The Red Eye

URC 5 :: Connacht (h) - Round 5

By Tom Savage13 min read

The media have spoken more about Munster being caught up in the post-Croke Park euphoria than anyone inside Munster.

That game was parked on Monday morning. I’m not sure what people expected. Lads stopping mid-drill to whip out their phones to look at Ethan Coughlan’s intercept? It was the usual stuff — wishful thinking mixed with narrative building, mixed with conflating fans being happy with the biggest win over a loaded Leinster team in Dublin since before Instagram existed with the organisation as a whole.

The reality is that the coaches and squad snapped back into gear early because the obvious threat is looming on Saturday. Connacht. Thomond Park. They’ve had a bad start and will be talking all week about bringing Munster back down to earth this weekend. If you’re Stuart Lancaster, what do you think your messaging would be this week? What would your analysis show you? As I said, it’s pretty obvious.

Last season, the margin of victory over Connacht averaged four points across both games, but even that doesn’t tell the whole story; we came from behind to beat them in Thomond Park on the opening day of the season, and it took a TMO overturned try and a late stolen lineout on our 5m line to beat them in Castlebar.

The threat in this game isn’t Munster still thinking about Leinster — again, a bit of wishful thinking from some, there — it’s Connacht themselves.

Munster Rugby: 15. Shane Daly; 14. Diarmuid Kilgallen, 13. Dan Kelly, 12. Alex Nankivell, 11. Thaakir Abrahams; 10. JJ Hanrahan, 9. Ethan Coughlan; 1. Michael Milne, 2. Lee Barron, 3. John Ryan; 4. Jean Kleyn, 5. Fineen Wycherley; 6. Jack O’Donoghue (c), 7. John Hodnett, 8. Gavin Coombes.

Replacements: 16. Niall Scannell, 17. Jeremy Loughman, 18. Ronan Foxe, 19. Evan O’Connell, 20. Ruadhan Quinn, 21. Jake O’Riordan, 22. Tony Butler, 23. Shay McCarthy.

Connacht Rugby: 15. Harry West; 14. Byron Ralston, 13. Hugh Gavin, 12. Cathal Forde, 11. Finn Treacy; 10. Josh Ioane, 9. Ben Murphy; 1. Jordan Duggan, 2. Dave Heffernan, 3. Sam Illo; 4. Joe Joyce, 5. Darragh Murray; 6. Josh Murphy, 7. Paul Boyle (c), 8. Sean Jansen

Replacements: 16. Dylan Tierney-Martin, 17. Peter Dooley, 18. Fiachna Barrett, 19. Niall Murray, 20. David O’Connor, 21. Matthew Devine, 22. Sean Naughton, 23. Seán O’Brien

Against Connacht, the game almost always boils down to the breakdown battle.

You might say that every single game boils down to that — and you’d be right — but when Munster play Connacht, there is a direct correlation between their success at the attacking breakdown and them winning. Go back to that opening round game of last season, and you’ll see 16 turnovers for Munster mixed with four forced breakdown turnovers from Connacht.

They could and should have won that game, off the back of consistent kicking — not high volume then, but it will be here — mixed with a fantastic defensive lineout performance. They will try to duplicate that here and replicate a mixture of what Cardiff and Edinburgh brought a few weeks ago.

Kick at volume, contest heavily at the lineout, make the breakdown a war zone, play on the back foot.

To combat this, we’ll need to vary our kicking game, yes, but we’ll also need to bring the level of attacking breakdown work that we saw last week against Leinster, albeit with more ruck volume than we saw in that game.

When I assess how that goes, I like to use my ORW scoring system on the €10 tier to see how the team stacks up with the opponent we’re facing and the conditions we’re likely to see. Now, the weather is meant to be quite greasy for this one, so I don’t expect Munster to crack 100+ rucks unless something has gone wrong, but ultimately this game will come down to how we execute our tight phase play around Connacht’s 10m line and the halfway.

Quick baseline (Munster 2025/26 so far)

Trajectory: ORW/Act 2.00 → 1.93 → 1.97 → 2.52; Actions/Ruck 2.36 → 2.31 → 3.39 → 4.79; ORW/Ruck 4.71 → 4.48 → 6.69 → 12.07.

Translation for those not familiar with ORW scoring: work per possession is rising, and R4 against Leinster showed a rare Dominant-led mix that supercharged efficiency, albeit on low ruck numbers total. Connacht will almost certainly look to play on the back foot here, as we did against Leinster, and very similar to how Cardiff approached their fixture in Thomond Park a few weeks ago.

At home, we both want and need to take the initiative when it comes to dictating the flow of the game, so I expect we’re going to play more with the ball in hand than we did in Dublin at the weekend. I would also posit that Hanrahan isn’t a natural off-ball #10 as he’s a weaker defender than Crowley in almost every facet — that alone would give me pause when it comes to how we approach this game against a side who will be depleted, but who do have weapons they can utilise as effective counter-punchers.

How this XV stacks up (by unit)

Front row – Milne, Lee Barron, John Ryan

Upside: All three have posted high ORW per Action in recent games; Milne & Barron were both ~2.35–2.45/act last week, and Ryan has been a strong second-man presence when starting or off the bench.

What it means: Expect a low-inefficiency, high-conversion front row. If they reproduce last week’s performance, Munster can keep Dominant% above the 25–30% mark of total rucks without bloating Guard% actions. Guard actions aren’t bad by any m

Locks – Kleyn, Fineen Wycherley

Profile: Kleyn is a proven volume anchor (led the team with 40+ ORW in R2); Fineen has been efficient (~2.4/act) and tidy on error.

What it means: You get count + quality here — ideal for sustaining long possessions and generating the “+3s” that lift ORW per Action and directly translate into linebreaks. That’s the aim here; good ORW scoring creates linebreaks.

Back row – O’Donoghue (C), Hodnett, Coombes

O’Donoghue: just came off a ledger-leading ORW vs Leinster; he’s your repeat-action engine.

Coombes: consistent H2 spikes (big lift in R3) — brings dominant displacement in traffic.

Hodnett: typically a high-motor cleaner/jackler; in ORW terms, that usually translates to steady Guard with timely Dominants.

What it means: This trio should carry the bulk of total actions with Ineff% kept down — the single biggest predictor of ORW/Ruck. Look for Coombes and Hodnett to take on a lot of carrying load.

Midfield – Dan Kelly, Alex Nankivell

Kelly: At 12/13, recently showed busy interior work with 2.3–2.4/act efficiency when our ruck volume increased.

Nankivell has posted 2.1–2.2 per action earlier; reliable at turning first/second rucks into quick ball, as well as being a punchy carrier himself.

What it means: Expect clean early rucks off strike plays; they help maintain a Dominant-leaning mix rather than defaulting to pure Guard.

Back Three – Shane Daly; Diarmuid Kilgallen, Thaakir Abrahams

Daly gave solid Guard/clean returns vs Leinster (efficient, low error).

Kilgallen & Abrahams likely bring kicking-return guard work and edge cleans; if Munster win middle-third collisions, their ruck load stays manageable. The key is to win dominant rucks centrally to open up Kilgallen and Abrahams for attacking outside shoulder space.

What to target

Connacht’s R1 attack LBR was low (2 LBs on 117 rucks), which generally pairs with slower ball and more contest. The simplest path for Munster:

Keep Ineffective ≤ 3% (R4 was ~1.4%).

Hold Dominant% ≥ 25–30% (doesn’t need to be last week’s 60% to win the contest).

Actions/Ruck ≥ 3.5 (R3–R4 range) without over-guarding.

ORW/Act ≥ 2.10 → usually enough to keep ORW/Ruck in the 7–9+ zone that tilts territory/pressure into try scoring.

Likely ORW drivers (by share): O’Donoghue, Coombes, Kleyn, Milne, Lee Barron, Fineen; with Kelly/Nankivell as the tempo keepers and Daly/Kilgallen/Abrahams covering the edge Guards.

Risks & Watch-Items

Over-guarding the middle: If Guard% creeps back into the 70%+ zone (R1–R3 profile), ORW per Action (the literal quality of our ruck entries) will fall.

Cue: go heavy for Dominant cleans on scripted punch carries (Coombes/Kleyn/Milne) to speed up the play.

Kick-return rucks: Connacht can load up the contest after long kicks; ensure the first support is punctual (Kelly/Nankivell) to avoid cheap “Ineffectives” that lead to a loss of field position/penalty ladders for Connacht.

Penalty discipline at entry rucks: Each Ineffective a potential penalty or turnover against Connacht, and they add up quickly against a team who are going to try and counter-punch us here.

This Munster XV is built for a high-volume, low-error platform: if the pack keeps Ineff ≤ 3% and the midfield converts early rucks into Dominant rather than Guard, we should land in the scoring we managed during R3–R4, which is more than enough to squeeze Connacht’s tempo and field position.

Against Leinster and Edinburgh — two stylistically similar teams — our biggest issue was penalty ladders up the field through the scrum. Both Leinster and Edinburgh have really dominant scrums, both top ten in the world last season for scrums won via penalty. Edinburgh, in particular, were able to weaponise a really high-volume kicking game in Virgin Media Park through their scrum on both sides of the ball. Connacht, at least paper, does not have the same scrum weapons available to them. They are more of a quick strike on their put-in, survive on ours type of team.

It’s a bit difficult to get a full read of what they’re about under Lancaster at this point — they’ve only played three games in the URC to date — but there are a few trends we can look at.

Here’s my Red Eye data slate on Connacht this season, with reference to last season too, for balance.

Connacht: full suite (Rounds 1–4 + 24/25 baselines)

Scorezone (22m) & Net Efficiency

  • Entries (FOR): 10 → 11 → 7 (avg 9.3/game).

  • Points per entry (PPE, FOR): 2.6 → 0.7 → 3.4 (avg 2.05).

  • Entries (AGAINST): 11 → 9 → 6 (avg 8.7/game).

  • PPE (AGAINST): 1.3 → 1.5 → 4.1 (avg 2.02).

  • Net PPE (3-game): +0.04 (virtually even). Big swings game-to-game:

    • G1: +1.3 (won conversion battle)

    • G2: −0.8 (own red-zone issues)

    • G3: −0.7 (leaky defence despite few entries conceded)

Connacht generate enough entries, but conversion is volatile; defence can crater (G3) even when they keep entries down.

Possession, Ruck Speed & Carry Profile

  • Rucks won (FOR): 117 → 125 → 139 (avg 127/game). Opp avg 90.

  • Weighted ruck-speed split (FOR): 0–3s 58.8% | 3–6s 27.8% | 6+s 13.4%.

  • Carries & post-contact: 142/241m, 154/342m, 170/261m → 466 carries, 844 Post Contact Metres, 1.81 PCM/carry overall.

  • Linebreaks: 2 → 7 → 7 (total 16) — even with opponents (16).

They’re happy to play long chains and win contact often enough to keep the ball alive. When slow-ruck share >15%, output wobbles.

Kicking Game

  • K:P ratios: 1:7 → 1:4.6 → 1:6.9 (sits in 1:5–1:7 band, but they can dial up contest/territory).

  • Total kicks: 26, 39, 30 (opp: 23, 42, 28).

Their kicking is adaptive rather than high-volume by default. They’ll shift to territory if phase-ball stalls. I expect them to play a high-volume kicking game here, though.

Set-Piece

This season (R1–4, weighted):

  • Scrum: 6@100%, 12@90%, 8@71% → 86.5%. (Opp 91.3%)

  • Lineout: 12@92%, 14@57%, 10@100% → 80.6%. (Opp 89.1%)

  • Restarts received: 100% across all three.

Last season (2024/25 Data):

  • Lineout: 91.4% (#1), throw map front-biased (~51% front).

  • Scrum: 88.3%; wins via penalty ~16%, losses via penalty ~8%.

  • Maul: Win 86.8%, ~9.2 m/game, 0.28 maul tries/game (threat to progress, sure, not a pure try-machine). They tend to bounce out of mauls quite a bit, like every Irish team last season bar Ulster.

Lineout was elite last season; this year it’s been boom–bust (57% → 100%). Scrum dipped badly against the Bulls (71%). There’s real leverage here if we can get after them, especially with Buckley injured.

Discipline & Turnovers

  • Penalties conceded: 14 + 10 + 9 = 33 (opp 23) → −10 differential; ~11/game.

  • Turnovers (own): Lost 8/14/11; Won 6/7/5 → net −15 across 3.

Penalty load is a problem; Connacht’s turnover count climbs with their phase length.

Last-season try origins 

  • Try origins (FOR): 56% set-piece, 16% kick return, 9% turnovers.

  • 1st-phase tries: 26%; own-half tries: 26%.

A lot begins from structured ball and kick-return lanes; less from jackal chaos. Lancaster teams tend to kick turnovers back, so pressure will fall on Ioane to make good system reads here; we have to pressure his instincts.

What actually hurts you

  1. Structured starts: When the lineout hums, they produce a quick 1–2-phase strike (and will threaten off the maul as a launch, not just for points). We might look to contest heavily on their throws initially, given the players they’re missing and some volatility on that set piece so far this season.

  2. Kick-return punch: They’re comfortable turning loose kicks into controlled possession or immediate width; last season’s Kick Return share backs it up and parts of their game against Cardiff, where they faced a lot of kicks themselves.

  3. Phase stamina: High ruck counts and decent Post Carry Metres mean they’ll keep asking questions until you infringe.

Where they’re vulnerable

  1. Lineout reliability: 80.6% this year vs 91.4% last year — contest the front lane (their comfort zone) and the caller’s timing. Keep changing the picture (front jump, mid poach, late-lifter lanes).

  2. Scrum drop-offs: Bulls exposed them (71%). Nudge for penalties, keep it in, hurt them on the second shove and kick to the 22.

  3. Red-zone defence: G3 conceded 4.1 PPE on only six entries — spacing/comms under stress. Decoy maul then play short through 10–12 or backdoor to the edge.

  4. Discipline under pressure: −10 penalties across three. Patient territory will pay — especially after long defensive sequences.

  5. Slow-ball sensitivity: When 6+% rises into mid-teens, their attack blunts, like everyone else, but you can force that by overwhelming them physically through strong counter-ruck action. Flood the guard/tip channels to force extra cleaners.

My Plan for Connacht

1) Set-piece Pressure as the primary lever

  • Lineout: Kleyn/Wycherley to crowd the front early; mix mirror looks and late movement. Even if you don’t steal, mess with the lift/timing to pull out their 1st-phase teeth, especially the traffic they want to send at Hanrahan.

  • Scrum: Ryan/Milne to keep it on for penalties; Milne on Illo is the big matchup advantage. Those penalties will be there on our put-in and theirs, depending on Piardi’s read, of course. He rewards forward movement, first and foremost, so get Milne in and up on Illo on the first two scrums.

2) Breakdown KPIs

  • Targets: Hold them <60% fast ruck and push >15% slow (their season split is ~59/28/13).

  • Method: Hodnett chops; Coombes/Kleyn through the ball; O’Donoghue to delay the roll. Don’t over-jackal; focus on dominant clean denial and bodies past the ball to sap their cleaners. Counter ruck on Duggan and Murray.

3) Kick Strategy

  • From between the 10s: contest few, pin more. Avoid long hangs into connected back-three; go long to grass or long to 5m touch.

  • Exploit their kick return threat by varying length & angle — make their returners turn. Kilgallen/Abrahams to use their pace to corral the edges.

4) Red-zone Attack

  • Expect them to over-resource the maul; use maul-to-strike: Nankivell at 12 as a hard, short-line option off JJ with Kelly/Kilgallen/Abrahams out the back.

  • If they spread early, use Hodnett’s pick to re-centre and reload advantage.

5) Discipline & Tempo

  • Stay squeaky clean in the middle third; they want long possession to draw soft pens. We want the soft pens — to touch — to test their lineout again and again.

Quick dashboards 

  • Connacht PPE (FOR/AGST): aim to keep them ≤1.6; hit ≥2.6 yourselves.

  • Ruck speed (FOR): hold 0–3s <58% and 6+ >15%.

  • Lineout (Connacht): keep them ≤85%; contest front lane early, then drift to middle.

  • Scrum penalties won: ≥3.

  • Penalty differential: finish +3 or better.

  • Kick-return metres/clean exits: limit KR gains; force touchline exits to re-apply lineout heat.

I’m Not Reading All That. Give me a TL:DR

Make it a set-piece and discipline game. Starve their lineout rhythm, turn the scrum into a whistle, and don’t feed their kick-return. If you push their slow-ball share north of ~15% and live in the corners off penalties, their attack flattens and the red-zone swings our way.