The absence of Sean O’Brien for the opening rounds of this season’s Six Nations presents a few issues ahead of Paris for Joe Schmidt.
O’Brien’s carrying profile solves a lot of problems for Schmidt and makes the selection of the “complementary” roles in the pack quite straightforward. O’Brien’s injury doesn’t just rob Ireland of a world-class flanker it also means that we’ll have to adjust the template that took apart South Africa. As I said yesterday, South Africa map quite closely with what I expect from France, especially in the pack so having to tweak our profile to cover for O’Brien’s absence is a real pain in the ass.
Let’s get the back five in first;
8: CJ Stander
This is close to a no-brainer. Stander’s all-around game, durability and 80-minute cardio on both sides of the ball make him the perfect choice for this game as our Primary Ball Carrier. His expanded passing game and ability to carry in close quarters, midfield and in broken phase mark him out as being the elite #8 in the group at the moment. Expect to see him topping Ireland’s carrying charts.
7: Josh Van Der Flier
If you can’t play O’Brien, you have to spread his roles out amongst the rest of the pack. Van Der Flier won’t carry the ball like O’Brien but he’ll give you the kind of defensive mobility that’ll free up others. I’ve gone for Van Der Flier over Leavy because I think Van Der Flier is more mobile in defence, a better lineout option and is a more dynamic in the wider channels and in support.
6: Peter O’Mahony
O’Brien being out means O’Mahony will take up a slightly narrower role in open play. Normally he defends and carries in the wider channels for Joe Schmidt to keep him focused on his lineout work. I think we’ll see him come a little closer to the middle of the pitch in defence and perhaps carry the ball a little more than normal – that said his main work will be on attacking ruck.
Expect the same lineout excellence on both sides of the throw. O’Mahony is the best backrow lineout operator in Europe at the moment and I expect him to prove it again here against a French side that’ll be extremely vulnerable to getting picked off on their own throw.
5: Devin Toner
Big Dev is one of the first names on the teamsheet and for good reason. He’s not the best ball carrier – no shock to anyone – but his work around the ruck and close-in defence is consistently high level and consistent these days, and that’s before we get to his obvious strengths in the lineout.
I’d expect to see him packing down on the tighthead side behind Furlong and taking up his usual middle position on defensive lineouts.
4: James Ryan
I’ve been going over and over this one. I think Schmidt is going to go with Ryan for this game. On the one hand, Henderson has a good recent track record with Ireland but, on the other hand, he hasn’t had a fantastic last couple of months from a personal performance perspective in the second row for Ulster. Ryan has been playing consistently well for Leinster and has slotted in well against Montpellier a few times already this season.
Plus I think Ryan’s basics are better than Henderson’s right now. Against a French side that’s likely to be very big and very direct early on, I’d have Ryan in at #4 ahead of Henderson with Henderson coming off the bench for a dynamic jolt on 55/60 minutes.
This is the pick I’m least confident of but I think Schmidt goes for the bigger guy with the stronger tight game to start.
3: Tadhg Furlong
Another no-brainer. Furlong is the best tighthead on the planet for my money but he’s got a bit of a point to prove in Paris after his last outing there. I’d expect to see Furlong on the ball a little more than usual, especially if Ireland end up with a lot of early possession in both halves.
2: Rory Best (c)
Rory is the boss. Expect him to bring the usual; generally excellent darts, great scrummaging and ultra-physical work at the breakdown on either side of the ball.
1: Cian Healy
If O’Brien isn’t starting, then Healy will. Schmidt likes to have a few go-to guys for go-forward ball and in Stander and Healy, he’s got two of the best around. Throw in excellent scrummaging and lifting basics and you’ve got no reason not to start Healy at loosehead.
16: Sean Cronin
Cronin gives you the exact opposite to Rory Best – a little looser in the lineout, a little weaker in the scrum but he’s an absolute firecracker with the ball in his hands in space. The perfect man to spring into a second half after 55/60 minutes of close quarters combat.
17: Jack McGrath
The battle between McGrath and Kilcoyne (and maybe Cronin) is closer than most would imagine but, as Killer is out, McGrath gets the nod here.
18: John Ryan
Ryan’s scrummaging and basics will get him the nod here. He’s performed really strongly as a second-half “finisher” (I’m rolling my eyes too) over the last few months and ideal, y he’ll see the last 15/20 minutes of this one with little or no fuss.
19: Ian Henderson
I think Schmidt will select Henderson on the bench. He doesn’t have the tight grunt that Ryan does but he does have the kind of dynamism that can smash this game open in the second half. Having Henderson on the bench gives Schmidt fresh carrying options over 80 minutes and a reliable, high calibre guy to see out the game.
20: Jack Conan
This is a tough one. Do you pick Leavy for his power over the ball and in the tight exchanges? Or go for Conan’s ability with the ball in hand and as a blunt force tackler? I think Schmidt goes for Conan. He covers 6/8 to a high level if O’Mahony/Stander go off and he’s in excellent form provincially.
Here’s the full selection I think Schmidt’s going to go with;
Attempted Schmidt Mind Read XXIII for France;
15: Rob Kearney, 14: Keith Earls, 13: Robbie Henshaw, 12: Bundee Aki, 11: Jacob Stockdale, 10: Jonny Sexton, 9: Conor Murray;
1: Cian Healy, 2: Rory Best (c), 3: Tadhg Furlong, 4: James Ryan, 5: Devin Toner, 6: Peter O’Mahony, 7: Josh Van Der Flier, 8: CJ Stander
Replacements: 16: Sean Cronin, 17: Jack McGrath, 18: John Ryan, 19: Ian Henderson, 20: Jack Conan
