The scoreboard told one story, but the game told another.
The scoreboard story was something like the Springbok’s gainline dominance in defence being partly unlocked by Ireland’s skillset and counterpunching but that, ultimately, flattered us a small bit. That isn’t to say Ireland didn’t play well or couldn’t have won this game; a hometown-coded technical TMO intervention preserved a narrow second-half Springbok lead that could have so easily been a two-point Irish advantage heading into the last quarter. Who knows how those last 20 minutes play out in that context? Maybe the Springboks have to overcommit to chase the lead, leave their monstrous chin exposed and get clipped. Maybe they don’t.
On the balance of play though, I don’t think we’d have deserved to win it.
The biggest swing moment in the game happened inside the first five minutes. It was here that South Africa showcased some of their new attacking concepts and caught Ireland thinking about the Springboks of 2023.
One of the core concepts of defending the Springboks as they were was their relatively conservative game state. They tend to carry for two or three tight phases around the middle of the field before exiting with a long, high bomb from Pollard. On transition, it was their passing numbers were quite a bit lower than that. You kick to them, challenge for the ball and if they don’t get out on first phase they typically reset and kick back to you with Kolbe or Arendse looking to kill your transition deep up the field.
We could be forgiven for expecting the same here after one phase of transition but no – we saw something entirely different.
When you’re defending the Boks – knowing what they have typically done – it’s common sense to line up your forwards completely with their forward pods and then back your scramble if they spread the ball. That’s what happened here but our scramble wasn’t anywhere near good enough.
Three forwards on our blindside are guarding Siya Kolisi – who’s acting as a typical edge forward in his positioning surrounded by Le Roux, Kriel and Arendse.
We have Beirne and Sheehan guarding Kwagga Smith and Eben Etzebeth.
In particular, I want you to look at this alignment right here on our outside edge; Doris, Van Der Flier and Nash, in that order on a defensive transition phase. Jack Crowley is in the backfield guarding against a kick return. Immediately, we’re asking way too much of Josh Van Der Flier on the reverse phase, which is exactly what happens.
When the Boks spread it to the far edge – where Steph Du Toit is acting as another edge forward on this transition sequence – we over-chase in response and lose four defenders in the ensuing scramble, which tugs on our defensive line. Both midfielders are trapped on the 5m tramline.
When the ball is released from this ruck, our defensive alignment on the other side of the field is Caelan Doris, Josh Van Der Flier as the inside edge defender and Calvin Nash as the outside edge, with Jack Crowley in the right backfield.
The first mistake here belongs to Josh Van Der Flier – when he blitzes so deep into the second layer after Le Roux, he puts Nash in an impossible position to defend against Kriel, Kolisi and Arendse. I get what he was doing in one way – the Leinster system here would be to pressure the ball directly but, Captain Hindsight will probably say “I should have jockeyed and dared Le Roux to cut back inside”.
Crowley has to shoot up into the primary defensive line once the ball goes to Kriel and the only option he can make is tackling Kolisi to force a pass, which might allow Nash time to scramble on Arendse. Crowley got blamed for this on the Sky Sports broadcast I was watching by Rory Best which, for me, is just stupid. It’s the only defensive play to make. If Crowley floats on this to guard Arendse, Kolisi glides through the hole that developed back at the first ruck and South Africa scores regardless.
The second mistake here is who’s not on screen in this screengrab;
For me, Jamie Osbourne has to be on screen around this yellow circle if Ireland are to keep this out but he got pulled across the field on the previous phase attack.
But look, it’s just a try. There’s no reason why Ireland can’t come back from it and we almost did on the next sequence, probably our best tight phase play of the game, but lost it right at the end when O’Mahony and McCarthy failed to connect with a pop and drive on the tryline. McCarthy is going a little too low – he wants to make himself as hard to stop here as possible, understandably – and O’Mahony’s pass is inaccurate. I don’t think McCarthy scores on this drive but both players should have done better.
As the first half wore on, it felt like our tip-on game was having less of an impact on the Springbok middle-line defence. We were using Peter O’Mahony as a deceptive middle-line offloading threat off #9 but the Boks soon cottoned onto the fact that we didn’t really want to play directly so started to move off O’Mahony quite quickly.
In this sequence, O’Mahony passes well but Nche is never committed and double tackles Beirne. Beirne still manages to play his way around it – because he’s Tadhg Beirne – and Ireland win a penalty but seeing Nche jump off that line was a warning shot.
That warning shot said, “we dont’ rate you, physically”. Everything we did had to be so accurate and precise, with the exact right option taken every single time to break down this defence when we weren’t forcing compressions. Look at how sharp and accurate the passing is from Casey and Crowley in this sequence.
Bundee has to adjust to take his pass but it’s still good quality and he has time to make the play. Handre Pollard in his peripheral vision spooks him so he doesn’t make the pass. Casey wins Ireland a penalty on the next phase anyway, but I think a fully fit and sharp Bundee Aki sees Pollard as a weak intercept threat at this range and at least tries the pass to Sheehan.
Off this penalty launch, we’d see what it would take to unlock a defence that was stuffing every carry we made almost without exception. Watch this clip and look at how many times our set-up carries get stopped without much in the way of gainline. We’re not getting blown away in these collisions, but it’s hard work that only an inch-perfect 20+m pass from Crowley to Sheehan can unlock before Sheehan, Lowe and Osbourne combine for an incredibly low percentage score.
This is great work but it shows the level of accuracy and skill we needed to unlock this Boks side; nothing was simple, everything was difficult. That’s how it’s going to be at test level, sure, but it felt like our passing windows and running lanes were like trying to slip an A4 page through a window slightly ajar.
Even with that, the Springboks never pulled away from us despite Ireland hitting the wall at altitude once in the first half and then around 60/65 minutes in the second half.
Despite the fearsome, oh-wow-so-scary Bomb Squad™©® the Boks looked as laboured as we did for most of that second half and they only pulled beyond a five-point lead when an ice-cold Ciaran Frawley switched off when James Lowe made an outstanding play to keep an Handre Pollard touch finder in play.
If he’s fully up to the speed of the game – or even playing in the one position consistently for six months – I think he cops on that he needs to be tighter to Lowe here but, alas, once this ball bounces in field it’s all about who gets to the ball first.
That will always be Cheslin Kolbe unless you are standing on the ball and, even then.
Watching the game back, I was taken by how difficult everything was and how lacking in cohesion we were, despite our entire team identity and tour construction hinging on that concept. The longer any phase of play went longer than two phases, things started to get lower and lower percentage in execution.
Why is Frawley not taking this pass from his primary playmaker? Crowley is playing the ball blind into the third layer so he needs his pocket runners to hoover up those passes. It’s not a bad pass, it’s bad line running and it’s another chance gone. Later in the half, we had another chance to put pressure on but Frawley was overrunning basic lines off Crowley.
Frawley’s line means the only pass that reaches him on that line has to travel past Kurt Lee Arendse at close range. What are we doing here?
This isn’t Frawley’s fault. How can he be expected to slot into these specialist positions when he’s played the Leinster #10 role, the Leinster #12 role, and the Leinster #15 role while covering all those roles on the Leinster bench repeatedly in the last 12 months and then doing the same utility back job for Ireland? These are all different positions with different jobs. Instead of building depth with Keenan’s forced absence due to the Olympics with specialist fullbacks who’ve played there all year for their province, we are trying to slot round pegs into oblong holes and wondering why it’s a struggle.
At some point, we have to stop cooing over Andy Farrell finding guys who “aren’t starters for their province” and instead ask why specialists playing week in and week out for their provinces are on holiday this month instead of getting an opportunity this week and next. Jamie Osbourne didn’t play badly here and took his try well but he’s played all his rugby at #12 for Leinster this season and, for me, throwing him in at the deep end in this game was the exact opposite of risk-taking and depth building. It was the same old parable of Marge Simpson’s Pink Dress; trying to reshape provincial cohesion into a new shape every time. I had people telling me selecting Craig Casey was a risk; you mean the guy who’s started almost every game of consequence for Munster across the last two seasons with real playmaking pressure on him every single week? That guy? He played exactly as well as I expected him to because he’s doing that every other week for his province.
Instead of asking “Who do you drop” maybe ask “Who can we try out”. You could argue that South Africa didn’t experiment too much with their role sets but the context is different – they are homecoming World Champions under real pressure in front of an expectant crowd that can and will turn on them in a heartbeat.
At some point, we’re going to have to grasp the nettle of actual experimentation in several spots and accept the chance of a bad sting.
| Player | Rating |
|---|---|
| Andrew Porter | ★★★★ |
| Dan Sheehan | ★★★ |
| Tadhg Furlong | ★★★★ |
| Joe McCarthy | ★ |
| Tadhg Beirne | ★★★ |
| Peter O'Mahony | ★★★ |
| Josh Van Der Flier | ★★★ |
| Caelan Doris | ★★★★ |
| Craig Casey | ★★★★★ |
| Jack Crowley | ★★★ |
| James Lowe | ★★★ |
| Bundee Aki | ★★ |
| Robbie Henshaw | ★★ |
| Calvin Nash | ★★★ |
| Jamie Osbourne | ★★★ |
| Ronan Kelleher | ★★ |
| Cian Healy | ★ |
| Finlay Bealham | ★ |
| James Ryan | ★★★★ |
| Ryan Baird | ★★★ |
| Conor Murray | ★★★ |
| Ciaran Frawley | ★ |
| Garry Ringrose | ★★★ |
