It’s everyone’s favourite — or least favourite — time of year once again.

Contract season. 

Last year, I had something of a hit in my Depth Chart series, which was published at the end of September 2024, when I correctly scoped out Dan Kelly as a potential signing.

Leicester Tigers’ Dan Kelly is an obvious target. Kelly is 23, newly Irish qualified again after his three-year timer expired following a lone England cap in 2021, and he’s in a spot at Tigers where he’s the third man behind Solomone Kata and a big-money signing in Izaia Perese.

There were rumours that Munster were talking to Leicester about Kelly during the wrangle over Frisch, but buying out the last year of his contract was seen as too expensive. It expires next July, and I think making a move for him as our primary outside centre makes a ton of sense.

I’m going to list this one as a successful contract season potshot, given he’s at the club this season, but in truth, it was a no-brainer decision for Munster and the IRFU to chase Kelly. It was the contractual equivalent of sprinting downhill. So many individual strands of the deal came together at the exact right time.

Leicester’s chopping and changing at a coaching level had bounced Kelly around their depth chart, and he needed a change of scenery. Borthwick had moved on from him at test level, too, so all of the chicken bones fell in the right spot for a move to Munster and the IRFU. We ended up with an outstanding player who’s in line for an Irish cap at some point this season.

There aren’t any other obvious, super-no-brainer moves like that this season.

On a retention basis, the only real decision to make is at back-up scrumhalf. Craig Casey is on the last year of an expiring contract this season, and I genuinely believe he’s the exact type of guy to be getting centrally contracted by the IRFU, given how far ahead he is of every other scrumhalf on the island not named Jamison Gibson Park, who turns 34 this season. I already covered my thought processes on that here.

In an update to that article, I think it’s likely Munster will retain Ethan Coughlan, as it stands, perhaps on a one-year deal or a lower-tier two-year deal as cover, if he accepts that. That would likely mean parting ways with Paddy Patterson at the end of the season, with Munster looking to bring in a veteran #9 as cover, likely in the form of an Alby Mathewson-type player, and we may look to make that deal before the end of this season.

Casey’s recent hamstring injury — while not as bad as first feared — scared the shit out of the organisation because, while we knew he wasn’t going to be able to play every single game this season, he’s a must-have for any game of consequence. Coughlan and Patterson both have quality in their game, but neither is the complete package, and I’d be pretty nervous about either man covering a serious game, as they will likely have to do against Leinster in a few weeks.

I don’t think there’s a slam-dunk Irish-qualified option out there in the short or medium term, so this spot looks likely to require NIQ cover, both this season and next.

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Ultimately, Clayton McMillan likely knows exactly where he wants to strengthen his side and, along with Ian Costello and the rest of his coaching staff, how he’s going to go about making space for them. When Clayton McMillan signed with Munster and, ultimately, the IRFU when he had several test options sitting in his inbox, he didn’t do it to operate on a shoestring budget. In fact, you don’t sign a guy like McMillan with that as the plan.

One of the ways you sell a guy like McMillan on that move in the first place is with the promise that when he identifies areas that, when reinforced, will make him, and by extension, Munster, successful, that the dispensation and funding he needs will be there.

Jacques Neinaber, while a much bigger name with World Cup wins on his CV, didn’t go to Leinster to be told “no” when it came to signing guys like Snyman, Slimani, Barrett and Ioane. To be clear, Neinaber isn’t the one negotiating with these players or their agents, but there’s no point bringing in a highly regarded coach if you aren’t going to give him the tools necessary to compete at the highest level.

McMillan is in the same boat.

You do not get him on board in the first place without assurances both from Munster and David Humphreys at the IRFU that, when he sees fit, the money and dispensation will be there for the right player at the right time.

When Rassie Erasmus joined Munster in 2016 — seen as a massive coup at the time, and even better in hindsight — he was given as much of a free hand as you’ll see any coach in the Irish system get to be successful when it came to bringing in players to improve Munster immediately.

I can see McMillan operating similarly. To date, he’s quite wisely made it clear that everyone in the squad is going to get a chance to showcase their value and, by the end of this block of games, you’ll see the majority of the squad having gametime, but McMillan is the type of guy who expects that performance every second of every day in the HPC, and outside it.

But make no mistake; he will already know exactly what he needs and, quite likely, who he needs to improve Munster this season and, more importantly, next season.

Will we probably see a short-term deal at #9 this side of Christmas? Yeah, I do. Do I think we might see the same at tighthead? It depends on the fitness of Jager and Salanoa, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see another short-term deal there, with another signing being made for next season — maybe the short-term and longer-term signing will be the same guy.

After that, in the medium term, I think Munster are going to be looking for role variety and system fits in the squad as a whole.

If scrumhalf is sorted for maybe a year or so with veteran cover, I think our backline actually looks OK. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Thaakir Abrahams depart at the end of this season, as, despite his game-breaking ability, I feel that NIQ space could be better served in the pack.

I think we’ll see a signing at hooker (x 2 years), tighthead (x 1 year) and, if we don’t retain Jean Kleyn, possibly at lock. If we keep Jean Kleyn for another year, I think you’ll see the bulk of our spend at scrumhalf, hooker and tighthead.

Why sign someone at hooker?

I went into this during my Expiration Date series, but even with the retention of Diarmuid Barron — which I think is a no-brainer — I think we need to pair a heavier, power hooker with both himself and Lee Barron as senior competition and rotation options, especially with Clein and Sheahan bubbling away nicely in the background.

Munster have been linked with the Scarlets’ newly capped Springbok Marnus Van Der Merwe. 

I don’t know if Munster are talking to Van Der Merwe, but it would make total sense if we are.

I compared him to the same group as in that Expiration Date article and found out exactly why he made the Springboks squad this summer.

How Marnus van der Merwe stacks up on a per/80 basis with the elite

• Ball-carry threat: 8.6 carries/80 with 49.5% dominant and 66.7% 2+ tacklers — the best contact efficiency of this group.
  (Sheehan: 12.9 carries/80, 39% dominant; Taukei’aho: 17.0, 39% dominant; Kelleher: 7.5, 42.3%; Grobbelaar: 7.0, 32.4%; Mbonambi: 5.7, 45.3%.)
• Gainline & evasion: 58.3% gainline, 22.1% evasion — not as explosive as Sheehan (70.2%) but comfortably ahead of most.
• Attacking ruck work: 10.7 rucks/80 at 89.9% effectiveness — top-tier efficiency, keeps tempo after contacts.
• Defensive engine: 17.5 tackles/80 (highest in the sample group) at 86.2% success; 1.08 breakdown steals/80 (best here) plus 0.36 turnover tackles/80.
  (Grobbelaar/Kelleher defend very cleanly, but VdM brings the most disruption.)

Why We’d Look At Him

• Adds bite to phase play. His elite dominant-carry and multi-tackler rates fit our contact-heavy identity under McMillan, with a particular speciality in maul-adjacent launch zones.
• Real breakdown value. The steals/80 profile gives us another jackal threat beyond the usual back-five suspects, changing exit and momentum moments.
• Ruck reliability. Near-90% attacking ruck effectiveness is plug-and-play for Munster’s quick, direct chaining after first contact.
• Durability. 892 minutes suggests he can shoulder URC/European volume and rotate cleanly with the Barrons.
• Complementary skill set. Pairs well with a more strike-oriented No.2 — VdM as the enforcer/tempo stabiliser, the other hooker as the finisher.

Van der Merwe brings Munster DNA — heavy contacts, relentless defensive work-rate, and genuine breakdown threat — all while maintaining ruck speed. He was part of a fantastic Scarlets lineout last season, too, as he hasn’t played for them yet this season, so he looks like an ideal fit if we can get the business done.

This is the kind of signing that fits with McMillan’s system and directly improves the overall quality of our front five.

We’ll have another look at what the rest of Munster’s contract business might look like next week.