It feels like every year, I have a list of guys that are down for a “breakout” year and I’m wrong as many times as I’m right.

I lost count of the times I had Keynan Knox down as a “this is his year” player, only for his minutes to dry up by the turn of the year. I had Thomas Ahern down as a breakout guy for two seasons before he did it in his fourth year as a full professional last season. Ahern’s 2023/24 was so good that if it weren’t for two badly timed injuries right before test windows, I think he would have almost certainly been capped.

Injuries were his downfall. It was a big shoulder injury in 2022/23 but in the seasons before that his durability game to game, session to session wasn’t where it needed to be so opportunities to “breakout” were limited. When it comes to talented young players, this is usually the hidden meta that holds them back from shooting up the ranks as quickly as generational freaks like Andrew Porter.

As an aside, I think Porter single-handedly warped our idea of how quickly a prop should be ready for elite rugby. In the summer of 2016, Andrew Porter started as a loosehead in that epic U20 World Championship run that saw a team led by James Ryan finish as runners-up. Porter made his full professional debut as a loosehead a few months later at 20 before transitioning to tighthead mid-season. He made his full Irish debut a year later as a replacement tighthead aged 21.

The next season he transitioned fully to tighthead, and became Tadhg Furlong’s 1B at Leinster and Ireland, winning a Grand Slam and a PRO14/Heineken Cup double along the way at 22. By 23, he was already a comfortable international and so good that Ireland were scheming ways to get him back to loosehead so he could start games alongside Furlong, as opposed to replacing him.

That kind of trajectory is not normal for I would say 98% of props. It is the preserve of, as I said, generational freaks, mutants and that bizarre 2% of players that you see maybe once every 30 years; namely, Andrew Porter.

So judging what a breakout season is next to a guy like Porter is a recipe for distorted expectations. Even Joe McCarthy, another player who looks like he could fit that generational freak description has had to wait longer than Porter. McCarthy was in the same U20 class as Tom Ahern and Jack Crowley – more on him later – and was a regular off the bench for that team, along with Cian Prendergast. When COVID shut down, that put paid to his U20 career and a badly timed torn hamstring kept him out for the next season, more or less.

He made his first Leinster start in January 2022, played in Europe later that season and got capped a season later. Injuries kept him out until his proper breakout year last season where he became an Irish regular after making the World Cup squad almost like an apprentice of sorts.

So jumping back to Munster, how do we define a “breakout” season for any young player, and when are they most likely to have one?

For this article, I’m going to define a breakout season as the following;

An older relative/work colleague/first name basis-only acquaintance like John on the school run who knows you’re into “the rugby” becomes aware of this player and uses them by name or general description to make small talk about them. 

By this definition, I make it that three Munster players had breakout seasons last season.

• “The Long Fella” – Tom Ahern
• “That new fella playing #10” – Jack Crowley
• “yer man the winger” – Calvin Nash

By far the biggest breakout of this bunch was Jack Crowley, who went from being a guy literally wearing Johnny Sexton’s jersey on his full test debut to starting every single game of consequence for Ireland on the way to a Six Nations title and a drawn series in South Africa.

So, under those criteria, who looks like they could break out in 2023/24?

My first pick is Edwin Edogbo.

If it wasn’t for a brutally timed Achilles injury last season, I don’t think it’s out of the question to say that Edwin Edogbo could have been a guy to make the wider Irish squad for the Six Nations and from there, who knows? His performances up until his injury were really good – he averaged a four-star rating in his seven appearances before the injury and produced a five-star performance against the Sharks on the opening day of the season – and he fits the exact type of profile that Andy Farrell likes to promote quickly. Edogbo is a Tighthead Lock Power Forward and was going shot for shot against Joe McCarthy in Thomond Park before doing his Achilles tendon.

It’s easy to say that Edwin Edogbo has the size and athleticism to make a big splash for Munster this season but that’s only half the job. Edwin’s biggest advantage is, for me, his game sense. Plenty of lads are big and strong in the carry but it’s the accuracy, power and decision-making around the ruck and at the lineout that mark Edwin out as being something special.

He’s in the sweet spot of having three full years of professional rugby under his belt, with lots of time to onboard technical information and the double-edged sword of being able to throw on extra muscle mass in the gym. I’ve seen Edwin around in the last few weeks and to say the guy is looking (and sounding) like Thanos these days would be… apt, actually. He’s in monstrous shape and just needs to hit the ground running and stay running; if he can, the opportunities will come.

My second pick for a breakout season is Diarmuid Barron.

It seems a bit odd to look at a 26-year-old with nearly 70 provincial caps under his belt as potentially having a breakout season but in front-row years, I think Barron is right where he needs to be to do it this season. He’s not as athletic as Dan Sheehan – very few hookers other than Malcolm Marx are – and he’s not quite as punchy as the heavier Ronan Kelleher but I think this season is the one where Barron can make a run at breaking into the Ireland conversation, especially with Sheehan out with an ACL injury.

To do that, Barron needs a bit more size and it looks like he’s gotten it during his six months out with a lisfranc fracture, an injury suffered against Leinster last December. Size definitely isn’t everything at hooker in 2024 but in my opinion, he needed that extra few KG given the demands of the front row in the modern game.

Barron’s strengths are;

• The variety and accuracy of his throwing, especially when he’s got proper size to work with at the lineout.
• Good technical scrummaging
• Slick passing as a central screen runner, both into the screen itself and with tip-ons or offloads.
• Huge work rate and accuracy at the offensive/defensive breakdown
• A Heavy Wing Forward roleset in open play

To take that next step up, I think he needs to showcase a little more power in the tight exchanges on both sides of the ball and that will be what I’m looking for in the first few weeks of the season. I genuinely believe Barron has the temperament and the rock-solid basics of the position to take that next step up if he can showcase that he’s got the heft of at least a Rob Herring-level guy. I think he does.

For my third and final pick, I find myself conflicted. I want this pick to be something of a moonshot – an attempt to find an Andrew Porter-level freak who makes the jump from u20 rugby to a full Irish cap inside one calendar year. Four guys spring to mind immediately; Sean Edogbo, Evan O’Connell, Ben O’Connor and Brian Gleeson.

Gleeson seems like the obvious pick here but a badly timed shoulder injury has likely ruled him out of the Emerging Ireland tour in the next few weeks and put him on a path where he’s making his first start of the year in December, where minutes will be scarce unless he’s pulling up trees in training or, more likely, we’ve got something of an injury crisis in the back row. I still think he’ll have a killer season but I’m framing his proper breakthrough as 2025/26.

Sean Edogbo could well be a Porter-like freak of nature, to be honest. Usually, power-forward type backrows find their opportunities limited by a slate of work-ons at the offensive breakdown, in defence and, most importantly, at the lineout but on the evidence of his u20 campaign this year and what he showed in preseason against Gloucester, Sean Edogbo has the same top-level game sense and IQ that his brother does.

I think Tom Ahern will spend most of this season in the second row and, if that holds true, I think that opens up a spot to replace Peter O’Mahony in that heavy edge-forward role, something Sean Edogbo is perfectly suited for, especially with his power as a direct runner and his smarts in the tight, especially at the breakdown. I think a lot hinges on whether or not he makes the Emerging Ireland tour in the opening rounds of the season. If he does, I think he’ll find himself loaded up for big things in 2025/26. If he stays with Munster, however, I think he’ll get 4/5 URC games that, if he can bring what we know he’s capable of, he could get supercharged into the wider test bubble a lot sooner than many think.

Ben O’Connor has all the hallmarks of a future top player for Munster and Ireland. He’s 6’2″, 90kg with a big frame, has a huge boot on him and is the type of incredibly coachable natural, explosive athlete that is perfect for an Emerging Ireland tour and maybe 10 URC games this season, with five of as a starter. Like Gleeson, and perhaps Edogbo, I’d have him down for 2025/26.

As a result, my final pick is Evan O’Connell.

I was sent by the Irish Examiner to cover a Munster Schools Senior Cup game in Castletroy a few years ago. I knew Evan O’Connell was going to be playing so my interest was piqued by that alone as he was one of the names I’d heard earlier that summer as one to watch for the coming season so there I was; ready to watch him.

When I rocked up to the pitch in Castletroy College – at the top of a hill behind the school – I asked this tall guy with a baseball cap on the sideline if he had a teamsheet for Castletroy because I was there with the Examiner to cover the game. I only realised afterwards that I’d just asked Paul O’Connell for a teamsheet. For some bizarre reason, I didn’t recognise one of the most iconic players of all time until he spoke and said “uh, yeah, I think I have one around there somewhere”.

Anyway, that’s beside the point. Evan O’Connell can’t, for the time being at least, escape the connection to his uncle, especially at a school game where his uncle is coaching him. That’s just an unfair fact of life. Castletroy lost that game to Bandon, as it happens, but O’Connell was the game’s standout player. He was playing #8 in that game because I think Castletroy wanted their biggest, most athletic and most influential player launching off the scrum where possible. His lineout work was impeccable. His footwork, his movement, his launch, his work at the top of the jump, his lifting, his maul building; all looked outstanding. As much as he’s always going to be compared to Uncle Paul, Justin O’Connell’s influence should not be downplayed.

Evan went into the Munster academy the summer afterwards, straight after his leaving cert, which tells a story in its own right. That doesn’t happen very often. Here’s another thing that doesn’t happen very often; Evan O’Connell played every single U20 Six Nations game he was eligible for bar one and played every single minute of the Six Nations campaign he was captain for.

That is the hallmark of a player who earns his coach’s trust quickly and then keeps it. O’Connell is a Heavy Swing Lock who, at 6’7″ and around 112kg right now, is an easy plug-in to any team. He’s the exact type of player who should be touring with Emerging Ireland and, if he’s fit, I expect him to do so unless Munster have arranged for him to be a regular matchday feature of the early URC rounds.

The reason I think O’Connell can “breakout” this season is because he’s in a position where there’s a tonne of minutes for him if he can stay fit in the Munster second row while also being in a priority position for Ireland. He’s a lineout caller and primary lineout jumper, which makes him an easy selection in any tight five and if you can pair him with Jean Kleyn, in particular, he’d get a chance to showcase his full range of rock solid basics on the front foot. Let him run the lineout on both sides of the throw, let him carry ten times, let him make ten plus tackles, let him hit 30/40 rucks. If he brings that aspect of his game to senior level, he becomes eminently selectable regardless of the level of opposition.

Is it wildly out of the question that a good Emerging Ireland tour plus a bit of a run for Munster in the URC that he could see a cap against Fiji off the bench? I think that is more than possible, with a bit of luck. Ireland (and Munster) are looking for a long term Swing Lock replacement for Tadhg Beirne and Evan O’Connell is the best role fit for that in the provinces in the medium to long-term. This upcoming season is the time to start bedding in long term options at test level and I think Evan O’Connell is exactly the type of fit for that job.