The Schedule

It’s that time again.

Europe. The ~~Heineken~~ ~~European~~ Investec Champions Cup. Our history with this competition needs no introduction, so I won’t bother. It’s deeply important, it defines seasons, and it’s never something to just get out of the way.

Munster’s URC campaign can be good or bad, but, and this applies to Leinster too, a successful season is always defined by how we handle Europe. In that context, Munster’s last few seasons have been mostly disappointing, albeit with some noted high points.

If you’ll forgive some of the self-aggrandising language in that La Rochelle piece, I do feel like it’s worth repeating.

The most dangerous thing in European rugby is Munster starting another Big Story.

Munster Rugby has always been at its best when there’s a buzzy, floaty feel around the club and its fanbase. That feeling of the second pint hitting the spot, the craic being exactly at the right pitch and getting ready to call for the third pint. When Munster are on the chase, it’s intoxicating. Is it a bandwagon? Absolutely. But it’s all the better for it. The thousands of people who swarmed La Rochelle since Thursday night left a lasting impression on the town, the La Rochelle supporters and the tournament itself. That impression?

That this is what this tournament looks like at its best.

Munster haven’t won the European Cup since 2008. Seventeen years ago. It’s nineteen years since we won our first, and it’ll be twenty by the time this year’s final rolls around. By any modern metric, Munster should be a total sideshow in the Champions Cup.

But somehow, we never are.

Munster and the European Cup, or whatever you want to call it, are intrinsically linked. It doesn’t seem to matter that we haven’t managed to make it past a quarter-final since 2018/19.

Maybe it’s because everything that happened pre-internet omnipresence remains stuck in the mind. Maybe it’s that our collective consciousness sees that timeframe as more permanent, compared to the instant disposability of modern events. A trophy win these days is content; anything before that word meant what it means now is history.

But how close are we to adding a third European Cup to that history?

In reality, I think it depends. On injury. On squad development. On how we do in the pool stages. On lots of things.

I think that, as it stands, we’d be doing incredibly well to make a semi-final this year, but if we can somehow pick up a home run to the quarter-final stage… you’d never know. But that is something that has eluded us for several years at this point, and a very sticky pool stage stands between us and that accelerator to the peak of the knock-out stages.

It’s also worth noting that home knock-out games are key financial drivers of next season’s challenge. The more home games you can earn and then win — even with the competition and opposition split — the better placed you are to use that financial buffer to strengthen your squad.

I suppose the real question is: how close are we to Leinster, UBB, Toulouse and, arguably, Bath and Northampton this season? Last season, we were nowhere close. This season? It’s a little more fluid — but we’ll get a preview on Saturday at the Rec when we tangle with Thomas Du Toit, Finn Russell, Sam Underhill, Guy Pepper and Ted Hill, just to name a few.

But that brings the next question a little closer — what exactly do we need over the next two months?

What does it usually take to qualify?

Using the four pool-stage seasons from the last four seasons (21–22 through 24–25), I was able to get the following data:

The lowest points total that still qualified for the Champions Cup knockouts (i.e. the 16th seed / 8th place in each 2-pool season, or 4th place in a pool in the 4-pool seasons).
The average points across all 16 teams that qualified each year.

Minimum points needed to qualify

2021–22 – 2 pools of 12, top 8 from each to last-16.
- Pool A 8th: Clermont on 8 pts.
- Pool B 8th: Stade Français on 7 pts (Cardiff also on 7 but lost the tiebreak).
- Effective threshold: 7 points.
2022–23 – same 2-pool format.
- Pool A 8th: Gloucester on 9 pts.
- Pool B 8th: Ulster on 7 pts.
- Effective threshold: 7 points.
2023–24 – 4 pools of 6, top 4 from each pool.
- Lowest qualifying totals by pool: 10 (Saracens), 8 (Racing 92), 9 (Munster), 9 (Leicester).
- Effective threshold: 8 points.
2024–25 – same 4-pool format.
- The 16th seed (Ulster) came out of Pool 1 with 5 points. The other 4th-placed teams had 9–11 points.
- Effective threshold: 5 points (big outlier).

So, across the four seasons, the lowest qualifier each year was on:

7, 7, 8, 5 → average = 6.75 points

So, in reality, it’s around 7 points to sneak into the last-16, noting that the 5-point Ulster year is something of a freak occurrence.

Average points of all qualifiers

I also averaged the pool points of all 16 knock-out qualifiers in each season:

2021–22 qualifiers: 215 pts total → 13.44 pts per team.
2022–23 qualifiers: 216 pts total → 13.5 pts per team.
2023–24 qualifiers: 216 pts total → 13.5 pts per team.
2024–25 qualifiers: 202 pts total → 12.63 pts per team.

Across all four pool stages:

Total 849 pts / 64 teams → 13.27 pts per qualifier.

So the typical qualifier profile is roughly:

~13 points from 4 games.
The true floor is usually 7–8 points; 5 was a one-off.

Here’s a little table to see it all together:

Season	Format	Lowest qualifier	Avg points (all 16 qualifiers)
2021–22	2 pools of 12	7 pts	13.44 pts
2022–23	2 pools of 12	7 pts	13.50 pts
2023–24	4 pools of 6	8 pts	13.50 pts
2024–25	4 pools of 6	5 pts (Ulster)	12.63 pts

What does a home knockout usually cost?

A home last-16 has been tied to being a top seed, i.e.:

21–22 & 22–23 (2-pool): top 4 in each pool had home advantage.
23–24 & 24–25 (4-pool): top 2 in each pool (seeds 1–8 overall) had home last-16.

If you look at the pool points for those “home” teams:

Average for all home R16 teams over the four years = 16.44 pts.
In the 4-pool era alone (23–24 & 24–25), those teams averaged ~15.9 pts.
The lowest points total for any home R16 team in the 4-pool era was 11 points (Glasgow in 24–25).

If we just look at second-placed teams in the 4-pool format (the lowest “home” seeding band):

2023–24 seconds: 15, 15, 13, 14 → avg 14.25 pts.
2024–25 seconds: 19, 11, 14, 12 → avg 14 pts.

So:

Second place in a pool has averaged ~14.1 points.
The weakest home side in the 4-pool era had 11 points; everyone else was 13+.

Rule of thumb for the current format:

Home last-16 “target”: 14–16 points.
Absolute floor historically: 11 points.

With 4 games in the pool, those totals look like:

16 pts → 4 wins with no bonus points, or 3 wins + 3–4 BPs.
14–15 pts → usually 3–1 with at least two bonus points (try or losing).
11–12 pts → something like 3 wins, no BPs (12) or 2 wins with a big stack of BPs. Very pool-dependent.

Munster’s route to a home knockout in 2025–26

Format & pool context

For 2025–26, the format is the same “4 pools of 6” structure again:

24 teams, 4 pools of 6.
Each team plays four games against the four clubs from other leagues in their pool (so URC teams don’t meet their URC pool mates).
Top 4 in each pool → Champions Cup last-16.
Top 2 in each pool get home advantage in the round of 16.

Munster are in Pool 2 with:

Bath (Prem champions / CC winners entry),
Castres,
Edinburgh (URC – won’t play Munster),
Gloucester,
Toulon.

This is likely to mean that the pool totals for this one will be very tight. If you’re drawn into a pool with a URC South African team, that can often mean dropped points for the English and French teams that have to negotiate that travel on a week’s notice, which, combined with the South African sides often rotating for their trips north, can distort the points totals required for a home seeding.

We have to factor that in to our calculations.

Our four games are;

Home v Gloucester and Castres.
Away v Bath and Toulon.

What do Munster’s recent numbers say?

Just for context, Munster’s pool hauls in the last four years:

2021–22: 18 pts (3rd in Pool B) – comfortably home side in the 2-leg R16.
2022–23: 10 pts (6th in Pool B) – away in the last-16.
2023–24: 9 pts (4th in Pool C) – squeezed through, away in the last-16.
2024–25: 12 pts (3rd in Pool 3) – solid qualifier, still away in the last-16.

So in the 4-pool era so far, we have been a typical qualifier (9–12 pts), but a couple of points short of the “home seed” band (~14+).

A realistic route to a home last-16

Given:

Average second-place haul in 4-pool era: ~14 pts.
Lowest ever home side: 11 pts.
Munster’s recent returns: 9 and 12 pts.

Our possible routes look like this, with the obvious proviso that winning all four games is the obvious best possible route, however unlikely that might be.

1. Gold standard route (almost guarantees home knockout)

Record: 3 wins, 1 loss.
Bonus points: At least two (e.g. one 4-try BP win at home + one losing BP away):
- 3 wins = 12 pts
- 2 BPs = 14 pts

That puts Munster right on the historical average for second place and in line with nearly every home-tie team in the last four seasons.

In practical terms:

Win both home games (Gloucester and Castres) — and ideally with at least one try bonus.
Split the away fixtures: win one, chase at least a losing BP in the other if we can’t get the result.

2. Safe-ish route (depends on how the pool cannibalises itself)

Record: 3 wins, 1 loss with fewer BPs, or 2 wins, 2 losses with a lot of BPs.

Examples:

3 wins, no BPs = 12 pts.
- That’s enough to qualify comfortably, but historically it’s borderline for a home tie – it got some teams there, but not all.
2 wins, 2 losses, but you pick up 3 or 4 bonus points (say 2 try BPs + 2 losing BPs) = 8 + 4 = 12 pts.

This puts Munster into that 11–12 point band that has only just scraped into home-tie territory once in four years. It might work if Pool 2 is carnage and everyone is beating everyone else, but you’re relying on results elsewhere. This is where Bath’s two trips to France might play to our favour. The English champions are set to be an absolute nightmare this season, but they play Toulon and Castres in France, which reduces the likelihood that either of those teams will throw their hat at those games the week of.

Depending on the schedule and the context of the first two games, French sides will often send the espoirs, the chef and the mascot to away games, but they almost always pitch up at home, regardless of the context.

There’s a route for us there, especially with our games against Toulon and Castres happening after Christmas, when injuries and domestic concerns can often dictate the strength of selection for a team like Castres, and perhaps Toulon.

3. Risky/Probably Away Tie Scenario

Record: 2–2 with 0–2 BPs (10–11 pts).

Historically, that gets us into the last-16, but we’re almost certainly 3rd or 4th in the pool, i.e. away last-16. We’d need a very strange distribution of results to get top-two with ≤11 pts. Not impossible by any means, and largely dictated by how Edinburgh do against Bath in the Rec in January, and how Gloucester are shaping up at home against Toulon.

Over the last four Champions Cup pool stages, qualifiers have averaged just over 13 points from four games, with the cut-off usually sitting around 7–8 points, and one outlier year where Ulster slipped in on five.

In the current 4-pool format, home last-16 sides average almost 16 points, and no one has hosted a knock-out with fewer than 11 points; second place in a pool has averaged about 14 points.

Our recent returns in the same format — 9 and 12 points — are bang on the qualifier average but a couple of scores shy of home-tie territory.

In 2025–26, with Bath, Castres, Gloucester and Toulon on our dance card, a realistic target for us to bring the last-16 to Thomond/Páirc Uí Chaoimh is three wins from four with at least two bonus points, landing us in that 14–16 point bracket where home advantage has lived in recent seasons.

The Non-Negotiables

With Bath and Toulon both away, the home games become non-negotiable if we want a home knockout:

Gloucester at Páirc Uí Chaoimh – must win, and an ideal TBP opportunity if the game breaks open.
Castres at Thomond Park – must win, same logic: target 5, accept 4.

If we win both home games without bonus points, that’s 8 points. History says that 8 alone is miles off a home tie — good enough to qualify, but we’d be living in the 3rd/4th-in-pool band, i.e. away last-16.

What we probably have to do away from home

Target band: 14–16 points

Work backwards from that with this fixture split.

Let’s label them:

B(A) – Bath away
T(A) – Toulon away
G(H) – Gloucester home
C(H) – Castres home

Scenario 1 – The “proper home seed” route (very strong)

Beat Gloucester (H) – 4 pts
Beat Castres (H) – 4–5 pts
Win one of Bath/Toulon away – 4 pts
Pick up at least one bonus somewhere (try BP or losing BP).

Example:

G(H): win, no BP → 4
C(H): win + TBP → 5
B(A): win → 4
T(A): loss + losing BP → 1

Total = 14 points.

Any variant of:

2 home wins + 1 away win + 1–2 bonuses = 14–15 points

…puts us right on the historic average for second place and firmly in home-tie territory. Ideally, we’d win both home games with a try-bonus point, and then try to shock Bath or Toulon. Two losing bonus points in both of those games is unlikely, but would also do the job.

Long story short, one away win plus two bonus points home wins would see us comfortably earning a home round of 16 game.

Scenario 2 – Slightly undercooked (might need pool chaos)

Win both home games (no TBP) = 8 pts
Win one away = 4 pts
Snag one losing BP in the remaining away defeat = 1 pt

Total = 13 points.

13 has sometimes been enough for a home tie, but not always. With this H/A split, 13 is “probably qualify, maybe home if the pool cannibalises itself” territory. We’d be relying on Bath/Toulon dropping games away to Castres/Gloucester/Edinburgh, and no one clearing into the 16–18 range.

Scenario 3 – Two home wins, no away wins

Here’s where the split really bites.

G(H): win + TBP → 5
C(H): win + TBP → 5
B(A): loss, no BP → 0
T(A): loss, no BP → 0

Total = 10 points.

Even if we soften it:

One TBP at home + one normal home win → 9
Two losing BPs away → +2

Total = 11 points.

Historically, 11 points is the absolute floor for anyone who has hosted a last-16 in the new format, and that was in a very messy pool year. Most second-place teams have needed ~14.

So with zero away wins, we’re basically banking on a complete car crash of a pool where everyone beats everyone, and no one gets out of the low teens. Possible, but not something you’d plan around.

Practical “job list” for us in this pool

Putting it all together with the actual schedule as it stands right now:

Ring-fence home games as 4–5 pointers.
- Gloucester at Páirc Uí Chaoimh: this almost has to be treated as a bonus-point hunt if the game state allows.
- Castres at Thomond Park: similar – this is the game that might push you from 13 → 14/15.
Aim for at least one away win.
- Stiff, but numerically, one 4-pointer away to Bath or Toulon is what turns a standard 11–12 point campaign into a likely home seed.
- If the away wins don’t come, you need BPs in every loss and big margins at home.
Working target: 3–1 record with 2+ bonus points.
- Any combination of those fixtures that lands us on 14+ points is the sweet spot, and with Bath and Toulon away, that almost always means:
  - 2 home wins, and
  - at least 1 away win and/or multiple BPs.

The context of this might change if, say, Toulon lose their first two games and decide that qualification is worthless and not worth chasing. That will distort the group, as will a similar return for Castres. However, with Bath and Toulon both away, a home last-16 for us probably means winning both home games, nicking at least one of the trips, and stacking enough bonus points to land in the 14–16 point band where home seeds have lived in every year of the new format.

Not impossible, by any means, but the job starts this weekend.