[su_dropcap style=”flat” size=”4″]B[/su_dropcap]uilding from a position of strength has been a consistent feature in Leinster’s development over the last few seasons and their contracting work over the last few months as revealed last week would appear to hint that they’re attempting to do the same.
In revealing 28 senior contracts last week, Leinster gave us an idea of their succession plans in a few key areas of their squad. This kind of mass retention has been a consistent feature of Leinster’s building over the last few seasons. It’s a reflection of both the quality and quantity of talent being produced from their academy but it’s also a unique challenge that few other clubs in the Northern Hemisphere have to deal with.
When you have a roster as deep as Leinster, with the genuine ability to field three different starting XVs with very little personnel crossover, the pull from outside sources – both in Ireland and elsewhere – is a constant threat. If you look at Leinster’s squad and think “that player could probably start elsewhere”, believe me, there are Directors of Rugby thinking the same from all over the island of Ireland, the UK and France.
This mass retention, for a time at least, has nailed down a few key areas of their depth chart and gives Leo Cullen and Stuart Lancaster some breathing room as they resettle their charts heading into the next cycle.
[su_row][su_column size=”1/2″ center=”no” class=””]1. Vakh Abdaladze LHP
2. Ryan Baird L/F
3. Michael Bent THP
4. Adam Byrne W
5. Ed Byrne H
6. Harry Byrne FH
7. Ross Byrne FH
8. Will Connors FL
9. Seán Cronin H
10. Peter Dooley LHP
11. Caelan Doris 8/F
12. Jack Dunne L
13. Scott Fardy L/F
14. Jordan Larmour FB/W[/su_column] [su_column size=”1/2″ center=”no” class=””]15. Dan Leavy F
16. James Lowe W
17. Ross Molony L
18. Josh Murphy L/F
19. Tommy O’Brien C
20. Rory O’Loughlin C
21. Rowan Osborne SH
22. Andrew Porter THP
23. Rhys Ruddock F/L
24. James Ryan L
25. Dan Sheehan H
26. Devin Toner L
27. James Tracy H
28. Josh van der Flier F[/su_column][/su_row]
There are a few names there that stand out to me on this list. First, the likely one year extensions – Toner and Fardy – are quality stop-gap players for Leinster as their coaching group assess what their options at tighthead lock and blindside flanker are going to be going forward. I think in the long-term that Leinster will want to pair Ryan – a Foundational and CORE 1 player – with a heavier framed, work-rate based tighthead lock to maximise what James Ryan gives you around the field in phase play. Whether that will be a player already in the Leinster system, someone from outside, or even James Ryan himself remains to be seen but Leinster will have time to make that decision over the next season with Fardy and Toner providing experienced, varied role coverage in the Leinster pack.
James Ryan certainly has the physical characteristics to play tighthead lock but anytime I see a player with his underage injury record scaling up the KGs from a position where he’s already quite effective, I worry about the risk it poses to his effectiveness and availability long term. Hopefully, it won’t be an issue because if Ryan can scale up to 117kg+ in the next few years he could end up being the answer to a key question for Leinster going forward.
If we slot all of those retentions and academy promotions into the squad as it currently stands, we get a squad that looks roughly like this over all of the primary positions. I’ve sorted each position into rough depth charts based on my assessment of the players I’ve watched more than twice over the last season.
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Loosehead Prop
1. Cian Healy
2. Peter Dooley
3. Ed Byrne
4. Vakh Abdaladze
5. Michael Milne (A)
Tighthead Prop
1. Tadhg Furlong
2. Andrew Porter
3. Michael Bent
4. Tom Clarkson (A)
Hooker
1. Rónan Kelleher
2. Seán Cronin
3. James Tracy
4. Dan Sheehan
Lock
1. James Ryan
2. Devin Toner
3. Ross Molony
4. Jack Dunne
5. Charlie Ryan (A)
Lock/Blindside Hybrid
1. Scott Fardy
2. Rhys Ruddock
3. Ryan Baird
4. Josh Murphy
5. Brian Deeny
[/su_column] [su_column size=”1/3″ center=”no” class=””]
Flanker
1. Dan Leavy
2. Josh Van Der Flier
3. Will Connors
4. Scott Penny
5. Martin Moloney (A)
#8
1. Jack Conan
2. Caelan Doris
3. Max Deegan
Scrum-Half
1. Luke McGrath
2. Jamison Gibson-Park
3. Rowan Osborne
4. Hugh O’Sullivan
5. Paddy Patterson (A)
Fly-Half
1. Jonathan Sexton
2. Ross Byrne
3. Ciarán Frawley
4. Harry Byrne
[/su_column] [su_column size=”1/3″ center=”no” class=””]
Inside Centre
1. Robbie Henshaw
2. Conor O’Brien
3. David Hawkshaw (A)
Outside Centre
1. Garry Ringrose
2. Rory O’Loughlin
3. Jimmy O’Brien
4. Tommy O’Brien
Left-Wing
1. James Lowe
2. Adam Byrne
3. Aaron O’Sullivan (A)
Right-Wing
1. Dave Kearney
2. Cian Kelleher
3. Liam Turner (A)
Fullbacks
1. Jordan Larmour
2. Hugo Keenan
3. Michael Sylvester (A)
[/su_column][/su_row]
The first thing you’ll notice is that Cullen has stacked depth in a few positions as they head into the busy period of rugby we’re all expecting over the next year.
Hooker
This looks like a real “sweat” position for Leinster. On the face of it, it looks a little overcrowded with four senior hookers but Cronin is probably on his last contract (it hasn’t been confirmed as a one-year extension but I think that’s a fair assumption to make) and James Tracey looks like the most under threat in that quartet going forward.
Rónan Kelleher had his breakout year this season before the lockdown and managed to get capped so he looks like Leinster’s incumbent starting hooker for the time being. That said, when it comes to the front row, the ideal scenario is to have two players in each position that can split the position across 80 minutes with either a different blend of roles or an elite continuation of roles. Furlong and Porter allow Leinster to have a strong continuation of roles at tighthead (both players are strong scrummagers, lifters and heavy ball carriers) and when Leinster had McGrath in situ they were able to blend roles between McGrath and Healy. They need a little work at loosehead, in my opinion, but they seem to be putting an excellent blend of roles together at hooker.
Kelleher seems to have the pace and mobility to fill a role similar to Cronin and, in Dan Sheehan, Leinster have a guy with the potential to be a top-end heavy hooker (6’3″ and 110kg) who can really up the power for them off the bench or by starting and setting the table for Kelleher in the second half.
Certain elements of Sheehan’s game as a senior professional are a question mark because we just don’t know what he looks like in that environment against other full professionals as of yet but he’s got all the physical traits you’d look for.
Those traits, along with what Leinster will have seen of Sheehan playing A rugby, AIL and in training, was enough to convince them to offer him a senior deal in the second year of his academy stint. He will not have been short of offers from elsewhere, let’s put it like that.
I’d imagine that Kelleher will re-start the season as the number one hooker with Cronin splitting the position off the bench but I think it’s only a matter of time before Leinster will introduce Sheehan into a Category 1 role. James Tracey will be in a unique position as 29-year-old capped international that’s floating in the middle of a depth chart that’s got two 22-year-olds in it but I think Tracey can carve a niche for himself as a regular PRO14 squad member and occasional Cat 1 feature at this stage in his career in a similar vein to Michael Bent.
I think they’ve got a good blend of veteran experience, solid squad guys and high potential young talent but Leinster will have to decide on Bobby Sheehan (Dan’s younger brother) and John McKee (a regular feature on this year’s Ireland u20 side) when it comes to full academy slots this summer.
Sheehan is a 6’5″, 111kg heavy hooker at 20 years of age and McKee (originally from Campbell College in Ulster) reminds me a lot of Sean Cronin in his playstyle are currently in the Leinster sub-academy but a settled looking senior roster ahead of them in the medium term might make a move elsewhere attractive than it might otherwise be. I think that Bobby Sheehan is the standout physical talent in that Leinster underage group and he would have featured in this year’s u20 Six Nations were it not for injury – like Scott Buckley. I have a feeling that he’ll be a focus for both Leinster and a few others over this summer and beyond.
Midfield
Henshaw and Ringrose are the settled starting pair in this Leinster group and I expect both to be on a central contract by the end of the summer. Ringrose is currently negotiating with the IRFU – that’s why he’s not included on the 28 name list above – but I can’t see any scenario where he doesn’t come to an agreement.
Leinster chose not to renew Joe Tomane’s contract in this cycle and, despite his ability to cover both midfield and wing slots to a pretty high level, it’s not too much of a surprise given his injury issues over the last two years. Tomane is a quality player – something Leinster needed with Henshaw and Ringrose regularly away on international duty – but he was undone by an inability to stay fit.
In the current financial environment, Leinster took a managed risk in not contracting anyone from outside the province even though I’d argue that they are slightly down on top quality behind Henshaw and Ringrose. That hasn’t been an issue for them during the Tomane’s tenure but on the evidence of this season’s PRO14, I think he’ll be missed. That isn’t to say that the O’Brien collective populating the Leinster depth chart behind Henshaw and Ringrose are sub-par players, it’s just that I wonder about their ceiling at pro-level. Jimmy O’Brien has shown good stuff and versatility whenever I’ve seen him, Conor O’Brien looks to have the right stuff physically and Tommy O’Brien’s work at underage hints at quality but I think this could be an area of struggle for Leinster in the short to medium term if there’s an injury to one of the starting pair for a long period.
I haven’t seen enough from O’Loughlin/O’Briens to convince me that they are ready to regularly step up to an elite level as of yet and, for me, the reasons for signing Tomane in the first place are still largely present. That said, I think David Hawkshaw is a possible breakout star for Leinster at #12 but he’s had a rough time recovering from a serious knee injury suffered in 2019.
This is an area of the squad where Leinster are taking a bit of chance but in the post-COVID19 world, the finances it would have taken to keep Tomane as a cover player were better off being used elsewhere.
Scrumhalf
If there’s one area of Leinster’s squad that doesn’t have a long, obvious chain of succession in place. Luke McGrath and Jamison Gibson Park are the current senior incumbents but I’m not all that convinced by the players in the depth chart behind them. I’m not sure that Leo Cullen is either, given the approach Leinster made to Craig Casey on the day of the Champions Cup semi-final of 2019. O’Sullivan, Patterson and Osborne all look like decent players but I wonder about their ceiling at the top end of the game.
Luke McGrath and Gibson-Park are still at a decent age and productivity. McGrath, in particular, is a perfect fit for Leinster at the moment in that he’s a quality player at a decent age but, in the medium term, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Nick McCarthy return to Leinster to round out their scrumhalf roster post-2020/21.
The real issue would seem to be succession in the medium/long term unless a standout prospect begins to emerge in the next year or two at underage level. Gibson-Park is IQ as of this season but it remains to be seen if he regularly makes the Irish squad. In some ways, Leinster might be hoping he doesn’t. If Leinster consistently lose both their senior scrumhalves to the wider Irish squad, I think that – again – re-signing McCarthy makes a lot of sense in the medium term.
The problem is more of a long term option. Do Leinster have a ready-made option to take over from the incumbents inside the next two seasons? Right now, I would say no. If Leinster can unearth an IQ player in the next season or two, don’t be surprised to see them make a move in this position.
Back Row
This is the biggest area of strength and potential strife in the Leinster machine is the back row. I say “strife” in a measured way, in that I don’t think there’ll be rival Whatsapp groups hammering each other over the weekend’s selection, but I do think that there is potential trouble brewing over the next two seasons.
In one way, the current global calendar completely aligns with Leinster’s current academy production. In a normal PRO14 season, 13 games are directly affected by test windows if you are an Irish province once you get out of the early parts of the season.
Three games come during the November test window.
Three interprovincial games are played at Christmas where there are limits on the internationals that you can select.
Once the Champions Cup pool ends in January, most of the Irish internationals enter the international bubble for the Six Nations until the end of March and, in that time, there are seven games played in the PRO14.
In that environment, a large squad is vital and teams like Munster and Leinster have certainly not been punished for carrying 45+ professionals for a season when you factor in test call-ups and injury. Leinster’s current squad has 48 players on senior contracts (Rob Kearney/Fergus McFadden are onboard until the end of the abridged 2019/20 season) and 10 players on full academy deals.
That’s 56 players that will be available to Leo Cullen throughout the next season where we assume there will be a condensed calendar with a lot of rugby played during test windows – as the national side is the financial engine of the game in Ireland – and with a Lions tour coming up at the end of it.
Munster currently have 44 senior professionals with 15 full academy players signed up for 2020/21 but have 25 senior players off contract at the end of the 2021 season.
This is directly related to the projected international schedule we’re likely to see in November and then, latterly, in the 2021 Six Nations/Summer Tours/Lions tour. The November test window is one that could see six or seven games being played with the end of the 2020 Six Nations being wrapped into games with Fiji and Japan.
When you look at what Leinster will likely lose from their squad during those test windows – and I’ll focus on the back row in particular here – over the next year, you have the following list;
- Dan Leavy (if fit)
- Josh Van Der Flier
- Jack Conan
- Caelan Doris
- Rhys Ruddock (possible)
- Max Deegan (possible)
- Will Connors (unlikely but possible)
That means a lot of game time in the back row the likes of Scott Penny, Josh Murphy, Ryan Baird, Will Connors, Brian Deeny and they’ll be bolstered by Scott Fardy playing as a hybrid lock for much of the season.
When you see Fardy being extended for another year (I assume) alongside promotions like Baird, Dunne and former Irish U20 captains like Charlie Ward in the academy, it’s with these long test windows in mind.
The issue will come when the test window’s end. The Champions Cup always tends to sharpen selection focus and reveal what the actual depth chart is in pretty stark relief.
I think a fit Dan Leavy starts for Leinster in a big game any day of the week. I also think that leaving a guy like Josh Van Der Flier out will negatively impact Leinster’s pack mobility. You could start those guys at 6 and 7 – the numbers and stereotypical roles don’t matter – with a guy like Scott Fardy/Rhys Ruddock coming off the bench to round out the lineout options in the mid-game for whomever of the two you want to role switch.
The real movement in the depth chart is going to come at #8, I think.
Jack Conan would be the current man in possession of the chief ball-carrying role in Leinster’s back row. You could make an argument that he was at his very best when he was splitting that load with Dan Leavy during 2017/18 but, despite his recent injury layoff, I think he’s got the seniority to get a starting run now that he’s back fit.
In the interim, Caelan Doris has stolen a real march on the position and did enough to get capped as a starter by Andy Farrell in the 2020 Six Nations. Long term, I think he’s the guy for Leinster as their chief ball-carrying asset in the back row. I think he’s more dynamic than Conan right now, despite being lighter, and I think he’s got the variety in his athletic capacity to be a complete option at test level and, as a result, win the position at Leinster long term.
CJ Stander’s contract status at Munster and Ireland over the next few months will play an interesting part in the decisions made at Leinster. If Doris emerges as an active challenger to Stander’s recent supremacy in the Irish #8 shirt, it’ll be the best of both worlds from a contracting perspective. A 22-year-old player actively playing off against a senior professional starting at another province is exactly what the IRFU want and, in a squeezed financial environment post COVID19, players who are in that middle space of being more than good enough for PRO14 and most European opposition.
I think Max Deegan and, to an extent, Jack Conan fall into that space. The flanker spots are a little bit easier to game plan from a Leinster POV. If you’re going with a hybrid lock on the flank to start against, say Racing 92, that leaves two spots that you can tailor around the opposition. If the opposition is big and physically dominant, you’d want to match that given the way that Leinster play.
A Leinster back row against Racing 92 in the next few months could look like this;
4. Toner
5. Ryan
6. Leavy
7. Van Der Flier
8. Doris
————-
19. Fardy
20. Conan
That would allow you to change up to a more lineout dominant configuration in the second half against what might be a tiring Racing 92. Fardy would replace Toner and Conan would replace Leavy as a direct ball carrier if you wanted to retain the ball for long periods.
I think that Doris and Deegan over much the same thing in any kind of configuration where Leavy and Van Der Flier start and Doris offers much more dynamism and athleticism than Deegan. Deegan falls into that grey area for me where he’s an excellent handler of the ball and he has a rounded skill set but I’m just not sure how he fits into Leinster’s goals long term if Doris works out. Physically, he looks to be a leaner, more mobile version of Doris but I’m not sure there’s any part of the game par passing that Deegan solidly outperforms Doris. That will be an interesting one to watch over the next few months.
Jack Conan is in a tricky spot in that his size and power is still a massively valuable asset to Leinster – especially in an environment where Doris and Stander are the primary competitors at test level – but Conan has been unable to make a sustained impact at test level, for whatever reason. Yes, he’s been competing with a test Lion standard incumbent in CJ Stander who has been one of the most consistent quality performers for Ireland over the last three seasons.
In a squeezed contract environment, would Leinster look to make a shift in their depth chart over the next contract cycle? Jack Conan signed a new deal in 2019 and if he signed a standard two-year, that would put him in a contract year in 2020/21. If he isn’t adding to his Irish cap count in that time, I think it’s plausible that (a) he might be tempted by an opportunity abroad and (b) Leinster might look at their contract space and prioritise spreading the value of a 17 cap international and senior player across a few other positions.
Long term, I think Leinster will pair up Penny and Van Der Flier as they look to be quite similar in their skillset and role output even though Penny can take his ball carrying to a level that could surprise a few people. Penny has the kind of quality to be a “use him or lose him” type of player as far as the IRFU are concerned and Cullen is smart enough to recognise that. I expect Penny to take up a more important role going forward.
Will Connors and Josh Murphy have had very decent seasons pre-lockdown and their new contracts reflect that. Unless both add something extra to their game I’m not sure of how they’ll work out long-term but they’ll certainly add depth to Leinster over the next two seasons. Beyond that, I think one or both might find themselves under pressure for a spot if the global calendar removes the need for a 50+ squad post-2021.
Leinster’s back row depth – eleven senior professionals capable of playing across three starting and one bench spot – is a direct response to the needs of a club with Leinster’s international representation and a need to play 13 games with 65 points available over the course of a PRO14 season. If the PRO14 limit the number of games that occur during test windows post-2021, as has long been rumoured, the need for a large squad will decrease exponentially. This is a game that is desperately finding ways to cut costs and removing test window PRO14 games in 2021 would (a) help to sync up the global calendar (b) help to draw numbers to PRO14 games and (c) mean pro sides could lower their squad size without penalty.
If the PRO14 reduce the number of test window games to two in November and completely break for the Six Nations, you could feasibly reduce a professional squad to 35-40 senior professionals and augment the workload with academy talent.
When I see Leinster riding with 11 senior back row players over two contract cycles, it makes me think that there’s going to be a bit of a slim down over the 2021 and 2022 contract cycles. Some of that will be natural ageing out – I expect Leinster to have moved on from Fardy/Ruddock/Conan by the time 2022/23 rolls around – but I think they’ll have trimmed down their numbers considerably from its current high.
At some point, I think Cullen and Lancaster will have to decide on who to keep and who to pass on. There’s breathing room this season but unless there’s a series of long term injuries to key men, at some point a cohesive 15 man unit will have to be put together and whoever isn’t in that back row unit of four consistently will, at some stage, be wondering what they have to do to change that.
It’s easy to say “just play better than the incumbent” but dislodging Dan Leavy, Josh Van Der Flier and Caelan Doris – who could all tour with the Lions next year – from the Leinster Category 1 side is considerably harder. None of those players is even close to reaching a point where they are ageing out so I think a difficult decision awaits Leo Cullen in the short term. He’ll also be aware that any player he isn’t using regularly will be in danger of leaving and strengthening a direct rival. He’s managed to convince a lot of young back-row talent that they are better off biding their time in Leinster but it remains to be seen how long more he can do that at the same time that a new depth chart will reveal itself to everyone.
Back Three
James Lowe will play for Ireland and, if he continues to play as he has done for the last few years, I think he’ll probably start for Ireland before long. It isn’t that he’s decisively better than Jacob Stockdale – who, incidentally, could well make a run for the long term fullback jersey – it’s that he will give Andy Farrell and Mike Catt the option of running with a power winger.
Lowe is a vital, almost irreplaceable part of Leinster’s attacking system and I think it won’t be long before he’s filling that role for Ireland too. That leaves quite a considerable gap in the Leinster back three for the next season. This is one area of the squad where a reduction in test window rugby would suit Leinster because I expect them to be without Larmour and Lowe for large swathes of the current season. They are used to the former, at this stage, but Lowe is not so easily replaced.
With the presumed exit of Rob Kearney after his mini-extension and the retirement of Fergus McFadden, I expect Dave Kearney to be the established quality operator in the Leinster back three this season. Cian Kelleher has been pretty decent for Connacht since his return but I wonder about his ceiling at the top level. Adam Byrne is another player with a massive upside but a few defensive issues that have let him down on a few occasions. Byrne would appear to me to be the like for like replacement for Lowe from a physical POV and I think a switch to the left-wing would suit him.
This is the one area of the Leinster squad that I feel is ripe for a possible marquee signing in 2021.
Plotting The Squad
Here’s my assessment of Leinster’s squad as it stands on June 30th 2020.
Priority 1: Replace within one season
Priority 2: Replace within two seasons
Priority 3: Replace within three seasons
Core 1: Important player in peak age that likely has four seasons of peak performance remaining.
Squad 2: High squad player in peak age that likely has four seasons of peak performance remaining.
Unknown: Unproven talent with a ceiling ranging between Core 1 and Squad 2.
Foundation Player: Young talent (20-24) expected to play for five + seasons and transition to Core 1, if they aren’t CORE 1 status at the time of writing.
Potential Foundation: Talent ID’d young player (18-23) that has the potential to ascend to regular first-team exposure as a Core 1 type player.
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Loosehead Prop
1. Cian Healy – PRIORITY 1
2. Peter Dooley – SQUAD 2
3. Ed Byrne – SQUAD 2
4. Vakh Abdaladze – SQUAD 2
5. Michael Milne (A) – POTENTIAL FOUNDATION
Tighthead Prop
1. Tadhg Furlong – CORE 1
2. Andrew Porter – FOUNDATION
3. Michael Bent – PRIORITY 1
4. Tom Clarkson (A) – POTENTIAL FOUNDATION
Hooker
1. Rónan Kelleher – POTENTIAL FOUNDATION
2. Seán Cronin – PRIORITY 1
3. James Tracy – SQUAD 2
4. Dan Sheehan – POTENTIAL FOUNDATION
Lock
1. James Ryan – FOUNDATION
2. Devin Toner – PRIORITY 1
3. Ross Molony – SQUAD 2
4. Jack Dunne – UNKNOWN
5. Charlie Ryan (A) – POTENTIAL FOUNDATION
Lock/Blindside Hybrid
1. Scott Fardy – PRIORITY 1
2. Rhys Ruddock – SQUAD 2
3. Ryan Baird – POTENTIAL FOUNDATION
4. Josh Murphy – SQUAD 2
5. Brian Deeny – UNKNOWN
[/su_column] [su_column size=”1/3″ center=”no” class=””]
Flanker
1. Dan Leavy – CORE 1
2. Josh Van Der Flier – CORE 1
3. Will Connors – SQUAD 2
4. Scott Penny – FOUNDATION
5. Martin Moloney (A) – UNKNOWN
#8
1. Jack Conan – CORE 1
2. Caelan Doris – FOUNDATION
3. Max Deegan – SQUAD 2
Scrum-Half
1. Luke McGrath – CORE 1
2. Jamison Gibson-Park – SQUAD 2
3. Rowan Osborne – UNKNOWN
4. Hugh O’Sullivan – UNKNOWN
5. Paddy Patterson (A) – UNKNOWN
1. Jonathan Sexton – PRIORITY 1
2. Ross Byrne – SQUAD 2
3. Ciarán Frawley – POTENTIAL FOUNDATION
4. Harry Byrne – POTENTIAL FOUNDATION
[/su_column] [su_column size=”1/3″ center=”no” class=””]
Inside Centre
1. Robbie Henshaw – CORE 1
2. Conor O’Brien – SQUAD 2
3. David Hawkshaw (A) – POTENTIAL FOUNDATION
Outside Centre
1. Garry Ringrose – CORE 1
2. Rory O’Loughlin – SQUAD 2
3. Jimmy O’Brien – SQUAD 2
4. Tommy O’Brien – POTENTIAL FOUNDATION
Left-Wing
1. James Lowe – CORE 1
2. Adam Byrne – SQUAD 2
3. Aaron O’Sullivan (A) UNKNOWN
Right-Wing
1. Dave Kearney – PRIORITY 2
2. Cian Kelleher – SQUAD 2
3. Liam Turner (A) – UNKNOWN
Fullbacks
1. Jordan Larmour – FOUNDATION
2. Hugo Keenan – SQUAD 2
3. Michael Sylvester (A) UNKNOWN
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You can see the areas of concern for Leinster. They have a deep succession chart at hooker and tighthead but the loosehead side of the scrum looks like an area where I wouldn’t be surprised to see a two-year contract for a NIQ in 2021. Cian Healy is currently on a central deal that expires next season but he still looks productive to my eye. Will he get another central contract? It’s up in the air, I would say, but I can’t see him leaving Leinster after 2020/21 whatever happens.
There’s certainly a lot of potential partners for James Ryan but they’ll have to emerge as real options in the next season with Toner and Fardy almost certainly on their last contracts. Baird and Ward look like the most likely options there but Leinster don’t need to go all-in on either of them just yet.
Brian Deeny and the sub-academy’s Ivan Soroka have potential as hybrid-locks and both Ward and Dunne have real potential. All are still relative question marks, however, and Leinster will have to make a decision there relatively quickly. If a standout option doesn’t emerge in the next few months, I could see Leinster looking for a short term option to bridge the gap as the likes of Baird, Dunne and Ward range between 20 and 22, and they are far from the generational physical and mental talent that James Ryan was at the same age.
Leinster would be unwise to rush them into senior roles they might not be ready for, especially when they’d be replacing players as important to Leinster’s last four years as Scott Fardy and Devin Toner.
Athletically, I think Leinster’s young locks are pretty good but Toner and Fardy have been massively important factors to Leinster’s lineout in the last three years and replacing what they bring to this crucial aspect of the game won’t be easily done.
That’s going to be an area of concern for Leinster going forward as James Ryan steps further into the mantle of lineout leader. Having an experienced offensive and defensive jumper in Scott Fardy has been an excellent weapon for Ryan to call on and Toner’s lineout is the strongest part of his game. A lineout caller is only as good as his options and this area of the game is something I’ll be covering in the last part of this series along with what I’ve de-coded of Leinster’s attack over the last three months.
Leinster have a strong CORE 1 and Foundational base in key areas but there are key areas of succession, depth chart selection and the odd positional oddity (back three and scrumhalf) that are rocks just beneath the water line for the Leinster machine.
