We know well what it’s like to get beaten by Edinburgh in Cork.
Just last season, we suffered what was arguably a more critical blow to our season here, in Virgin Media Park, than we suffered away to Zebre in the second round.
In that Wally Ratings — titled “Low Floor” — I wrote the following;
Let’s do the “Will This Be A Sticky Game For Munster” checklist.
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- Losing collisions in the middle of the field. ✅
- The usual quality isn’t there at halfback. ✅
- The set piece goes wrong. ✅
You can see the issues straight away.
That game was a disaster. A penalty conceded on almost every single Edinburgh put-in, and a few on our own, mixed with a lineout in the low 80% range. Our scrum was absolutely destroyed to the point that we only retained 75% of our own scrum put-in, which is genuinely diabolical and puts any game almost out of reach. Throw in 17 turnovers, bad red-zone defence and you have the perfect encapsulation of how low our floor went last season.
Even then, it was only the concession of one daft try in the first half that was ultimately the difference as, bad set piece and all, we still managed to finish strongly.
There’s something of a lesson there. We know where Edinburgh are strong, we know what they’re going to try to do, and we know how to stop it. But knowing and doing are two different things.
Edinburgh’s set-piece threat was pretty clear last season, too, and still.
There’s no hiding from the fact that this loss was deeply damaging. Edinburgh are a side that you can shut out with even average defensive composure, but they are impossible to beat without a functioning scrum and while we seemed to be intent on handing them 26 points with some of the most headless defensive efforts you’ll see at this level.
That was last season. This is a new season, but the threats Edinburgh poses are the same. Sure, they lost to Zebre in Parma on the opening weekend of the season — maybe they spent too long in Barburrito in Edinburgh Airport — and didn’t play last weekend, but everything true last February is true here again, if not more so. Edinburgh arguably has the best loosehead rotation in the league, with Pierre Schoeman and Boan Venter. They’ve got real size and power in the second row — the same unit as last season in the same fixture where we looked physically outclassed — and a test-quality back-three combination.
For Munster, we know that any flavour of performance that sees us nail the scrum and lineout here will put us in a position to go three from three to start the season and leave us exactly on track with Leinster to come in Croke Park next week.
What a Win Here Does for our URC projection
Current tally: 9 pts from 2.
If we beat Edinburgh with a BP (+5): 14 pts from 3 (≈ 4.67 ppg pace).
Target bands we’ve used:
- Playoffs safe: ~52–55
- Home QF: ~60–65
- Top-2 seed: ~68–72
What 14 points from 3 means vs those targets
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Home QF runway: Need 46–51 pts from the remaining 15 games → 3.1–3.4 ppg.
That’s basically 10 wins + 6–8 BPs across the run-in (more than achievable, especially with two “bankers” still in the schedule). -
If it’s a non-BP win (+4 instead): 13 after 3 → need 47–52 from 15 (3.13–3.47 ppg).
The extra BP now shaves ~0.05–0.1 ppg off the end of regular season ask. Tiny on a per-game basis, big over 15.
Knock-on effects of a Win (from my SoS view)
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It banks a points cushion before the R11–R14 “red zone” (Glasgow, Sharks, Bulls all away). One extra point now is one less you need in SA/Scotstoun.
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Irish Shield leverage: Leinster/Ulster still have tougher early slates; +5 widens or at least maintains the gap while you’re still in the “softer” block.
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Rotation freedom: Being at 14 points from 3 lets you be braver with Crowley/pack rotation around R4 (@Leinster) and the late-Nov Stormers game.
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Tiebreakers: A try BP win likely helps Points Difference as well — useful in the 4–6 mosh pit.
bonus point win vs Edinburgh doesn’t just take us to 14/3; it nudges the season arc toward a 60+ finish and buys selection flexibility ahead of the hardest travel block. In probability terms, it’s a small but real bump to home-QF odds and keeps top-2 in play if we can hit one of the SA away games later.
Edinburgh, who know well how badly their own loss away to Zebre has screwed up their season, combined with a postponed home game throwing huge uncertainty into their planning, have loaded up for this one. They would have been banking on a home win over Ulster last weekend to supercharge their season after that bad start in Parma, and now that game is likely going to be rescheduled during a test window where they will likely be without ten of the players they’re using here, if not more. So they’ve loaded up as strong as they can go — maybe a little more so than if they’d played last week.
That’s going to be the challenge — meet their scrummaging challenge head on, move past it, and get the win.
Munster Rugby: 15. Mike Haley; 14. Calvin Nash, 13. Tom Farrell, 12. Seán O’Brien, 11. Andrew Smith; 10. JJ Hanrahan, 9. Paddy Patterson; 1. Michael Milne, 2. Diarmuid Barron (c), 3. Oli Jager; 4. Jean Kleyn, 5. Fineen Wycherley; 6. Jack O’Donoghue, 7. Ruadhán Quinn, 8. Gavin Coombes.
Replacements: 16. Lee Barron, 17. Josh Wycherley, 18. John Ryan, 19. Edwin Edogbo, 20. Brian Gleeson, 21. Ethan Coughlan, 22. Tony Butler, 23. Dan Kelly.
Edinburgh: 15. Wes Goosen; 14. Darcy Graham, 13. Piers O’Conor, 12. James Lang, 11. Duhan van der Merwe; 10. Ben Healy, 9. Ben Vellacott; 1. Pierre Schoeman, 2. Ewan Ashman, 3. D’arcy Rae; 4. Marshall Sykes, 5. Sam Skinner; 6. Liam McConnell, 7. Dylan Richardson, 8. Magnus Bradbury (c)
Replacements: 16. Paddy Harrison, 17. Boan Venter, 18. Paul Hill, 19. Glen Young, 20. Freddy Douglas, 21. Ben Muncaster, 22. Charlie Shiel, 23. Harry Paterson
The key to staying away from Edinburgh’s strengths in this game lies in denying them a platform to use them. They will kick a lot to empower their scrummaging, they will mainly play off the set piece, and they’ll start the game with backfoot rugby — they’ll try to set the tone in defensive collisions and over the ball at the breakdown.
Beating them means being incredibly solid under their kick starter plays, denying them territory first, and ensuring they defend on the back foot inside their 10m line first and foremost. Let’s get into their data profile, which is based off last season’s work mainly, but is still relevant on a style perspective;
What They Are
Elite tacklers: ~89% tackle success (top tier) with relatively few dominant hits (~9.6/game). They stop you more than they smash you, so we need to make sure our tight, three-man pods are loaded up with latchers attached immediately.
Collision-sound carriers: High dominant carry % (~42%) and solid gainline win rate (~56%). We’ll need two in the tackle on almost every set-up carry they make.
Red-zone punch: Last season, they landed ~9.2 22-entries per game and converted ~41% of them to tries (upper tier in the URC). That is almost all down to their ability to win those tight collisions, as shown in the previous point. That said, they also concede ~39–40% in their own 22 → so they’re far from a fortress once we get in their red zone, which was true against Zebre a few weeks ago too.
They are a Set-Piece Platform Team:
- Lineout ~88%; middle/back throws are used plenty.
- Scrum ~93% with a very high share of wins via penalty (~34%) → big discipline threat.
- Try origins lean heavily on set piece (~56%); low off of turnovers/kick return.
Maul okay, not killer: Win rate ~89%, ~11m/game, ~0.26 maul tries/game. They use it for gains/penalties more than finishes, but they will walk into the 22 on back-to-back penalties using this, so we have to be very aggressive on their maul build starters.
Territory habits: ~72% kick exits (success ~88%). They’ll boot first; contest the air and try to keep us locked in the tramlines.
Shape & width: Their phase play is close/mid-heavy (~41% close, ~37% mid) with low true width (~8%) and less “wider than 1st receiver” than most other teams. It suits a direct, narrow rhythm and they’ll try to use Ben Healy to get cross-field kicks and wider sling passes into the edge spaces if we narrow up on their tight carriers.
Where We Can Go After Them
Starve the Platform.
- Scrum discipline is non-negotiable; don’t give them the penalty ladder up the pitch. Resist their second shove on their put-in, get Milne after Rae early while Jager is tussling with Schoeman.
- Lineout contest at middle/back; force them to the front and disrupt their main launch source (their tries skew to set piece).
Make them defend width after contact wins.
- They tackle brilliantly but don’t dominate collisions; go leg-drive/late tip + quick recycle, then hit edge-to-edge on phase 2–3. Their width usage is low — stress the last defender, which is either going to be O’Conor, Van Der Merwe or Graham. We can hurt them there.
Kick Pressure Plan.
- They exit by boot: contestables + touchline squeeze. Build repeat entries — remember their 22 D concedes ~40% so we can really hurt them on transition and on our lineout starters. Healy’s kick action is a little slow; pressure him on his catch and release. Vellacott can be inconsistent with his box kick exits, make life very difficult for him there.
Maul defence: Smart, not Paranoid.
- They’re efficient but not a maul-try machine. Prioritise sacking early and post-maul phase D, where their strike patterns come from set-piece structures.
Tempo & Second-Half Squeeze.
- Their try share tilts slightly 2nd half (~54%), but high tackle volume + narrow shape can fray under heavy tempo. Stay quick at ruck, keep the ball alive, rack up phases to drag their success rate down, and get the likes of Schoeman and Sykes off the field early.
Target Points of Failure.
- Exits: pin them, force multiple re-exits.
- Discipline swing: don’t feed their scrum; instead, hunt their defensive penalties once you’re multi-phasing in midfield (they’re high-success tacklers but concede in the red).
Edinburgh are organised, narrow, and set-piece driven. Make the scrum a non-factor, contest their lineout lanes, stretch them after a gainline, and live off repeat 22 entries. If we can keep the ball and shift it one pass wider, the cracks will show.
