The second row is vexing me.
it doesn’t make any sense to me that Alun Wyn Jones is back on the tour but there he is, back on the tour nonetheless and taking contact on his left shoulder against the Stormers like he didn’t dislocate the bloody thing three weeks ago. I know time moves quicker in the pandemic but I have a feeling Alun Wyn Jones might have access to a special pocket of time where he gets to fit three months of recovery into three weeks. I know it was likely a partial dislocation but still, it’s remarkable all the same.
Warren Gatland’s decision making in the pack this week will be quite complex but one aspect of the choices available to him is quite simple; will the Lions be better with Alun Wyn Jones leading them out for the first test or not?
We speak about a lot of tactical and practical stuff on here and I like that because, for the most part, it’s pretty black and white. Something either is or is not on the field. You make a pass or you don’t. A scheme works or it doesn’t. What is less clear is the impact some players have on other players that goes beyond their practical role phase for phase. It is their aura. It is their influence. It is their ability to make others better. Martin Johnson had it. Richie McCaw had it. Paul O’Connell had it. Alun Wyn Jones has it.
This might be chalked up to the sneering “ligind” stuff that gets banged around by people who don’t really get the game but this stuff is important. Moments like this can get the extra 5% out of a group that can be the difference between a win and a loss in a close game and it doesn’t have anything to do with pods, screens or forward shapes. There’s a fine line with this kind of “aura” – the player exuding the aura has to be able to do it on the pitch to get any kind of real respect to make their selection worthwhile – but Alun Wyn Jones is still producing at an elite level and, as we saw against the Stormers at least, he looks ready to roll.
With that in mind, I think the Lions will be better man for man with Alun Wyn Jones leading them out in Cape Town even with concerns over his fitness. We’ll be better-managed on-field, we’ll have a more dynamic relationship with the referee, we’ll call better lineouts, our role blend should be better and that’s before we get down to the heavy support tighthead lock role that I expect Jones to nail to the letter as per usual.
But now we have a problem.
My plans before Jones return featured Iain Henderson and the outstanding Adam Beard, who has performed outstandingly well for the Lions since his call up to replace Jones post-Japan, in the same matchday squad. Now that Jones is back and starting, that leaves two guys to fill one roleset on the bench. It has become Iain Henderson or Adam Beard, just like that. Now you could make an argument that we want our captain to be on the field for 80 minutes and, as such, we can with role variety on the bench but that’s too much of a risk for me, given the nature of Jones injury and recovery so I want another heavy support tighthead lock on the bench.
Hill hasn’t really done it for me on this tour so far so should it be Beard or Henderson taking that jersey with a view to giving the Lions a strong last 20 minutes? They both have massive upsides. Beard is, well, massive. He’s 6’9″ with a massive wingspan and has the weight and stopping power to be hugely effective against the Springbok maul and in defence generally. This isn’t a theory. We have seen this just last week where Beard had a real impact on maul-d as well as being an easy lineout target. He’s also an underrated handler of the ball capable of accurate tip-on and screen passing so, offensively, he adds something in all the possible slots across a 3-3-X system.
Henderson, on the other hand, gives you better carrying impact, better work around the offensive breakdown, lineout calling, really effective tighthead scrummaging (one of the big improvements in his game) and more mobility on d, with a strong poach in his game too. Henderson does have a bit of that calming aura around him too so I think I’m going to go for Iain Henderson as my tighthead lock replacement in a razor-thin decision, with a view to him getting 25 minutes at the end of the game guaranteed.
That second half of the game is going to be vital in managing the result over the course of 80 minutes. When Eddie Jones spoke about “changing a player’s role” in response to media questions about him being “dropped” to the bench, you could be forgiven for thinking it was coaching bullshit to soothe egos at being benched. That was in a pre-“bomb squad” world. Managing your impact off the bench is as important as starting the game well, so we have to segment our rolesets across multiple game states.
From the start, I want as much defensive impact as the Lions can manage to meet fire-with-fire with the Springboks in the primary defensive line, with a view to generating as many kick receipts from them as possible. De Klerk’s kicking in midweek was of middling quality and I think the Lions will like the idea of building a few transition plays to capitalise on the positive pictures they produced in that same game.
With that in mind, I’m selecting Maro Itoje to start alongside Alun Wyn Jones to, ideally, play the full 80 minutes as a 4/6D Lock. I want Itoje loading up on defensive involvements, offensive ruck involvements, pestering De Klerk’s kicking action, attacking the Springbok lineout and being a primary target on the Lions lineout possession. I’m selecting Courtney Lawes to start at #6 to double down on this principle, with a view to switching Tadhg Beirne in on 55 minutes to play a more offensive half-lock role.
What do I like about Lawes? He’s a fabulous defensive hitter, a strong ball carrier, a top-quality operator on both sides of the lineout and a super aggressive presence at the breakdown, where I’d want to send a real message to the Springboks early. In the second half, I want to take advantage of the drop off in output we saw from the Springboks last week and the downward shift in quality and impact of their own “bomb-squad” – who better than Tadhg Beirne to run as a wide forward in that second pod of three or in the wide pod of one or two in the last quarter? In the second half, you’d expect a little more separation on the Boks carrying structure so that opens up better quality breakdown poaching for Beirne. This isn’t about dropping guys – this is about having the best team on the field to manage the different moments of the game. For me, that has Lawes starting as a second 4/6D Lock alongside Itoje and Beirne finishing as an offensive half-lock with huge turnover winning potential.
That leaves three slots in the back row to be decided, given I’ve gone for a 6/2 split on the bench.
I’ve gone with Tom Curry and Taulupe Faletau to start with Hamish Watson making a managed switch off the bench for Curry after 60 minutes.
I’d deploy Curry in a heavy wing forward role – we want a lot of primary carrying from him across the first and second pods of forwards, we want heavy impact defence tracking ruck to ruck with licence to poach on the second or third ruck if the Springboks’ deviate from their apex carrier only carrying strategy or if they drop off their spacing.
I’d want Hamish Watson off the bench to replace Curry as a strike wing forward. I’d want him running in the wide channels as an edge forward offensively with a licence to roam as an inside ball option on the phase after any tramline involvements. I’d move Watson to a wider defensive slot to up his involvements should the Springboks have a lot of offensive possession but I’d mainly station him to the outside of our primary impact defenders at that point to increase Watson’s poaching involvements.
In tandem with Beirne, Watson will open allow the Lions to up the pace and range of their attacking schemes while also offering a strong poaching game, which I feel will be more effective as the game progresses. It’s these qualities that made me go for Watson over the other small forward build in the squad, Sam Simmonds. I feel Watson is the more complete player.
This decision was a sub-decision of the selection at #8, where I went with Taulupe Faletau over Jack Conan. That isn’t to say that Jack Conan hasn’t been impressive on this tour but I think Faletau’s top-end ability is better, he’s more dynamic on transition, has a wider skillset in the wide channel – where I would deploy him primarily – and I think he has a wider, more accomplished defensive radius.
That is to say, I think he’s more agile when defending wider spaces, makes better reads and is a more consistent heavy hitter in the tighter exchanges. I think Faletau is a more versatile lineout option too, which edges him over Conan for me. Ideally, I’d want Faletau under jersey pressure for the second test, with a risk of being replaced completely by Conan depending on performance.
The front row is much more simple, for me.
Tadhg Furlong starts at #3 with Kyle Sinkler at #18. They’re the two best scrummaging tightheads and top-class heavy ball carriers. I’d want both showing up consistently on-ball off #9 and on impact defence with a 55/25 split on time, ideally. Scrummaging wise, both players are top class and I expect them to handle what the Springboks will throw at them there, although I’d be making my switch pretty soon after the Boks switch out their front rows to make sure it’s a fresh v fresh matchup. That’s a pretty simple decision for me that doesn’t need too much thought.
Hooker is pretty simple for me, too. I’d start Jamie George with Luke Cowan-Dickie off the bench with another 55/25 split. They are the most accurate at the line, they’re both really skilled and powerful in that apex position off #9 and they’ve got a real impact defensively and at close range. Mentally, I think they both have an aggressive edge to their game which I like but the range, variety and accuracy in their throw made the decision easy for me.
The last big decision was loosehead prop, which was more difficult than I initially pictured. Mako Vunipola is a cert, right? On reputation, sure, but watching him over the last few games left me wanting more. His scrummaging wasn’t great and, outside one or two good close range carries, he didn’t really look like the same player. I went back and watched all the games on tour to date with this position in mind and Vunipola was the guy with the least impact in every department bar his defence. I’ve gone with Wyn Jones to start because I like the quality of his carrying off #9 and he’s an aggressive, technical scrummager with Rory Sutherland on the bench. Sutherland is a very strong, low-penalty scrummager – which the Lions will need with Malherbe possibly coming off the bench for the Boks – and he’s solid around the field. Again, I’d run my switch at loosehead in tandem for when the Boks make their change to the front row to maximise fresh matchups.
I think this starting pack and replacements will have enough to execute what I feel is the offensive scheme the Lions are going for. Will it be enough?
Time will tell.
I’ll be back for a squad announcement after it’s named later this week to see how far off I was and the possible reasons for any differences.
Lions Test Pack: 1. Wyn Jones, 2. Jamie George, 3. Tadhg Furlong, 4. Maro Itoje, 5. Alun Wyn Jones (c), 6. Courtney Lawes, 7. Tom Curry, 8. Taulupe Faletau
Replacements: 16. Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17. Rory Sutherland, 18. Kyle Sinkler, 19. Iain Henderson, 20. Tadhg Beirne, 21. Hamish Watson
