Hello again from Beziers. France is growing on me. My first two days here were… fine. Grand. This is a place for my little girl, almost exclusively. The days are dominated by the pool, then a different pool, then a playground, then it’s somehow only 11 AM, so we have to find more things to do until it’s lunch time and nap time.

Then it’s more pool, dinner, and a kids’ disco, which my little girl has been slowly getting more and more into as the days progress. On Sunday evening, she wouldn’t let go of her mam’s hand while the very French kids club reps tried to get a dance train going. Last night, she was clapping and jumping around with other little girls, while making time to tell us that we — her loving parents, watching her every move — could not dance. Only Leni may dance.

I still can’t escape rugby.

At the playground yesterday, I decided, fuck it, it might be just after midday, but I’m on holiday. I’m going to have a beer. So I did.

We met an Irish couple who had been on the same flight out as us, a few minutes later. You know the craic. Lovely weather. God, it is, yeah. How long are ye out for?

Before long, the talk turns to what do you do? It’s always a weird one to answer. There is no non-wanker way to tell another adult that you’re a podcaster. There just isn’t. Saying that you’re a content creator isn’t any better. It sounds like you’re doing porn. So I say that I work “in rugby”. Then, if they’re not interested in rugby, that’s most people, thankfully, it ends there. If they are interested in rugby and also happen to be Irish and from Munster, it’s a 60/40 toss-up whether they’ve heard of Three Red Kings. This guy, who’d played for Bruff 15 years ago, had heard of Three Red Kings. I became very aware of the open can of Leffe on the picnic table.

It was cool, though. Nice. He told me how stressed he was over the game at the weekend, and how freeing it is to be thinking about a playoff run, rather than worrying about Not Qualifying.

In the last five URC seasons, only five out of sixteen teams have qualified for the playoffs every single time: the Bulls, the Stormers, Glasgow, Leinster and Munster.

In at least three of those qualifications, we faced the threat of missing out on the Champions Cup for the following season during the run-in, with all the financial dread and existential woe about our place in the rugby universe that comes with it.

Yet, every single time, we’ve managed it. I was always confident of qualifying this time, even before the South African tour.

Here’s the basic maths as I’ve been able to determine. The cut-off for eighth place will settle around 52–54 points based on how the season has developed so far. From 39, we need 13–15 more points from six games to be certain. That’s roughly three wins from six, with a bonus point or two. We have eight wins already from twelve games. The idea that we won’t get three more from six — including home games against Ulster and the Lions — requires a level of collapse that, even when I’m awake at 2 am doomscrolling, isn’t realistic.

As it turned out, the cut-line was 54 points, the highest it’s ever been in the URC era, and we ended up with 16 points from the remaining six games, and it’s a good thing too. That said, almost all of the anxiety was due to a late injury crisis that honestly reads as if a hurricane blew through the HPC right after the Ulster game, coupled with Connacht’s run of form in the second half of the season. If you look at the last ten games of the season, Connacht are second in the form table, behind only the Vodacom Bulls. On the same form table, we’re ninth.

But why is the dread so profound?

The obvious answer is the financial impact of missing out on Europe for the following season. As it stands, making the playoffs is grand, but it costs us money to fly to South Africa, pitch up for the guts of a week, play the game and then fly home. We’ll need to bring 25/26 players, plus coaches, plus S&C, one or two other staff, and all the gear required.

We will either do well, or we won’t. The staff and players have been completely liberated by the win over the Lions. Three weeks of suffocating pressure, including a ridiculously tense week before the Lions game — I’ve never seen or heard the likes of the tension being felt in the HPC last week — are like a ton of weight off our shoulders.

Whatever happens from here, Munster feels like they can do it with a fresh slate. Like the season has been reborn.

Missing out on the Champions Cup next season, even in its current depreciated state, regardless of the URC playoffs to come, would be incredibly costly. For a start, your two guaranteed home games, where you’d ideally be drawing close to 20+ thousand people at Thomond Park, and 35+ thousand for Pairc Ui Chaoimh at premium ticket prices with the right opponent, would leave €3m+ on the table. You could not draw the same number of people at the same price point for the Challenge Cup. Even allowing for some of the dud home draws we’ve had in the last few years — Bayonne, Gloucester, Castres — drawing the same level of opponent in the Challenge Cup would be doing well to draw 11/12 thousand. Even drawing a “big name” in the Challenge Cup is something of a poisoned chalice because they only focus on home games. You’d be doing well to get the espoirs.

Ulster are feeling the financial squeeze of having lower-profile European Cup games this season. Sure, walloping a half-interested Racing 92 espoirs selection in Ravenhill was good craic, and convinced the media who only watch them during interpros and on YouTube highlights that all was well up north.

Most clubs can deal with one year in the Challenge Cup, but two years start to become a financial pothole very, very quickly.

The pressure in Ulster this week is likely quite close to what Munster felt last week, with the added draw of a trophy to win. If they lose, the ramifications for Ulster in next season’s round of contracting will be dire.

For Munster, we don’t really have to think about that.

We can look at next season with, very likely, four close to sellout home games in Thomond Park and Pairc Ui Chaoimh, and invest that accordingly in coaching, and one or two signings in the next few months to help avoid existential dread next season.