Scarlets pose the biggest threats through set-piece power, first‑phase strike plays, and contact skills that generate breaks via offloads, so we’ve really got to manage the game away from cheap set-piece penalties and set-piece access, win the aerial battle on exits, and chop-tackle to deny post-contact play opportunities.

The Scarlets’ rise to the playoff spots last season was built on pragmatism. They kicked more than anyone in the URC other than Leinster and the Bulls. They were in the bottom five worldwide for average pass attempts per game, and only the Bulls in the URC passed less frequently on average per game. Dwayne Peel learned his lessons from a disappointing first two seasons in charge, where the Scarlets finished 14th and 13th playing what we might describe as “traditional” Scarlets rugby. Last season, he followed the well-worn track of removing the excess from their game, focusing heavily on defence, kicking and set piece, and reaped the rewards with +21 points on their finish in 2023/24, which was enough for an 8th place finish, with some excellent wins along the way.

They beat Leinster and the Bulls in Parc y Scarlets and almost beat Ulster in Belfast before beating the Lions in Ellis Park and going incredibly close to beating the Sharks in Durban. I watched that game on my laptop while sweating profusely in the Virgin Media Park press box, wondering if they were going to trash our decider against Benetton before a ball was kicked.

It was that type of season for the Scarlets. A rough start, a patchy middle and a very strong finish.

In the off-season, they’ve added Joe Hawkins from Exeter and re-signed Jake Ball after his stint in Japan, but lost arguably their most explosive, most effective athlete in Vaea Fifita to Montauban in PROD2 back in July.

What have they layered onto their game over the summer? They, like the Ospreys and others before them, will soon realise that a game plan with kick pressure at the centre of it has a hard limit depending on how much tight power you can bring to bear when it counts.

Let’s get into our Red Eye key points.  

Discipline, Set Piece and First Phase

Discipline in the middle third and tight-edge organisation off lineout are the priority risk controls in this matchup, and we’ve certainly selected our midfield to manage that particular area of the game. Dan Kelly is probably Munster’s best defensive organiser in the backline already, and I think his presence at #13 is a direct response to the threat we know is coming from that Scarlets set piece, which was consistently one of the best in the league last season.

Scarlets were among the URC’s most reliable sides at the set piece, with 89.8% lineout success and a 96.0% completion scrum that produced a decent platform while, crucially, keeping a very low penalty concession rate. Their finishing profile is front-loaded, with 39.8% of tries arriving in the first phase and 60.6% originating from set pieces, so early spacing and fold speed after the launch must be watertight and aggressive.

Maul Platform

Their maul is a territorial engine even when it doesn’t score, winning 91.0% of drives, generating 14.4 metres per game and 2.7 metres per maul on last season’s evidence, which flips field position and drags penalties. Early sack timing, clean contest on the lift, and staying square to avoid side-entry penalties are essential to blunt this platform before momentum builds, and goes some way to explaining our heavyweight back five selection with Wycherley, Kleyn and O’Donoghue — three of our best maul stoppers — in the team from the start.

Exits and Territory

Scarlets exit efficiently and predominantly by the boot, with 89.1% exit success and 79.1% of exits kicked last season, so expect long-kick/box‑kick sequences and strong chases to set up a set piece, either at the scrum or lineout. Poor capture of these exits risks immediately feeding into their best-attacking launch points via lineout or scrum in the middle third.

Red‑Zone Tendency

While they don’t flood the 22 with entries on last season’s evidence, they convert well when they arrive, turning 36.6% of entries into tries, so limiting entries matters more than winning long defensive stands. Avoiding maul penalties and scrum infringements in the 22-40m zone is key because those are their clearest pathways to efficient red‑zone execution. They kick deep, they get their maul working, and execute from there. It’s a well-worn path, but it’s one that the Scarlets used to excellent effect last season.

That said, they did convert penalties into three points more than any other side in the league bar Ulster last season, so a tactical penalty here or there might not be the worst outcome.

Carry & Contact Profile

Scarlets carried with decent punch and elusiveness: 36.0% dominant carry rate, 56.8% gainline success, and 23.7% tackle evasion, with 51.1% of carries drawing 2+ tacklers, stressing ruck resources and spacings. How that looks with Fifita — who earned 33% dominant carry and 58% gainline all on his own last season — remains to be seen, but Plumtree is a dangerous, physical runner who will need stopping early and often.

Their line breaks convert at 36.3% to tries, so soft-shoulder leaks around 10–12 are quickly punished if inside cover slips.

Offload Danger

Successful offloads are productive for the Scarlets’ momentum: 13.1% of their successful offloads assisted a line break, even if only 1.8% directly assisted a try, which means scramble defence must be organised to kill second‑touch threats after the initial tackle. Priority technique is low chop — Alex Kendellen — with square second man to ball, because Scarlets’ opponents who tackle upright to limit their offloading actually end up inviting keep‑alive passes and break‑assists.

Shape & Width

They are not excessively expansive phase‑to‑phase, playing beyond the first receiver on 22.5% of phases and beyond the second on 8.0%, with a relatively low 118.8 pass attempts that emphasise pattern-heavy punches and selective width. Most of their best gains are done in transition, with a kick following pretty frequently if they don’t make a killer linebreak. This pairs with their set‑piece strike profile: expect narrow, scripted starter shapes with timely overs/wraps rather than continuous edge‑to‑edge movement.

Practical Watchlist

• Minimise scrums/lineouts conceded in the middle third; kick-to-compete and touchfinder accuracy must deny Scarlets clean launches.

• Sack early and legally, and avoid lateral binds; do not give piggyback maul penalties that walk Scarlets into the 22.

• Default to chop-first tackles with a tight second man; contest the ball late to reduce break‑assisting offloads and post-contact leg drive.

• Organise edge defence early on first phase off the lineout; protect the 10–12 lane and inside support lines on scripted starters.