It’s still a bit of a trip for me to think of Ireland and New Zealand being actual rivals.
For most of my adult life, New Zealand were the pinnacle of the game and the idea of Ireland beating them – never mind beating them three times in five games – was fever dream stuff. Yet here we are in the summer of 2022 talking about three- three! – Irish wins over New Zealand since we broke 111 years of history in 2016. It’s like that day in Chicago actually hammered home to us that New Zealand, the Mighty All Blacks, and the Best Team In The World were as mortal as you or I and that they did not have a divine right to always beat us no matter what we did.
But that status comes with a tax that we have to be willing to pay this Saturday. As I wrote in the aftermath of Ireland’s comprehensive win back in November;
In 2016, Ireland were a curiosity.
In 2018, Ireland were an annoyance.
In 2019 normality, as New Zealand have always known it, resumed but in 2021, Ireland produced a performance that will genuinely change perceptions for the next few years in the way that 2016 and 2018 didn’t.
We have to be ready for the ramifications that come with that.
But I genuinely think this Irish side are ready for that and more besides.
We’ll see how ready we are.
We got a sample of that tax the game after we beat New Zealand in Chicago in 2016 and we weren’t quite ready for it. The All Blacks were at their violent, bruising best and before even knew what hit us, Stander, Henshaw and Sexton were all forced off the field inside the first 25 minutes. The All Blacks won the violence that day and won the scoreboard afterwards.
After stewing on a defeat to a side they still feel is inferior to them for the last 8 months, I would expect the All Blacks to try and win the violence once again before looking to do it on the scoreboard too. How they intend to go about that outside of winning the violence – well, that’s where the fun really begins.
New Zealand: 15. Jordie Barrett, 14. Sevu Reece, 13. Rieko Ioane, 12. Quinn Tupaea, 11. Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10. Beauden Barrett, 9. Aaron Smith, 1. George Bower, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 4. Brodie Retallick, 5. Samuel Whitelock, 6. Scott Barrett, 7. Sam Cane, 8. Ardie Savea
Replacements: 16. Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17. Karl Tu’inukuafe, 18. Angus Ta’avao, 19. Pita Gus Sowakula, 20. Dalton Papalii, 21. Finlay Christie, 22. Richie Mo’unga, 23. Braydon Ennor
As I’ve been discussing over the last few months on these pages, the key to this test series will be how far Ireland can move beyond what the All Blacks think they know about our game and if that adaption helps us get better or makes us worse. This particular Ireland side has shown what works for us over the last year by mixing counter-transition rugby, a perfectly balanced fitness package, a rock-solid lineout and inside loop attacking structures ran by multiple handlers fuelled on lightning-quick ruck ball on an ever-resetting defensive line. Our top-down cohesion is another factor that can’t be ignored. The majority of this Irish side has been playing and training with each other every single week for the last two seasons and, as during the Six Nations, Andy Farrell has essentially started Leinster’s Champions Cup side with three Munster players slotting in where Leinster aren’t currently elite.
Second row, lineout dominant combo flanker, complete outside winger.
Tadhg Beirne is more of a half-lock build second row, to be fair, so I reckon Henderson would have started alongside James Ryan if not for injury but Beirne offers a lot of the same things Henderson does plus some things he doesn’t.
The argument you could make at the moment is that Leinster have been the best side in Europe – in theory – for the last year so that success mirrored Ireland’s success while using more or less the same players and system makes sense to continue. I would agree with that argument. If we’re talking about evolving from what worked last year up to a point before France, La Rochelle and the Bulls put a dampener on things, though, then we have to question some areas of selection as we progress.
If, for example, we’re looking to add to our lineout options, jackal threat and buff our power forward ball-carrying rotation, we should be seeing Gavin Coombes added to the Irish back five at the expense of Conan. If we’re looking to scale up our size in the pack this tour, we might look at Tadhg Beirne as a designated half-lock in the back row while looking at Kieran Treadwell or a reduced role Joe McCarthy alongside James Ryan in the second row, at least for one game. How realistically will we look at a decisive second playmaker system instead of the 1 + three half-playmakers we run at the moment? Will that require moving Keenan to a wing position while looking at Lowry or even Carbery at fullback? If we need to change our approach defensively, will we need to look at more jackal-focused players in the back row or will we ask the Leinster players we’ve already invested in to bring that into their game?
My point is, instead of looking at how we can retailor a Leinster-dominated starting XV into a different framework, will we instead look to other options who already province those options? That’s the big opportunity of this tour, for me.
If we’re intending on running Ireland 2021/22 plus a few tweaks during the next three tests, my fear is that New Zealand already have the answers to any questions we might pose to them.
As far as I’m concerned, Ireland have three critical markers that determine a losing performance.
- Ruck completion is under 95% regardless of the amount of quick ruck ball we generate.
That links directly to;
- Our possession is less than 50% of the total so our possession becomes expensive phase for phase and means we can’t kick to generate counter-transition events with the same freedom we would do normally.
That is then influenced by;
- The lineout is close to 80% completion when it needs to be 95% plus.
- Our scrum platform begins to wobble and become a penalty sink.
With these core points in mind, what does the All Blacks selection show us? That they get where they can hurt us and I believe that Scott Barrett is the key.
The last time New Zealand deployed Scott Barrett in the back row as part of a three-lock pack was in a losing effort against England in the 2019 World Cup so you can understand some of the skittishness out there about this selection. Scott Barrett has played in the back row for the Crusaders a few times since then, of course, but why would Ian Foster/Joe Schmidt look to repeat the trick?
Firstly, it allows New Zealand to play with a five-man launch in the lineout to get Ardie Savea into the midfield more often without compromising their possession. When we won back in November 2021, the All Blacks only had an 80% completion on their own throw so Scott Barrett added to their pack alongside Retallick and Whitelock gives them three comfortable primary jumpers, something they didn’t have in the last fixture. How much of this selection is down to losing Blackadder pre-tour? We won’t ever know that but when the All Blacks had a good idea that Beirne and O’Mahony would be starting for Ireland this past week, Barrett alongside their settled lock pairing would have given them a lot of security.
Barrett also gives them more height and wingspan on the Irish throw too, which could help them pull our completion level down to levels that we know hurt us.
The All Blacks will know how crucial the Irish lineout is to our success in the last year.
Leinster/Ireland’s counter-transition strategy is paired up with a hugely effective – and cohesion-dependent – lineout strike package as the core engine of Ireland’s game. When you look at the only mid-cycle coaching change that Andy Farrell has made to date – replacing Simon Easterby as the forward’s coach – I think it was primarily to do with Ireland’s relatively poor lineout work to that point.
“The lineout is important, actually” isn’t news to anyone reading this but one of the key factors to Ireland’s underperformance in the first year or so of Farrell’s tenure was below-par lineout work.
For me, anything below 95% at test level is leaving yourself exposed. A little too close for comfort win over Scotland at home in the 2020 Six Nations pre-shutdown saw our lineout run at 90% on 9 throws. Against England a few weeks later, our lineout ran at 88% on 14 throws and we ended up losing the game reasonably comprehensively. In the Autumn Nations Cup later that year, we lost to England (76% out of 13 throws) and France (82% on 14 throws). It undermined a lot of what we were trying to do and the Autumn Nations Cup loss to England felt like the game where Farrell understood that he had to make a change. Ireland’s lineout since then has been far simpler but it doesn’t need to be super complex, it just needs to retain possession and provide a launch point.
If you give Sexton clean launch possession with multiple options running off a maul feint, for example, then you will get over the gainline because Sexton does not make many mistakes when it comes to picking the right pass to the right guy at the right time. Scott Barrett gives the All Blacks the height and lineout chops to produce the kind of aerial traffic that the Bulls did against Leinster in the URC semi-final a few weeks back. Keep Ireland from mauling or maul feinting and you force Sexton into heavier traffic. Barrett can help do that in the air, stress Ireland in the middle of the lineout where we like to “punch” into a maul and/or use his extra bulk as a mauling counterweight to prevent the kind of rapid forward movement we use to milk penalties and momentum from the opposition.
Barrett will also be a focus for the All Blacks in the scrum on their tighthead side. Do not be shocked to see him packing down alongside Retallick behind Ofa Tu’ungafasi even if it means that the “openside” Sam Cane is technically out of position on the All Blacks put in. Greg Feek might be out with covid but you can bet that Andrew Porter’s issues in the scrum over the last six months will be a focus for the All Blacks. Scott Barrett adds series weight as part of a potentially very heavy All Blacks tighthead side.
The All Blacks hinted at that kind of pack build back in November with the selection of Dalton Papalii and Ethan Blackadder but selecting Scott Barrett doubles down on their combined qualities while also allowing them to play Sam Cane as a heavy wing forward and Ardie Savea as a strike wing forward with a big ball carrying output.
Will it be successful? We’ll know tomorrow morning.
