Ireland are probably going to win this game.
Hope that’s not a spoiler – or a jinx – but in all likelihood, Ireland should have too much for the USA in the Aviva Stadium this Saturday. The United States come into this game with a lot of momentum, for what it’s worth. They’ve lost one game all year – a comprehensive beating at the hands of the Maori All Blacks a few weeks ago – but have spent most of 2018 collecting wins against a who’s who of Tier 2 and 3. Canada, Chile, Brazil, Uruguay, Russia and Romania (last week) have all fallen to the Eagles alongside more notable wins against an Argentinian XV and weakened Scottish and Samoan sides.
The biggest win for that group has got to be the win over Scotland. Sure, Scotland were down much of their front line squad and missed a kick at the death to win it, but it was good stuff from the United States. It probably won’t be enough to beat this Ireland side but my point is that they shouldn’t be underestimated.
Nobody in the Ireland squad or management will be. Those days are gone and not because there’s a fear that the USA will smash and grab this one but because of the internal competition in the Ireland squad with Tokyo on the horizon.
In a way, the actual opposition tonight is Joe Schmidt’s eyeballs. Like I said before the Italian game, that sounds like a disrespectful way to describe the USA, who’ll be looking to make a statement of their own in this fixture, but how the Irish combinations and individuals perform relative to what it takes to get into Schmidt’s Good Books will be the biggest factor.
If guys are off the ball or starting slow, it’ll hurt those they’re playing alongside and, as a consequence, paint a bad picture in a game expected to be a showcase for Ireland’s second layer. That’s where the pressure rests for this game. Can each individual perform to the level expected to ensure everyone gets the good minutes they’ll have worked all November for?
Let’s have a look at the teams;
The Green Eye Report: USA
An “A” would be considered top class by International standards, a “B” would be considered average by regular test standard, a “C” would be considered poor by test standard and an “E” would be something I’d consider an exploitable weakness.
Set Piece
Offensive Scrummaging – C
Defensive Scrummaging – E
Attacking Lineout – C
Defensive Lineout – C
Offensive Maul – C
Defensive Maul – C
Open Play
Defensive Structure – E
Phase Play Power – C
Attacking Creativity – C
Structured Attack Off Set Piece – C
Structured Defence Off Set Piece – E
Overall Fitness – C
Kicking – C
Back Three Kick Positioning – E
Good, But Relative
The USA are performing well over the past year but this Irish side will be the best they’ve played all year. The Eagles have some decent players and guys who’ll be extra motivated for this game – Paul Mullen and John Quill are both former Munster men who now represent the USA with great pride – but I’d expect Ireland to have too much quality all through the lines for them to resist a handy score for too long.
You can overanalyse a team like the United States in a game like this but, having watched their games this November, I’d be confident enough stating that their primary threat is…
The Counter Jumping of Cam Dolan: The 6’6″ USA #8 is a very athletic counter jumper at the front of the lineout and they tend to use him as a spoiler to set the main target area in the lineout at the middle and back to pressure the opposition’s hooker’s throw.
That sets the table for a second counter-jump in the middle to attack any balls floated over the top. Ireland will have to secure a few front balls early on – Henderson’s calling will be important – and then maul from that point to punish the USA for going into the air too freely.
Much of the USA’s counter-jumping philosophy is designed to avoid maul situations – something you’ll see in a lot of Tier 2 teams that have more than one counter-launch pod. The USA will stay on the ground close to the line, of course, but they’ll tend to go for most opposition throws outside their own 22. The calling will have to be intelligent and reactive to the picture that the USA are giving. If they are jumping a lot at the front with two lifters and a jumper, we have to maul into that space to punish them.
They’re also vulnerable to the same lineout reversal that caught out New Zealand due to their slow lateral movement and tendency to over-compete in the lineout.
Look at how the lifting pod at the front ends up defending 15m of touchline space;
That’s very dangerous against a side with Joey Carbery, Garry Ringrose, Darren Sweetnam and Andrew Conway lurking in the backfield behind a lineout.
On their own throw, the US are pretty decent and like to get ball to the middle and back to help them build mauls. They’ll go quite basic if needs be, but they have a few cycle rotation moves in their arsenal if they need them.
As ever, the positioning of the front lifter – Blue #1 in this instance – is the key to most of these moves and can be tracked if the space between the #4 and #5 is a little too much.
Compare the above movement with this one that has a similar structure;
Do you notice which scheme is set up to move and which one is to pump at the front? The spacing is the key.
Phase Pressure
The USA are a big strong side with ball in hand, but Ireland should have little trouble defending their structure. Most of what the USA do with the ball in hand is based on a Hammer/Hammer/Stretch movement like below.
They’ll take their hard runners and bring them around the corner off #9 until they get a big openside to work off #10. That’s when you’ll see them add some screens and offloads to their play. Stop them close to the ruck on two or three sets and they’ll box kick and contest through their hard running wingers and outside centre.
The strength of Bryce Campbell in the #13 shirt will have to be watched but his lateral speed is something I’d expect Carbery, McCloskey and Ringrose to try to pinch in. Look for Carbery to bounce out of first phase into the midfield to run a line with McCloskey on his shoulder to interest the US midfield before sliding the ball out to Ringrose for a big linebreak if he can get the ball beyond Scully.
If Ireland maintains possession as they did against Italy, there should be a similar end product if the accuracy from halfback is good. The forwards will, I expect, dominate most areas of the set-piece and centre-field collisions. The US structure will begin to disintegrate from phase 5/6 on if the pace and width on the rucks is good enough – gaps will appear around the A position at the ruck and outside C.
