Great Expectations

You cannot be two different things at once.

People have an impression of what I write about on these pages and it doesn’t fit with reality.

They assume that because I’m primarily a Munster fan site that everything in here is crawling praise of every Munster player in the squad who, they think, I think are all world-class operators.

Anyone who’s been here for longer than a week knows that isn’t true. At the moment, I think Munster have only one current World Class player in our squad and that’s Tadhg Beirne. My expectations of him as a performer are in that context. What do I mean by World Class? Well, imagine Earth had to play an alien invader in a game of rugby with the fate of the world in the balance – Rugby Space Jam, basically – anyone who would be in the match day 23 or the extended 25-man squad for that game is a World Class player.

We have guys who were in that bracket up until relatively recently. RG Snyman (pre-injury) was absolutely in that class of player before his injury and we wait to see how he looks after it, Malakai Fekitoa was in that discussion at one point in his career, and Conor Murray was world-class calibre between 2014 and 2018 with elite-level production either side of that window. I think Peter O’Mahony was capable of that World Class level from his return post ACL injury in 2017 to mid-2022 in his role but, for me, I think it’s harder to judge a Combo Flanker on those World Class terms given how system dependent they are.

I think Keith Earls floated in and around the elite level – just below World Class – for the guts of the last decade and guys like Carbery had a glimpse at that level for a few months in 2019 but that would be it. We have a number of young players who are in the discussion for having the capacity to reach that Elite or World Class level in a few years if they deliver on their potential.

My read of the team’s quality determines my expectations for them. This year, my expectations for Munster were to win your home European games, get to the Champions Cup knockouts and, ideally, make the last 16 while making the top 7 of the URC for a playoff run.

Expectations for trophies this year were; it’d be great but, realistically, we’d be doing well to get back to the Trophy Gatekeeper Level we’d been for the previous seasons, given the mass change in coaching before the season started and the continued unavailability of level changers like Snyman.

At the end of last season, I wrote in my Anatomy of a Season article that Munster needed to;

…address core elements of our game – not just our attack, but the entire ecosystem of how we play, how we train and how we condition ourselves for rugby in 2022. Do we need to be a side that goes 60/20 on our pack replacements? Do we need to get an hour out of our props, for example? Would we be better off going with heavier units for 50/30? That kind of decision can only be made with a game plan that focuses on decisive attacking and kicking philosophies very early on.

And I also labelled the three years of Van Graan and Larkham as a failure in plain terms. They were backed with time, with NIQ signings and, sure, there were injuries but it ended without a trophy and the worst seasonal finish in years.

My expectations for Ireland could not be more different.

Ireland have been consistently ranked in the top four of the World Rugby rankings for the last few years post-Schmidt and currently sit top of the World Rankings ahead of the Six Nations after a two-year spell from the 14th of February 2021 where we’ve only lost to three sides – France (twice), Wales (once) and New Zealand (once). Four losses in two years with only one of those being at home means you are a serious side. Beating New Zealand in New Zealand on a three-test series and then beating South Africa AND Australia in the same season that you also clapped England in Twickenham means you are an elite side.

What do elite sides do? They win trophies.

That’s the one thing missing from Andy Farrell’s resume. He has something that only a few other coaches in the history of this sport have – a series win over New Zealand – but the only one trophy to Ireland’s name during his tenure is the Triple Crown won last year, something Irish rugby was sick to death of in 2007. Fun fact – Ireland have the most Triple Crown wins in the Six Nations era, one more than Wales and England. Wales have five Triple Crowns and four Grand Slams, to give you an idea of how effective they were at winning five games in a row under Gatland and that one time under Pivac.

The praise for Ireland’s style of play has never been more effusive in the general media and the rugby bubble at large so where are the trophies? Joe Schmidt regularly took pelters for his style of play but he had three Six Nations titles and one Grand Slam to his name by the time his seven years were up. We’re into Farrell’s fourth year but we’re still waiting for that proper trophy.

You might think that lifting the Steinlager Cup last July when we beat the All Blacks but that only really counts as a proper trophy if you include it in a signifier of a rare achievement. It certainly is that but I think the validity of that achievement rests on how you rate the current crop of All Blacks and for me, they are the worst group we’ve seen in 25 years. That won’t always be true, but it was true in 2022, at least in my opinion.

So what does that mean? I look at this Ireland side and I see a tonne of elite-level and World Class players, both who ARE and who we are told are in that bracket. Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, Tadhg Beirne, Josh Van Der Flier, Caelan Doris, Johnny Sexton, Garry Ringrose, Hugo Keenan – all World Class or close enough to it to be splitting hairs. They are augmented by a group of elite-level players and system fits that are more than capable of producing high-level performances.

My expectation for that team is that they win a Grand Slam this year and then go unbeaten in 2023 to win the World Cup for the first time. Anything else, for me, is a failure with the one asterisk being injuries to two or more of our current irreplaceable’s – Porter, Sheehan, Furlong, Beirne or Sexton.

Why shouldn’t we expect that? If winning a series in New Zealand means what we’d like it to then the natural extension of that is beating Wales, finally beating France at home where we’ve only lost once in the last two test seasons and then going on to finish the job. If we can’t manage that, then questions will need to be asked of the players, of the selections, of the coaching, of everything. If the World Cup is the only proving ground that matters this year – which I don’t agree with, but let’s go with it – failure there should lead to a bigger inquest because of the length of the build up. Every ounce of hype and praise owes a debt to the Gods of Deliverance and it’s time for this Irish group to pay up.

I genuinely believe they can do it and, even better, that they should do it. Winning a Slam and then a World Cup would be a game changer for rugby in this country. It’s the level changer you can’t buy and isn’t a rising tide that lifts all boats – it’s a tsunami that changes the landscape of the game in this country.

The Six Nations is the perfect breeding ground for World Cup performance. Small windows of games week to week, dealing with injuries, adapting to change, huge pressure, elite opposition – that’s a World Cup. If you can go unbeaten in Spring, you can do it in the Autumn in France.

So win a Slam now and let the World Cup take care of itself. That comes with pressure and anxiety which is a different vibe than we’re used to. Embrace it. Ramp up that pressure. If it works? Vindication. If it doesn’t? Examination.  There can be no repeat of last year’s Champions Cup final where Leinster pundits were taking up Leinster as red-hot favourites before the game but then stayed absolutely stoney silent when they couldn’t get the job done with just a few seconds left on the clock.

If we’re as World Class as we think we are, 2023 should be the year Ireland win it all.  Why shouldn’t we demand trophies as a rugby bubble in this country? This isn’t a team in transition, this is a team in Win Now mode since 2021 with a 37-year-old Johnny Sexton still running the show on and off the field.

So let’s Win Now.