This is the time of year when teams in the URC moshpit between 3rd and 12th metaphorically lean forward in their chairs and grip the controller a little tighter. The URC between Rounds 10 and 13 sets the context for the final five rounds of the regular season. Four games equals twenty possible points at stake during a time when the form book often gets thrown out the window due to the x-factor of the Six Nations.
It’s the Passing Window of the United Rugby Championship.
It’s pass or get passed.
It’s when moves are made and the narrative for the regular season end-game is set. Are you desperately clawing to make the top eight so you can guarantee Champions Cup rugby for financial stability? Are you fighting for a home knockout game? Are you trying to maintain momentum while waiting for European and domestic knockouts?
The results of these four games decide what your story will be.
In the last two seasons, Munster have made massive strides at this point of the season and look to be doing the same thing this year. A bonus point win here would make it fifteen points from a possible fifteen and, if the Sharks lose, secure fourth place by the end of the weekend. If we win while Cardiff and the Scarlets lose to Leinster and Ulster respectively, we’ll have a two-win gap to sixth place, which should give us breathing room to chase down a top-four spot.
A loss? Well, we know what happens in the URC mosh-pit at this stage. We’ve been here long enough. So have Edinburgh. They are in danger of dropping to 14th in the table if results don’t go their way after enduring two losses on the bounce during the Passing Window so far.
A third could put jobs on the line and take Champions Cup rugby off the table for a second successive season.
The stakes are high and the lanes are open – let’s get into it.
Munster Rugby: 15. Ben O’Connor; 14. Calvin Nash, 13. Tom Farrell, 12. Alex Nankivell, 11. Shay McCarthy; 10. Billy Burns, 9. Ethan Coughlan; 1. Josh Wycherley, 2. Niall Scannell (c), 3. John Ryan; 4. Evan O’Connell, 5. Fineen Wycherley; 6. Tom Ahern, 7. John Hodnett, 8. Brian Gleeson
Replacements: 16. Diarmuid Barron, 17. Mark Donnelly, 18. Stephen Archer, 19. Ruadhán Quinn, 20. Alex Kendellen, 21. Paddy Patterson, 22. Tony Butler, 23. Seán O’Brien
Edinburgh: 15. Wes Goosen, 14. Matt Currie, 13. James Lang, 12. Mosese Tuipulotu, 11. Ross McCann; 10. Ross Thompson, 9. Ben Vellacott (c); 1. Boan Venter, 2. Ewan Ashman, 3. Paul Hill; 4. Marshall Sykes, 5. Sam Skinner; 6. Luke Crosbie, 7. Ben Muncaster, 8. Magnus Bradbury
Replacements: 16. Paddy Harrison, 17. Robin Hislop, 18. D’arcy Rae, 19. Glen Young, 20. Hamish Watson, 21. Ali Price, 22. Cammy Scott, 23. Mark Bennett
Edinburgh are currently wildly underperforming their statistical output in the URC and on the season overall.
Maybe that’s bumped a little by playing lesser opposition in the Challenge Cup but when I look at their season overall from a numbers perspective, they don’t seem like a side who’ve just dropped out of the top eight of the URC with back-to-back losses.
Sure, the Six Nations has really hurt them – take Schoeman, Van Der Merwe, Dave Cherry, Grant Gilchrist, Darcy Graham and Jamie Ritchie out of any squad and they’ll suffer – but that doesn’t fully explain it either.
They have the best scrum in the URC when it comes to generating penalties, the third-best scrum in Europe on completion rate and the second-best tackle completion rate in Europe, just behind Glasgow. So why have their results fallen off a cliff? I think without their established quality players, their middle-of-the-road ability to generate 22 entries and convert them into points has seen them fall behind their recent opponents and burn a tonne of energy on attacking sequences that go nowhere.
Edinburgh don’t kick a whole lot in general – they’re 12th for kick volume but 15th for kick distance. Oddly, they have a small kick retention rate for a team that kicks so short per kick on average, but that could just be a statistical anomaly rather than anything significant. When you don’t really kick the ball at any real volume, you need to be winning collisions against your opponents and generating dominant offence to make your decision not to kick on average worthwhile.
They are quite dangerous off full lineouts in this regard, primarily through the ball-carrying impact of Mosese Tuipulotu. He isn’t quite as dominant as his brother Sione when it comes to winning collisions but with the right match-up, he’ll run straight through any #10 with defensive issues and even a few who don’t.
Edinburgh’s attack is the very definition of low risk, low reward. They are bottom five in Europe for gain-line won in attack and in the top ten for the number of times they draw two defenders in the tackle.
What does this tell us? That teams have found a lot of success standing off Edinburgh’s rucks, filling the field and sending them from side to side to side over and back.
This is a good example of that against Zebre.
There’s no particular commitment to expansivity here, yet they don’t particularly concentrate on tight carries either. If you look at most sides, you’re able to work out a way of playing quite clearly but with Edinburgh, I feel like their work in possession has no identity – it’s all a little boilerplate.
You would expect that a team that doesn’t kick at huge volume would have a big presence on attacking transition, but they don’t really use that as a vehicle for points scoring. They have scored zero tries this season on kick return and, while they are top 10 in Europe for scoring on turnover ball, they aren’t massively high scoring on forcing turnovers.
If you don’t make mistakes, Edinburgh find it difficult to generate try scoring opportunities full-stop.
Watch this transition opportunity against Zebre, for example.
No clarity, multiple dud phases that end in a kick Edinburgh don’t try to retain, but instead try to turnover on landing.
If we can play relatively error free here while also upping our kicking volume, there are tries to be scored against this Edinburgh team off their own exits. They have the worst 22 exit success rate in Europe, despite kicking the vast majority of them; Munster are in the top three in all of Europe for tries scored, metres gained and offloads landed in transition in particular.
That is where Munster’s path to a bonus point lies in this game.
