Leinster are currently trying to plan for the impending retirement of Johnny Sexton and, from experience, I can tell you that the flop sweat-inducing terror of replacing a generational talent can keep you up at night.

It is rarely as straightforward as “X will simply replace Y like for like, quality for quality, status for status”, even when you are sure you’ve got a guy lined up to do the job. Those generational talents and club veterans are never just a guy filling a shirt, despite the “next man up” stuff you hear from coaches all the time because they aren’t just what they produce on-field – it is their aura. They aren’t just about what they do today on the training paddock or at the weekend – although that is usually top class too – the generational veteran is their history. They are the things they have done in the past and that brings with it a level of respect that can’t be duplicated easily.

Sexton isn’t just his game against Harlequins at the weekend; he’s Croke Park in 2009, he’s the second-half performance in the 2011 final and he’s the Grand Slam and Heineken Cup winner in 2018 after coming back from France, and dozens more.

That respect is valuable because of the trust and performance it inspires. You’re not just taking a pass from any #10 – that’s a pass from Johnny Sexton. You’re going to underperform in a Leinster shirt around Sexton? That’s a primal fear for Leinster talent, be they academy players or seasoned professionals.

Munster saw this when it came time to replace Ronan O’Gara. Sure, Ian Keatley was a better athlete than O’Gara when he took over the #10 shirt but his major issue was that he wasn’t Ronan O’Gara. He didn’t have his stature or his aura and that stuff matters at the elite level. When the generational veteran is still productive on-field, the aura they exude can be a game-winner.

The key is to go right before the on-field performance turns sour.

Timing that exit is important because when the generational talent stays on a season too long, the aura buff can be inverted in line with the importance of the player to the overall scheme.

Replacing Sexton is for Leinster to worry about – until they try to bring Joey Carbery back to Dublin – but Munster are in the same boat when it comes to the impending job of replacing a generational talent of our own.

How can you even begin to replace Keith Earls?  

Keith Earls made his Munster debut in April 2007 at just 19 years of age and has been a key feature for Munster ever since. He’s the last bridge between the squad of today and the Heineken Cup-winning sides of 2006 and 2008. His longevity is remarkable in and of itself given he’s played most of his rugby on the wing, which has the highest washout rate in the elite game.

Think of how many hot wingers burst onto the scene like a shooting star only to be picked apart in the video room and taken apart just in time for the next hot young winger to start the process all over again. Wingers are the easiest position in the game to video to death because it’s comfortably the most difficult position to play at the elite level. It’s like doing Home Economics in the Leaving Cert. “Bake a few apple crumbles and make a stir fry, what’s the big deal?” you might say to yourself. Only when you’re actually in the class do you realise it’s got baking and cooking, yes, but it’s mostly a mix of science, construction, biology and a tonne of other stuff that wasn’t what you expected.

Playing on the wing is much the same. On the surface it’s all about finishing, making breaks and looking good on Instagram but underneath that superficial level, it’s your kick chase, your kicking game, your escorting, your work under the high ball defensively, your defensive positioning and your ability to make defensive reads on a play that decides how high you go.

That’s before your top-end pace, acceleration, lateral adjustment, power in contact and ball handling are weighed and measured to the highest standard.

All of these factors make playing on the wing as difficult as it gets in the modern game because there are so many things that can take you out.

Weak in the air under the high ball? The opposition have seen it and they’re going to bombard you with high balls until you’re taken off for your own good.

Unsure of yourself in the defensive scheme? The opposition have seen that and they are coming after you on a two-pass scheme where it’ll be incredibly clear who was to blame for the linebreak concession – just ask Jacob Stockdale and James Lowe about that one.

Your acceleration isn’t top class? The opposition know it and will try to catch you on the turn or by pulling you out of the line on a wide-wide phase if your positioning and read is off by even a metre. Expect even more of that in the 50/22 era.

If you’re lacking in any of these areas, you can be found out and if you get found out, you’re cooked at the highest level.

Keith Earls is like one of those gnarly old lions that show you how badass they are by the fact that they are still around. If Earls was not elite – and at the top end of that category – he’d have been washed out years ago but here he is at 33/34 as important to Munster and Ireland as he’s ever been.

Why? Because he’s top class under the high ball offensively and defensively, he’s excellent positionally on both sides of the ball, he’s an outstanding kick chaser and he’s as good a finisher as there is in the game, all while being as razor-sharp and as fast as ever. That’s before we talk about his offensive and defensive breakdown work, which is some of the best out there.

In a position that’s often defined by the mistakes you make, Earls has one of the lowest error rates in the game at the highest levels all while being analysed in ever excruciating detail for the last 14 years.

Wingers who are still doing it at the highest level at 34 are rarer than Bull Hayes TikTok dances.

After signing a one-year central contract extension last year, Earls is a Priority 1 replacement for me, despite still performing at a very high level. If he wants to stay on for another year after this season – which I don’t see, for whatever reason – then I’d try to get him on a cut-price veteran deal if possible to ease in the next generation, although that should start in earnest this season regardless.

Even then, Keith Earls 2021/22 is already taking place in a unique space before he even takes the field. He’s seven test caps away from reaching 100 caps for Ireland which, with a fair wind, he could achieve by the 2022 Six Nations. That will probably be an aim for him without knowing the guy personally. For Munster, I’d love to see him win a trophy this year but that could be said every year, to be fair. I’m not sure why I’m talking like this is definitely his last year because I don’t know if it is or not, it’s just that the older a winger gets – even one as elite as Keith Earls – the higher the likelihood that his performance levels dip dramatically or injury hits hard.

Player	Position	Age on Jan 1 2022	Grade	Contract Year in 2022?
Seán French	Winger	23	ASSESS 1	YES
Andrew Conway	Winger/Full Back	30	ASSESS 1	NO
Shane Daly	Winger/Full Back	25	SQUAD 2	NO
Liam Coombes	Winger	24	ASSESS 1	YES
Keith Earls	Winger	33	CORE 1/PRIORITY 1	YES
Calvin Nash	Winger	24	ASSESS 1	NO
Simon Zebo	Full Back/Winger	31	CORE 1 / PRIORITY 2	YES
Matt Gallagher	Full Back/Winger	24	ASSESS 1	YES
Mike Haley	Full Back	27	CORE 1	YES

You could argue that Munster have the deepest back three depth chart in the country with Earls, Conway, Zebo and Haley all adding high-quality senior options in theory.

I say “in theory” because there are a few question marks over the current performance levels of Andrew Conway at the highest level. There are reasons for that but he just hasn’t been the same player consistently since he returned from his two-month layoff after that home game against Harlequins in December 2020. Andrew Conway at his very best is a viper and makes a massive case to start regularly for Ireland, in my opinion. At that best level, he is almost as complete as Keith Earls, with a better quality of kicking to make up for the dip in breakdown effectiveness, if we were to compare directly.

His finishing, his defence, his aerial works on both sides of the ball, his aggression, his durability and power looping infield around the ruck and his apex predator focus mark him out from every other winger in the country bar Earls. When he came back from his layoff, all these qualities were still there, just not to the same level or arrayed completely week to week. The consecutive games he put together in the Rainbow Cup were hugely encouraging, however, where it seemed like the Bomber of old.

If Conway can’t fire back to the level that he’s capable of, Munster will have to think radically about his position on the chart sooner rather than later, which is why I have him listed as an ASSESS 1.

Conway is in the middle year of a three-season extension signed in 2019/20 so, even though he’s only 30, this is a big year for him from a depth chart perspective. Starting in the manner he finished the Rainbow Cup will be crucial, but I think he could be pushed quite hard by Calvin Nash, at least initially.

Nash seems to have had a really impressive pre-season but we’ll have to wait and see if that translates to the URC. Nash has been something of a longer-term project for Munster since arriving at the club through the academy in 2016/17, progressing to a developmental deal and then onto a succession of two-year senior contracts, the latest of which was announced in February of this year.

Still only 24, Munster saw enough in Nash to extend him by two years in a contract season where it would be easy to go on a one year “wait and see” option, given the young(er) options in the squad in that position. That is notable. Nash hasn’t blown the doors off any season to date but he’s been adding bits to his game every season. He’s good at the defensive breakdown, he’s got good hands, he runs good lines, he looks pretty decent positionally and he can finish. He’s also incredibly quick. That said, the two-year deal he has now should give him the confidence to produce the consistent top quality that he’s more than capable of.

Seán French is another interesting player in that he’s got the size (6’2″/99KG) to be an outside centre or even a power winger, but he just needs to earn consistent time on the field to show what he can do on a one-year senior contract. Liam Coombes and Shane Daly are arguably in a similar boat – although they have different contract expiry dates – in that they have the size to fill a power winger adjacent role set or get time as a strike running outside centre.

Coombes has seen time at outside centre in both preseason games – and did quite well – but it remains to be seen if he’ll see time there in the initial absence of Chris Farrell, or if he’ll continue on the wing. Shane Daly has played all of his senior rugby for Munster and Ireland on the wing and, after signing a two-year extension last season, he’ll be looking to build on a season that started well but ended with disjointed game time.

The same is true of Matt Gallagher, who enters the last year of a two year contract. His first year after joining from Saracens was hugely encouraging until a serious shoulder injury derailed his season almost completely. Gallagher was showing real potential up until that injury against Zebre right before the Champions Cup and he only played three games for the rest of the season.

He seems like a guy who could be on Saracens radar ahead of next season as they cement themselves again in the Gallagher Premiership, so how the early throes of the season go will be important from a minutes perspective, especially as a guy who could be relatively expensive to retain.

I’m still a little unsure where Simon Zebo fits ahead of the new season. Fullback or winger? Both? He’s plainly a guy with CORE 1 level talent who Munster will have on a very handy contract this season. He will score tries, that’s for certain, and will be looking to get a bigger deal negotiated by November/December that fits with his status.

I don’t think it really matters where he plays because any good attacking scheme will see him using his combination skills of carrying, multi-range passing, kicking and the kind of X-factor moments that Zebo is capable of. I want to see him linking with our young core of wingers/fullbacks early and often.

Mike Haley is the best defensive fullback in the country from a positional, aerial and actual stopping perspective, with an underrated kicking and passing game, all while having the capacity to score tries of his own. He signed a new two year deal last season and is comfortably CORE 1 level talent for me.

In the academy, there are currently only two outside backs, Conor Phillips and Jonathan Wren.

Player	Position	Age Jan 1 2021	Height	Current Weight	Projected Role Set
Conor Phillips	Winger	22	6'0"	92KG	Winger
Jonathan Wren	Winger/Full Back	22	5'11	88KG	Winger

Wren has been buckled with injuries since he joined the Munster academy, to the point that this is his fourth year given last year was ruined by hamstring issues. Unfortunately, he picked up a thigh injury in the Munster Challenge match in preseason so we’ll have to see how he recovers from that.

Conor Phillips knows all about injury issues. He came in late to the Munster academy due to a few injuries that stalled his progress but he’s an explosive finisher with real potential if he can stay fit this season.

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My final depth chart of the season will look at the coaching group.