Succession planning at test level is infinitely more difficult than the same job at club level. At club level, gaps in your chains of succession can be filled by signing players in from abroad, or other clubs, to start for you almost immediately. A good example of this would be Munster transitioning from John Hayes in the early 2010s to BJ Botha, a World Cup-winning Springbok we signed from Ulster, once we realised that Tony Buckley wasn’t working out to the level we needed at the time.
There are dozens of other examples throughout the provinces of this kind of “gap” signing when there is no immediate successor. At test level, you can’t really do that. For a while there, project players were a facsimile of that process – albeit with a three-year timer – but with that avenue essentially closed off now, the pressure has come back on longer-term development. Switching allegiances via the three-year non-selection method is another possible option but you have no control over it and it requires a pre-existing familial or birth connection.
Australia, for example, might well look at Mack Hansen as someone who can fix a few of their problems in the back three at test level but that would require Andy Farrell deliberately not selecting him for three years straight and, the minute he plays one second of rugby for Ireland in that time, the three-year timer starts again at zero.
You cannot plan for a player like this – they either appear as a bonus, or not at all. A good example of this would be Dan Kelly of Leicester and England. He was a core member of the same Ireland u20 team that Jack Crowley starred in but he’s currently an English international, thanks to a solitary cap he won under Eddie Jones in July 2021.
In July 2024 – this coming summer – he will be eligible to switch to Ireland if he so chooses, and if the IRFU want him, but that’s not a midfield depth chart move that Ireland could plan for so there’s no way they should appear on any long term planning. Think of it like finding a twenty euro note in an old coat that you forgot was there. It’s nice when it happens but I wouldn’t be relying on your other coat pockets when the electricity bill is due, let’s put it like that.
In the front row, Ireland, along with everyone else, is looking for those rare props and hookers that are physical difference-makers at test level. Outside of lock, this is the hardest place in the game to either find or develop elite options at the top end of the game. Sometimes you can convince yourselves that producing an Andrew Porter, John Hayes or Tadhg Furlong every few years is something you can just do with effort when, in reality, it has more to do with luck than anyone is comfortable with.
Keeping that in mind, Ireland have done quite well when it comes to IQ imports in the last decade. Rob Herring and Finlay Bealham are wildly successful pickups when you consider how rare it is to find unheralded guys at test calibre outside of your system but the real value is in producing players internally and that’s where Leinster, in particular, have excelled in bringing players through in the last six or seven years.
It’s important to recognise that. Firstly, because it’s not easy and secondly because there’s absolutely nothing to suggest that it will keep happening other than assuming that the large numbers in their underage systems help you roll out elite props and hookers and then you have the luck to avoid them getting broken by injury early so it needs to be appreciated for what it is – a massive achievement.
Hooker
The first position on our succession chart is Hooker and it’s by far the position with the most options nationally. First, let’s assess our rating system so you know where I’m putting guys on this chart.
- CORE 1: A vitally important player who will likely be on a central contract
- CORE 2: An important senior player who will likely make squads as a starter or replacement in elite games.
- SQUAD 1: A player who can slot in for one of the CORE 1/2 players if they are injured and can be a match day 23 player for lower tier games as a starter or replacement.
- SQUAD 2: A player who makes wider squads but who is an intermittent option in the match day 23 regardless of opposition.
- SQUAD 3: Not currently in the squad but has been in the relatively recent past and offers depth outside the immediate training bubble.
- POSSIBLE 4: A player who hasn’t been in camp yet who isn’t a current foundation-level talent but who might make a run at the squad in a season or so.
- FOUNDATION 1: A young player – under 25 – who can become a CORE 1 player.
- FOUNDATION 2: A player expected to top out around CORE 2 or SQUAD 1 level.
- PRIORITY 1/2/3: A player who needs to be cycled out inside one year (most pressing), two years (wiggle room) and three years (ageing but not a pressing matter).
| Tier | Name | Squad Status |
|---|---|---|
| A | Dan Sheehan | CORE 1 |
| A | Ronan Kelleher | CORE 2 |
| B | Tom Stewart | FOUNDATION 2 |
| C | Rob Herring | SQUAD 3 / PRIORITY 1 |
| D | Dave Heffernan | SQUAD 3 |
| D | Niall Scannell | SQUAD 3 |
| D | Diarmuid Barron | POSSIBLE 4 |
| D | Dylan Tierney Martin | POSSIBLE 4 |
For clarity’s sake, I haven’t included academy players in this chart as we usually don’t know all that much about them as players at this stage unless they have a massive body of work under their belt in a given season.
In Dan Sheehan and Ronan Kelleher, Ireland have a hooker combo that is the envy of every nation, bar maybe South Africa. Sheehan, in particular, looks a shoo-in for a central contract this season and he’s easily a top-three hooker globally.
On Sheehan, I wrote this about him in my Derailing The Big East series back in 2020.
Kelleher seems to have the pace and mobility to fill a role similar to Cronin and, in Dan Sheehan, Leinster have a guy with the potential to be a top-end heavy hooker (6’3″ and 110kg) who can really up the power for them off the bench or by starting and setting the table for Kelleher in the second half.
Certain elements of Sheehan’s game as a senior professional are a question mark because we just don’t know what he looks like in that environment against other full professionals as of yet but he’s got all the physical traits you’d look for.
Those traits, along with what Leinster will have seen of Sheehan playing A rugby, AIL and in training, were enough to convince them to offer him a senior deal in the second year of his academy stint. He will not have been short of offers from elsewhere, let’s put it like that.
He has gone from a guy that almost left the Leinster system to a guy that the union itself would move heaven and earth to keep in the country. The one concern – that his height hinders Andrew Porter’s scrummaging – is a niche issue that warrants mention but not too much worry.
When you combine him with Ronan Kelleher, a destructive and incredibly physical tight carrier and defender – if not a slight downgrade at the lineout – Ireland have a one-two punch that stacks up anywhere against anyone.
Tom Stewart is in the somewhat unfortunate position of being the third guy behind them when he’s likely to be at least part of the A duo for Wales and Scotland, were he qualified. I still feel he has elements of his game to work on – lineout consistency, scrummaging – but his work around the field is really good and I think he’s a mid-term development prospect nationally.
The other guys on that list offer experienced depth in case of an injury crisis with Barron and Tierney-Martin as players of interest in the mid-term as all-rounders.
Tighthead
Tighthead used to be the scariest depth chart in the country back in the early 2010s. People would look at it and their hair would turn white – it was “pick the wrong cup in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade” stuff – but the turnaround is almost all down to the emergence of one player; Tadhg Furlong.
Since Furlong’s emergence and relative durability, Ireland’s tighthead chart has been anchored with genuine world-class, elite-level talent.
He’s been backed up in that time by quality operators like Andrew Porter (before the switch), John Ryan and, currently, Finlay Bealham who has turned into a more than capable test-level tighthead as he entered his late 20s and early 30s. As is stands, it’s an excellent starting rotation.
The only issue is that both men are entering their mid-30s in a position that is no longer kind to players in that age bracket at this level. Furlong will be 32 this year and Bealham will be 33. Neither are immediate concerns barring a freak injury but there is an ever-increasing need to scale up O’Toole with more minutes and to get Jager capped; to lock him to Ireland, firstly, but mainly to see if he can be the Furlong role twin that he looks like at club level.
After that, things start to get a little scary. I would still rate Marty Moore and Cian Healy as potential cover guys in a pinch but that’s mainly because of the lack of obvious options below the main guys at provincial level. Guys like Thomas Clarkson at Leinster haven’t stepped up after an encouraging u20s stint (although there is still time for him, albeit with the ticking clock of Italian qualification in the background), but you also have guys like Keynan Knox not working out as a test calibre player either. Both would have been expected to be further along at this stage but that’s the usual reality with tightheads – it normally does take players until their mid to late 20s to pull it all together physically.
Roman Salanoa is a guy I think Ireland is interested in but his knee injury this season will have knocked him back into the maybe pile after a great 2022/23 where he looked like a 30-minute power guy with real potential.
There are a bunch of younger players in the provinces who all have something about them – or they wouldn’t be there – but it’s unclear who, if any, has the potential to jump up to test level. I like the look of Scott Wilson at Ulster and Fiachna Barrett, as well as lads like Ronan Foxe (another u20 standout) and the recent AIL work I’ve seen of Darragh McSweeney. But, like with most things in propping, we’ll have to wait and see while hoping we have no unplanned depth chart shake-ups.
Loosehead
Our #1 jersey is one of cast iron certainty and then miles and miles of anxiety.
Andrew Porter is, by some distance, the main man in this depth chart. In the modern game, he’s a top-three forward in the world. His offensive and defensive rucking, latching, brick wall tackling, lineout lifting, mauling and really decent handling. The scrummaging is an issue, despite the protests, but genuinely – after a mid-20s switch back to loosehead from tighthead it’s a miracle Porter isn’t a total washout here. It’s a testament to his freakish strength and work rate, as well as his near-constant availability and capacity to play 80 minutes regularly.
Porter’s quality is so good and emerged so early that I think he’s distorted expectations nationally for what young props should be capable of, loosehead or tighthead. He is as CORE 1 as CORE 1 can be.
His current primary alternate is Cian Healy, who will be 37 later this year. Healy is still a very capable alternate for Porter and while he still looks like he’s got gas in the tank, the engine can run very quickly once you’re into the late 30s. Yes, even for a prop as gnarled and hardy as Cian Healy. With all the will in the world, he’s probably got one season left as an elite option at this level so he’s a PRIORITY 1 replacement.
And that’s where things start to get hairy.
The next guy in line would appear to be Jeremy Loughman, who’s grown into a very decent prop for Munster in the last two seasons. He’s a really good example of props improving as they age, actually, as when he first joined Munster it didn’t really look like there was an international player there at all.
He’s the #1 guy at Munster without question and will be hoping to add scrummaging stability to his build at test level while using his pretty hefty 118KG frame around the field. He is unproven, however, and will need to start showing that he can alternate for Porter sooner rather than later.
Now we’re into the really hairy stage.
After Loughman, the next most likely cover guy at this point is Finlay Bealham switching across to loosehead for a game off the bench. Dave Kilcoyne is out of contract at Munster this season and rehabbing a pretty serious shoulder injury at 35 years of age. Will he still be at Munster next season? Will he still be in Ireland? Will he still be playing? We don’t know. Leinster’s Ed Byrne is probably the next guy they’d call on in a pinch.
After those guys, it’s a world of Maybes to the point where we need to start looking into academies and way down the depth chart.
Will Jack Boyle and Paddy McCarthy work out as passable scrummagers at senior level? Maybe. We don’t know. I can see Leinster moving McCarthy back to tighthead to prevent losing one of McCarthy or Boyle in the next two seasons. Michael Milne is another Leinster player with a good recent resume as a depth guy but probably needs to move to establish his test credentials. At Munster, George Hadden has real potential as a talented scrummager but it’ll be next year before we see him get pro minutes. Josh Wycherley looked like a foundational player at both Munster and Ireland a few years ago but his progress has stalled in the last few years as it seems he’s hit a physical plateau. If he can’t move beyond that, he’ll struggle to get capped.
At Ulster, you have Eric O’Sullivan with a solitary Ireland cap but beyond that… I’ll put it like this, they were given dispensation to sign Stephen Kitshoff for a reason.
| Tier | Name | Squad Status |
|---|---|---|
| A | Tadhg Furlong | CORE 1 / PRIORITY 3 |
| B | Finlay Bealham | CORE 2 / PRIORITY 2 |
| C | Tom O'Toole | FOUNDATION 2 |
| C | Oli Jager | FOUNDATION 2 |
| D | Marty Moore | SQUAD 3 |
| E | Cian Healy | SQUAD 3 |
Loosehead is one of the few spots in this Irish set up where there isn’t a boiling dog fight for position down the depth chart. In other positions, like lock and backrow, you have emergent options and different rolesets vying for attention. At loosehead, you have a (rightfully) untouchable starting incumbent, an ageing alternate and then unproven options the further down the chain we go.
It’s the one area of the system where I have real concerns over in the medium term. Imagine this – an Andrew Porter injury that keeps him out for a year. Imagine the carnage that would cause this Irish front five? Once you visualise that panic, you can see the need for options to emerge beneath him – and soon.
