: 16. Shodai Hirao, 17. Ryosuke Iwaihara, 18. Keijiro Tamefusa, 19. Jack Cornelson, 20. Michael Leitch, 21. Shinobu Fujiwara, 22. Shinya Komura, 23. Yuya Hirose
You can overthink a game like this really easily.
I don’t intend to do so here. Japan’s block to date basically screams “flat-track bullies, underpowered vs tier-one muscle.”
Let’s break it down.
Attack vs opposition quality
- Across all five: ~8.4 entries per game at 3.26 pts/entry; opponents 11 entries at 3.18 pts/entry. Looks pretty balanced… until you split it.
- vs SA/Aus/Fiji only:
- Japan: 6.7 entries, 2.17 pts/entry.
- Opponents: 14 entries, 2.83 pts/entry.
- They struggle to get into the 22 and are less efficient if and when they get there.
- vs Tonga/USA:
- Japan: 11 entries, 4.9 pts/entry.
- Opponents: 6.5 entries, 3.7 pts/entry.
| Split | JPN E/game | JPN Pts / Entry | JPN Rucks / E | JPN LBR / 100 rucks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 5 games | 8.4 | 3.6 | 9.6 | 6.7 |
| v SA/Aus/Fiji | 6.7 | 2.27 | 13.4 | 3.7 |
| v Tonga & USA | 11.0 | 4.81 | 6.1 | 12.6 |
| Split | Opp E/game | Opp Pts / Entry | Opp Rucks / E | Opp LBR / 100 rucks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 5 games | 11.0 | 3.14 | 8.7 | 5.2 |
| v SA/Aus/Fiji | 14.0 | 3.04 | 6.8 | 7.0 |
| v Tonga & USA | 6.5 | 3.45 | 14.8 | 2.6 |
Translation: Japan’s shape and handling punish loose defensive systems, or teams without an effective kicking game, but against a top-end defensive sides, they don’t generate enough high-quality entries. If Ireland are accurate on the defensive side of the ball, Japan’s attack will bend long before it forces any serious compressions.
Linebreak + ruck profile (how dangerous is the phase game?)
- Overall Japan average: ~7.2 linebreaks per 100 rucks; opposition ~5.8.
- Vs SA/Aus/Fiji: Japan ~3.7 LBs/100; opposition ~7.8.
- Vs Tonga/USA: Japan ~12.6 LBs/100; opposition ~2.8.
- They need a lot of rucks to manufacture entries against elite sides:
- Example: v SA they needed ~17 rucks per red-zone entry; SA needed ~4.
Translation: Dominate contact and slow their recycle effectively, and Japan’s multi-phase game turns into volume with no venom. If we lose collisions or spacing discipline, Japan’s handling is good enough to turn long sets into stress quickly, as Tonga/USA found out. But even regular defensive pressure should stymie them.
Kick/attack bias
- Japan are very ball-in-hand: roughly 7.3 passes per kick across the block, consistently higher than their opponents.
- Even under stress vs tier-one sides, they rarely shift to a territorial kick-battle; they keep playing. That’s what the numbers show, but I’d back them to kick a little more than often here.
- That gives Ireland a clear lever:
- Solid backfield + connected line, then punish with exits and contestables.
- Japan’s general reluctance to kick means more defensive reps for Ireland, but also more chances for steals, penalties, and long-range transition attacks through Stockdale, in particular. Guys like Timoney, Beirne and Doris could have a really big day over the ball defensively, but we don’t need to chase it either; solid tackle pressure and the turnovers will come.
Set piece: strong enough to launch, fragile under heat
- Scrum: ~94% overall.
- 100% vs SA, Aus, Fiji; drops into mid-80s vs Tonga/USA.
- Not an obvious pressure point for Ireland, but a stable ball means lots of first-phase shape; Ireland can’t assume cheap scrum wins. That said, this is the exact type of opponent that Porter can bully if they come at him with any kind of height in the scrum, so keep an eye out for that. They have gone with a very heavy starting back five — a three-lock pack averaging 120kg, so keep an eye out for that.
- Lineout: ~86% overall.
- ~82% vs SA/Aus/Fiji; up over 92% vs Tonga/USA.
- The drop vs tier-one suggests they’re vulnerable to aggressive contest and cluttered windows. They have their tallest lineout build for this game, but they are slow into the air — we need to get after them there.
- For Ireland: this is the primary set-piece squeeze. Full contest on touch, heavy pressure on tempo and drive defence; force them into off-top, low-threat ball.
- Lineout D (reading opponents’ numbers): Apart from the USA game, opponents are mostly mid-80s+ on their own throw.
- Japan aren’t consistently disruptive; We should expect a clean attacking ball if our mechanics are sharp.
I wouldn’t expect to be troubled too much by Japan’s set piece. They aren’t a massive mauling side, even with the heavy build they’ve gone with here. That, to me, seems like it’s more of a defensive maul counter-measure. Their lineout is as functional as it needs to be, for the most part. They scrummage really low, mostly, and will look to get a quick strike, channel one ball on their own put-in.
Restarts
- Japan retain about 78–79% of their own receipts, which is fine, but isn’t elite.
- Their opponents retain close to 89% of theirs, hinting Japan pose a limited threat when contesting restarts.
- For Ireland:
- Go after Japan’s first two restart receptions – you’re likely to pin them or force an early error. Get Tommy O’Brien on either their #8 or #12 on the back pin.
- On our own receipts, a clean platform is probable if we’re accurate; Japan haven’t shown a South Africa/NZ-style restart pressure game here.
What this should mean for Ireland’s plan
- Make it tier-one rugby from minute one. Collision focus, aggressive fold and a connected backfield. If Japan see the same defensive density they saw from SA, their numbers say they can’t live with it.
- Hammer their lineout. Contest everything outside our 10m line. Force them into lower-quality launches and starve them of the structured strike plays their attack needs.
- Lean into contestable kicking. Their high pass-bias and mediocre restart profile suggest they’re uncomfortable in a genuine aerial/territorial grind. Ireland’s kick pressure can both suffocate and manufacture short-field entries. In short, we can win the ball high up the field against these guys and punish them on scrambled turnovers.
- Be ruthless on turnover and transition. Japan’s multi-phase sets mean more rucks; Ireland’s jackals and counter-attackers should treat every long possession as an opportunity to flip field and cash out quickly. Look for an O’Brien or Stockdale intercept when they use a layered attack near the trams.
- Discipline and patience. Japan will look sharp when unpressured, but the data says that when forced to play 8–12 phases repeatedly against an organised tier-one defence, their efficiency collapses. We just have to keep them in that world until they fall away.
- Don’t give them chaos. Loose penalties, broken-field kicks and slow defensive spacing are the only things that drag this game into a Tonga/USA-style shootout, where Japan’s numbers spike.
Japan won’t be easily bullied — at least initially — but I think they’ll drop off pretty quickly if Ireland get any kind of tempo going with the ball in hand inside the first 20 minutes. They will tire when the heat comes on; we’ve just got to apply that heat early and often.
