This England side are not the team that we beat so handily last March.
I say “handily” here because winning that game was not easy and I hope I’m not conveying that. I’m saying that Ireland were a very bad match for the England team selected the last time around because England were lacking the ball carriers that they need to play at their very best. Whatever about “boring” or “methodical” a lot of what England want to do with the ball is similar to the way Ireland play at their best and you can’t play that kind of possession game without a serious roster of ball carriers. England didn’t have that in Twickenham but they have it today – they’ve been making confident noises for a very good reason and the return of Manu Tuilagi and, most importantly, Billy Vunipola are two of the very best reasons out there.
The Billy Vunipola question isn’t the only question we’ll be looking at here so let’s get to the teamsheets and run from there;
The Red Eye Report: England (H)
An “A” would be considered top class by Test standards, a “B” would be considered good by Test standard, a “C” would be considered decent by Test standard, a “D” would be considered below par by Test standards and an “E” would be something I’d consider an exploitable weakness.
Set Piece
Offensive Scrummaging – B
Defensive Scrummaging – B
Attacking Lineout – C
Defensive Lineout – B
Offensive Maul – B
Defensive Maul – B
Open Play
Defensive Structure – B
Phase Play Power – A
Attacking Creativity – B
Structured Attack Off Set Piece – B
Structured Defence Off Set Piece – B
Overall Fitness – B
Kicking – B
Back Three Kick Positioning – B
Deep Belief
For all of England’s bluster ahead of the game (however well placed), they have a lot of things they need to worry about in Ireland’s arsenal.
Last time around, England’s lack of a back row lineout option really hurt their ability to shake off Ireland’s mirror defence and that allowed the likes of O’Mahony, Ryan and Henderson to disrupt England’s chain of possession. Essentially, with only Itoje and Kruis as dedicated elite lineout options, Ireland could simply track one of the two based on their lifters and their position.
Here’s a good example of England’s twin issues in Six Nations 2018 when it came to lineout time;
The ball went to one of Itoje or Kruis at the tail with a disguised step in receiver lift from Simmonds, and the overall play needed to keep Mako Vunipola alive in the scheme to act as a ball carrier coming around the corner.
England had no natural “hitters” outside Vunipola in the pack, so England’s lineout shape had to reflect those needs. Robshaw and Haskell are two dangerous carriers closer to the line but that far out, they needed someone with more punch coming around the corner. In March, it was Mako Vunipola – don’t be surprised if it’s Billy this time around with Mako/Manu filing in on the second phase. You’ll see Billy stepping in as a lifter in this one but I think they’ll mainly want him acting on the first or second phase to maximise his size matchups against guys like Van Der Flier and Sexton.
The key to England’s set-piece attack this time around is the performance of Mark Wilson at #6. Ideally, I think England will have wanted Brad Shields filling in at #6 for this one, as he gives the perfect blend of destructive ball carrying and a sharp lineout option but Newcastle’s Mark Wilson will be filling that third man slot today. That might seem dismissive of Wilson, but it shouldn’t – he’s a fine player – but I wonder if he’s got the lineout game to shake off the attentions of Ryan/Toner/O’Mahony on the split moves that he’ll be used on.
I think he’ll mainly be used in the position that Brad Shields took against Australia back in November;
That’s a movement we might well see today to take advantage of Toner’s perceived lack of speed moving from the defensive point to the line. Having Itoje and Kruis (it was Lawes vs Australia) in the back and the middle is where they’ll want to be ideally so you’ll see a lot of “walk up” movements like this to try and keep O’Mahony “off-time” with Wilson’s front and middle jumps. If England are under pressure, I think you’ll see Itoje moving closer and closer to the front to manage their bailout throws, as long as Toner and Ryan can pressure the middle/tail like they have been for Leinster all season.
If we stymie England at the lineout, we’ll go a long way to preventing them from getting their preferred attacking sequences into play.
Sequence
One of the things that I found interesting in England’s selection was the Ford/Farrell/Manu decision that Eddie made at 10/12. For me, I think that Farrell/Te’o/Tuilagi was the preferred midfield selection for Eddie Jones in this game so the decision to slot Manu Tuilagi into the 12 shirt – the Te’o role – keep Farrell at #10 and bring in Slade at #13 gives us some impression of how they’ll want to play in this game.
England structure themselves quite deep away from the gainline when they’ve got a hitter at #12 and I think they’ll stay the same way in this game. Keep an eye on this sequence here;
They keep Te’o quite deep and wide on this play, and I think the main reason they want to do that is to maximise the physical isolation he can get on Ringrose, who’s defending at Ireland’s edge. Much of the talk in the build up to this game has been Manu vs Bundee but I think that’s not a matchup that Eddie Jones will be too happy to be seeing that often in this game. England want a lot of Manu Tuilagi vs Garry Ringrose in isolation, I think.
The above play was designed to get Te’o in Ringrose’s eyeline for either a one or one or to encourage a pinch in.
This is a picture that England will want to duplicate today. Two successful midfield carries – maybe a bit more gain line this time – but with Slade and Tuilagi still alive on the play with May or Daly outside. Joseph got the ball in the above instance, but it’ll be Slade and his kicking ability this time around, which is a danger in itself. The presence of Te’o was vital to the movement because of the physical threat within his positioning. That edge space is where England will look to bring Tuilagi this time around, especially with the Vunipola brothers and Synckler freeing up some carrying space in the middle of the field. That depth behind the gainline encourages defenders to blitz – especially Andy Farrell coached defenders – and then use their high up position to isolate one on one matchups in space and what England hope end up being physical mismatches. The positioning and workrate of O’Mahony and Van Der Flier – Van Der Flier in particular – will be really important here. There’ll have to be a fair bit of defensive forward planning to ensure that (a) Billy Vunipola is always well covered by a Furlong/Ryan/Healy/Stander combination so that our more mobile flankers are free on that third phase possession.
Here’s another example of how England will structure their attack;
That’s a screen play to Farrell to release Te’o in a bit of disrupted space. The distance from the screen to Te’o (and it’ll be Tuilagi this time around) is to draw Sexton, Aki and Ringrose out of the line for that isolation. Te’o stepped on his own line a little here but Tuilagi is a much more dynamic runner with better timing onto the ball. I’d expect any duplication of this to end up with Tuilagi hinging straight onto Sexton for a bit of “treatment”.
Again, the movement and presence of Van Der Flier will be vital here. If he can stay alive on most defensive plays – and he’s very good at that – I think you’ll see him rack up a tonne of defensive involvements.
England will probably look to pull this one off a scrum with Tuilagi.
A cut back against the grain to isolate Van Der Flier’s track across off the scrum with Tuilagi and Vunipola hitting that space between scrum and first defender. Once that ball gets wide to Slade this time around he’ll be looking to hit Daly/May rather than knock on.
Under The Bomb
Jack Nowell’s performance under Conor Murray’s box kicks in Thomond Park will have given Eddie Jones a lot of food for thought on his positioning for this game but he’s ultimately gone for him on the wing.
I wouldn’t expect Ireland to hit Nowell’s wing that often but I would expect May and Daly to get targeted, May in particular.
From our perspective, I think we’ll see a lot of early English kicking towards Robbie Henshaw, who’s starting at full back for this game. From an attacking perspective, this is a very exciting prospect as it doubles Ireland’s heavy carriers on attacking sequences to compensate for the lack of Leavy/O’Brien from the start while keeping Bundee Aki in the side. Defensively, England will smell an opportunity.
Henshaw’s reaction on transition kicks like this will be important, as will his kicking and chasing ability on the return.
Kearney is incredibly good at being in the right spot for these and making a highly contestable kick that he’ll either claim or usually set a great defensive point on back in the opposition half. Henshaw can certainly carry the ball back on transition – and hurt guys while doing it – but his kicking will be something England will look to pressure.
I think you’ll also see Farrell going for these kinds of kicks quite a bit, at least initially.
Farrell will know that Henshaw is likely to be tracking his movements laterally in the backfield so expect a few probing kick throughs at a slight angle to try and catch Henshaw out laterally if he edges too far over onto Tuilagi’s line, especially if Ireland are defending inside their own 10m line.
They’ll try a few box kicks or up and under from Farrell with May/Nowell getting up on Henshaw to challenge him in the backfield. How Henshaw deals with that initial challenge will be a good indicator for how Ireland will do here.
