The last time I wrote about Joey Carbery was back in April of this year in the direct aftermath of his dropping from the Six Nations squad and before the season run-in.
In that article, I asked two questions. One indirectly and one directly – if a little rhetorically.
The first was whether Joey Carbery could win his World Cup spot back by leading Munster to a trophy.
At this stage, barring a miracle playoff run to the end of the season that sees Carbery win the URC for Munster as the starting #10, it’s hard to see Carbery going to the World Cup as it stands unless Sexton can’t recover from his season-ending injury in time (which I doubt – that lad would play in crutches if he was allowed).
The answer to that question was no, as it turned out. Carbery wouldn’t play for Munster again after featuring off the bench against the Sharks in Durban during our Heineken Cup exit. The second question was;
For Carbery now, the equation is simple heading into a contract year; he’s fighting for his career as an elite #10 in the Irish environment. Joey will be 28 this November and should be entering his peak. The guy who he always looked like becoming is still in there somewhere, I believe that, but he needs to show himself consistently now when the pressure goes up. Ultimately, in pressure games, you want to look back at your #10 when the heat is on and think “he’s got this”.
Does Joey? The next few months will tell a lot.
It turned out that Joey did not, in fact, got this because he wasn’t selected for the run-in despite being fit. He was still an absolute consummate professional during that time – to the point that it was remarked to me just how selfless he was when he’d nearly have every right to have his ass in a sling – but the bare facts of it were stark. When Munster’s season was reaching its zenith with one must-win game after the other, the coaches chose to go with a guy who wouldn’t be at the club on July 1st ahead of the guy with 37 Ireland caps. We’re not talking about starting here either – Carbery wasn’t even used as a bench option.
In an Irish context, that is absolutely mad. When you remember that he was dropped from the Irish squad earlier this season it becomes even more bizarre.
I can’t think of the last time that an active, established Irish international in his 20s – his prime years – had such a precipitous fall out of Cat A matchday contention at both country and province without currently being injured, especially the man who had been the defacto #2 to an ageing incumbent since before the 2019 World Cup.
It seems that in the latter half of 2022/23, Irish rugby moved on from Joey Carbery, almost overnight. When a player of that renown gets dropped it’s easy to come up with conspiracy theories and rumours fly thick and fast along the halls and club bars of the backrooms of Irish rugby.
The old adage of there never being smoke without fire has never made sense to me because people lie all the time for a hundred different reasons, especially when it comes to rumours about sports, celebrities and politicians. When you hear rumours about Carbery this season – that he’s moved house up to Dublin, that he’s talking to French clubs, that he’s secretly injured, that his head is gone – you just let them wash over you with the knowledge that they are both true and false at the same time. There’s no way to know because even knowledgeable people might only have half a story.
It is a byproduct of the goldfish bowl that these players exist in and an unfortunate cost of doing business.
The most consistent rumour that I’d heard about Joey Carbery was that he was looking for a change of scenery. Let’s assume this is true for a moment. Joey Carbery has been the Heir Apparent (bawk) to Johnny Sexton for six seasons now, ever since he broke through like a superstar in the making in 2017. He was the Irish Rugby Starboy. His stock – and notoriety – went through the roof when he made the most controversial move he could have made in 2018 by joining Munster to compete directly with Sexton for the Irish #10 jersey ahead of the World Cup, at least in theory.
He had the Irish game at his feet and if you asked a Leinster fan in 2017 and a Munster fan in 2018, they’d have told you that Carbery’s ascension to the Irish #10 jersey was a sure thing whenever it was that Sexton packed it in.
Then Joey got injured. This is a story I’ve spoken a lot about but when he missed the first two seasons, essentially, post 2019 it ensured that Andy Farrell could only ever really rely on Johnny Sexton. Even back then we should have released that Carbery’s test window was closing. When he came back from his injuries properly, we should have seen his usage in green for what it was – Farrell was using him as a stand-in. Andy Farrell never once selected Joey Carbery as an alternate in any meaningful game. He only got minutes off the bench for Sexton or when Sexton was injured. If an important game was in the balance, Sexton would play every minute until he could no longer or the result was beyond doubt.
Sexton played an average of 67 minutes in last year’s Six Nations at 37 years of age. That is remarkable but even more remarkable when you consider his numbers were dragged down by an injury he sustained after only 47 minutes against France that required him to be replaced. If he played that game to the same level as he did his other four appearances, he’d have averaged 70 minutes, leaving nothing but garbage time for his potential replacements. Carbery, at the time, was not considered to be one of them anymore.
The year before, when Carbery was that guy – at least in theory – Sexton put up even bigger numbers in the Six Nations relatively speaking despite carrying an injury that forced him to miss a game. Sexton played 64 minutes against Wales and was taken off only when a Ringrose try put the game out of reach, despite carrying a dead leg that would keep him out of the France game a week later. He played 28 (!) minutes off the bench against Italy before racking up 79 minutes and 80 minutes against England and Scotland to finish out the tournament as Ireland chased a Six Nations title.
That summer against New Zealand Sexton went off after 31 minutes in the first test because of an injury but went on to play 73 minutes and 75 minutes respectively in the remaining two tests.
What does this tell you about Andy Farrell? That, when the pressure is at its highest in a must-win game, he’d rather Sexton running on fumes than a fresh Joey Carbery. Is it any shock that he dropped Joey Carbery ahead of this year’s Six Nations? The signs were there for years.
I don’t even blame Farrell because when the moment was there in the 2020/21 window when Ireland were struggling with a new system, Carbery was on the treatment table. That isn’t Joey’s fault either but it’s the cruelty of sport. He missed his window to make himself indispensable so Sexton became even more important because there was quite literally no one else anywhere near his standard to come in. They tried Ross Byrne (something they would do again), they tried Harry Byrne, they tried Billy Burns, and they were so desperate by the summer of 2022 that they tried Ciaran Frawley – a player who doesn’t play #10 for his club – before eventually giving Jack Crowley a run.
So where does this leave Carbery?
The moment was there for him when he was initially dropped to fire back for his province but that moment passed him by. Instead, there were some milquetoast performances – most notably against Glasgow – where he looked like he’d rather be anywhere else doing anything else. I watched that game back this week, actually, just to see if my read on it was off but I don’t think it was. Joey Carbery was meant to be a leader, a game-winner for us that week in a regular season game that could have booked us a home quarter-final but, when it came to it, he was too passive, too quiet, made too many key errors and we were a more effective looking team when he was off the field.
He played 11 more minutes against the Sharks a week later and that would be that.
This is not Joey Carbery.
He is better than this, I know it, but if he isn’t showing it what options are there? The situation is further complicated by something quite simple; Jack Crowley looks a better player, a better leader and he’s shown that he can be a pressure game-winner while being five years younger and leading Munster to our first trophy since 2011.
Munster would be incredibly foolish NOT to build around Jack Crowley right now and, by all accounts, that’s exactly what’s happening. This is Crowley’s team now, in my opinion, and that leaves Joey Carbery solidly in the #22 shirt for big games in red if Crowley remains fit.
For me, #10 is one of the jerseys on the field where, in a functional team, there cannot be active competition for places. There is your guy, the player who leads your team and runs your attack, and who is almost a conduit through which the head coach and attack coach influence the game on the field.
If that guy is changing every week depending on performance levels, you won’t win much of anything. Look at all the dynasties in European Rugby over the last 20 years. How many of those sides were a coin toss at #10?
Munster in the 2000s? Ronan O’Gara is the #10.
Leinster in the 2010s? Johnny Sexton is the #10.
Toulon? Johnny Wilkinson is the #10.
Saracens? Owen Farrell.
Toulouse? Romain Ntamack.
In the vast majority of successful teams, there is ONE flyhalf that runs the team when the big days come around. Ask yourself if that guy is Joey Carbery at Munster after the season Jack Crowley had last year.
Now ask yourself if, with a contract to be negotiated in the next few weeks, you’d keep Joey Carbery on the money he’s currently on – reduced from the peak of his second contract here but still significant – or even offer him a deal full stop in an environment where he’s not The Guy.
This is where unpleasant conversations happen and big decisions get made. Munster have Jack Crowley on contract for another two seasons. Joey Carbery is out of contract next July. I think Joey Carbery is too good a player to sit behind anyone but, at the same time, if I’m making the decision between himself and Crowley it’ll be Crowley every time.
Something has to give.
Munster, Ireland and Joey Carbery himself have some big decisions to make in the next few weeks.
