The Schedule

Chaos

By Tom Savage7 min read

Welcome to the Group of Death.

In a way, it was always going to be the Group of Death because, as you know, it’s usually whatever pool Munster are in during any given season.

So where do we stand after the weekend? Short version: the pool has basically reset into a two-round mini-season. Bath have a tiny edge, but all six teams are live for the top four, and the home R16 slots will almost certainly be decided in Rounds 3–4 by points difference and bonus points rather than simple wins and losses.

Ah. Feels like the old days.

Where the pool actually is now

This is the table after Round 2.

  • Bath – 6 pts, W1 L1, PD +15, 10 tries, 2 TB
  • Castres – 5 pts, W1 L1, PD +13, 7 tries, 1 TB
  • Munster – 5 pts, W1 L1, PD +2, 7 tries, 1 TB
  • Toulon – 5 pts, W1 L1, PD –2, 7 tries, 1 TB
  • Gloucester – 5 pts, W1 L1, PD –8, 4 tries, 1 TB
  • Edinburgh – 5 pts, W1 L1, PD –20, 4 tries, 1 TB

Structural context:

  • Every team is 1–1. There’s one point between first and sixth.
  • No one has a losing bonus point yet – every game has been decided by >7.
  • All six teams have at least one try bonus; Bath have two.
  • The range of points difference is relatively narrow for such a chaotic pool: from +15 (Bath) down to –20 (Edinburgh).

With four-match pools, the top four qualify for the R16, and the top two in each pool get home last-16 ties.

After two rounds, the average team has 5 points; with two games left, the expected “centre” is around 9–10 pts plus whatever bonus points get picked up.

Tie-breakers – why PD and tries now really matter

EPCR’s ranking rules for teams tied on points in this format are:

  1. Number of matches won
  2. Points difference
  3. Total points scored
  4. Aggregate points in games between tied teams
  5. “Countback” on matches won

With everyone on one win each right now, the next split will be PD and points for. That is why Bath (+15) and Castres (+13) are currently in better shape than Munster (+2) and especially Gloucester/Edinburgh (–8/–20).

Our 31–3 over Gloucester has effectively dragged us from a –26 anchor to the middle of the PD pack and, crucially, given us a five-try game and a TB to keep pace on the “points for/tries for” tie-breaks.

The run-in: fixtures and structural pressure

From the published fixture list:

Round 3

  • Edinburgh v Gloucester
  • Castres v Bath
  • Toulon v Munster

Round 4

  • Bath v Edinburgh
  • Munster v Castres
  • Gloucester v Toulon

Key structural points:

Two direct “top-end” collisions involving Munster:

  • Toulon (A) in R3
  • Castres (H) in R4
    These are classic 8-point swings in the context of the pool: one advances while a direct rival stands still.

Castres v Bath in R3 guarantees at least one of the current PD leaders loses again — that prevents any runaway leader and keeps the pool compressed.

Edinburgh v Gloucester in R3 is effectively an elimination game for the home-tie conversation. The loser will be 1–2 and likely chasing from too far back on PD. At this point, Munster need Edinburgh to win that game so they’re in live contention against Bath in the last round.

The final weekend is three intra-tier games: two of Bath / Castres / Munster / Toulon will be beating each other, while the others try to take five pointers off teams currently in negative PD. It screams “messy tiebreak finish.”

What does this mean for Munster?

a) Position now

We’ve erased most of the Bath damage. From 0 pts / –26 to 5 pts / +2 in one go is almost the best-case Round 2 outcome.

We’re level on points with Castres/Toulon/Gloucester/Edinburgh and only one behind Bath.

We still trail Bath/Castres on PD, but we play Castres head-to-head in Round 4, which is a chance to jump them directly in the wins and PD columns. Ideally, Castres will beat Bath at home in Round 3 to leave it as a straight shootout.

b) Likely qualification thresholds

Looking at the last two 6-team pool seasons:

Runners-up have qualified with as few as 11 points (La Rochelle, Clermont-type pools) and more often 12–15.

Fourth place has typically been 9–10 points.

Given how evenly matched and cannibalistic this pool already looks, this one is more likely to be at the lower end of those ranges:

Top 4 (R16 berth): 9 points should be very close to enough; 10 almost certainly is.

Top 2 (home R16): you’re probably looking at 12–14 points in this specific pool.

c) Munster scenario map

Starting from 5 pts:

Win both remaining games (no bonus):

  • Finish on 13 pts (3 wins, 1 loss).
  • That’s almost certainly top 2 in this pool and at worst a high-seeded 3rd if something freakish happens elsewhere. From a Munster POV, that’s the clear home-tie target.

Win both with one or two TBs:

  • Finish 14–15 pts.
  • In practice, that probably wins the pool, given that others are already taking lumps off each other.

One win, one loss, no extra BPs:

  • Finish on 9 pts.
  • Very likely qualifies for the R16 (top 4), but home tie becomes doubtful; we’d be relying on this pool remaining incredibly scrappy so that only one team gets beyond 12.

One win with a TB and one loss (no LB):

  • Finish on 10 pts.
  • Strong position for 3rd, outside chance of 2nd depending on points difference and how Bath/Castres/Toulon trade results.

Anything worse than 1–1 from here (e.g. 0–2 with bonus junk):

  • We’re probably fighting to sneak 4th or fall into the Challenge Cup. Mathematically not dead, but the ceiling drops sharply.

So from Munster’s point of view:

Minimum realistic aim: 1 win + some kind of bonus to land in the 9–10 band and get into the R16.

Serious home-tie aim: 2 wins, and ideally at least one TB to get into the 14-ish range.

How the other teams look

Bath (6 pts, +15, 10 tries, 2 TB)

  • Still fractionally best-placed: they already have two TBs and the best PD.
  • Run-in: Castres (A), Edinburgh (H).
    • If they split those (beat Edinburgh, lose in Castres) with a TB somewhere, they probably finish around 11–12 points – good enough for top 2 unless Munster or Castres run the table.
  • Risk: if they lose in Castres without a TB and then somehow slip up v Edinburgh, they drop into the 8–9 range and could be dragged into The Mess.

Castres (5 pts, +13, 7 tries)

  • Their 33–0 over Edinburgh has rocketed them up PD and try counts.
  • Run-in: Bath (H), Munster (A) – probably the hardest remaining schedule of anyone.
  • Upside: if they hold serve at home v Bath and then nick something in Thomond Park, they can win the pool.
  • Downside: 0–2 is very much on the table, which would leave them stuck on 5–7 points and almost certainly out. Their big focus with the pool is Bath, and then very much “see what happens”.

Toulon (5 pts, –2, 7 tries)

  • Classic “live outsider”: big home win over Bath, but PD still slightly negative after the Edinburgh defeat.
  • Run-in: Munster (H), Gloucester (A) – two very winnable games on paper if they are going full strength.
  • If they beat Munster at Mayol, they’ll be at 9–10 going to Kingsholm and in strong shape for the top 2.

Gloucester (5 pts, –8, 4 tries)

  • Profile is distorted by two extreme games:
    • Big win over Castres in R1.
    • Heavy loss to Munster in Cork in R2.
  • Run-in: Edinburgh (A), Toulon (H).
  • R3 in Edinburgh is effectively an eliminator for their home-tie hopes. Lose that, and they’re almost locked into scrapping for 4th/5th.

Edinburgh (5 pts, –20, 4 tries)

  • The only side with seriously bad PD after taking a hiding in Castres.
  • Run-in: Gloucester (H), Bath (A).
    • They have to beat Gloucester with a BP to repair their numbers.
    • A result at The Rec would be a bonus; on current evidence, they’re more likely to end in the 8–9 bracket and be on the bubble for 4th.

Big-picture view of the pool

This is the chaos pool of the competition: every team has already shown a high ceiling and a low floor.

Because all six have at least one try bonus and none have losing bonuses, the bonus-point strategy will be decisive:

  • Can you keep scoring four tries in wins?
  • Can you finally engineer a losing bonus if you’re on the wrong side of a game?

Points difference and volume of scoring are no longer cosmetic — they are live tie-breakers that could decide who gets to play at home in April and who drops into the Challenge Cup.

From Munster’s vantage point, the group has gone from “on the brink after Bath” to being right back in the centre of the board with a clear, if demanding, route to a home knockout.

  • Beat Toulon away and Castres at home, and we are almost certainly top two.
  • Slip once, and we’re into a knife-edge PD/tiebreak fight with Bath, Castres and Toulon for those home slots, with Gloucester and Edinburgh lurking as spoilers.

So it’s simple. We’re on five points. We need at least six or seven, ideally nine or ten, points from the next two games to be as sure as we can be of finishing in the top two. If we win the next two games, we’re good. If we get a losing bonus point in Toulon — with a four-try bonus — we’ll be good as long as Castres can spoil Bath and Edinburgh can go into Round 4 as live competitors, and then we beat Castres with a bonus point in Limerick.

Complicated! But it’s engaging, and we’re right in the thick of it, where we want to be.