People forget things all the time.

I forgot, for example, that Munster signed “the Chiropractor” Brian Lima in 2004/2005 but he injured his quad before he ever got a chance to play a game for us and went home with 0 minutes and 0 caps to his name. As an aside, every single tackle in that sizzle reel is at least a yellow card by today’s standards and most of them are cast-iron red cards and lengthy bans to boot. But I completely forgot that Munster signed him. A few months later, Munster would sign Trevor Halstead who would go on to be a core part of Munster’s Heineken Cup-winning side of 2005/2006 so no one remembers what came before, or why it didn’t work out – they only remember the good bit.

The key is giving people that Good Bit to make the disappointments that came before disappear into the memory hole.

That’s Munster’s job ahead of a tricky mid-block of the season that, you feel, will ultimately decide the context for the run-in. Up until now, results just haven’t been good enough with performances fluctuating up and down as you might expect with a new group of coaches implementing a new way of training and a fairly radical departure in playing intent.

But the facts are the facts;

• Munster have won two league games out of seven.
• That has earned 12 points.
• We are currently sitting 14th in the URC.

Munster’s points difference of -7 shows how close run some of those games were but it makes for ugly reading whatever way you slice it. All of the games that we’ve lost bar Leinster have been under 10 points and, even then, the Leinster game requires the context of multiple injuries in the decisive second half. All in all, of the games we’ve lost this season so far, the average margin of defeat has been seven points – a converted try. Small margins, sure, but when they’re going against you, they might as well be 27 points.

The next 11 games, though, provide an opportunity to change the narrative. Connacht (H), Edinburgh (A), Toulouse (H), Northampton (A), Leinster (H), Ulster (A), the Emirates Lions (H), Northampton (H), Toulouse (A), Benetton (A) and then the Ospreys (H) in the middle of February.

I’ll get to the European Cup games in due time but those seven URC games offer 35 points that will decide how the end game of this season looks. Will the start be a blip that’s soon forgotten? Or a portent of more difficulty to come?

This block will soon tell us.

There has been a fair amount of talk about Munster possibly not qualifying for the top 8 – or whatever version of that earns us Heineken Cup rugby next season – and that’s a legitimate concern at this point. This is the second year of the URC so we don’t quite know what the baseline for top 8 qualification is as of now and I’m not sure if last year is a good example to base this season on.

The biggest factor for me in last season’s run-in was the Omicron variant that hit in November 2021 and forced a hasty fixture re-organisation that essentially meant that the South African sides spent seven months between November and May with only one fixture outside of the Republic to contend with, before coming back up north towards the end of May 2022.

As an example, the Vodacom Bulls had 5 points by the October break after four rounds of games during URC 1 but they earned 43 points between December and April while they were in South Africa. They’re good at home, sure, but the advantage in playing teams who have either just arrived off a plane or are on week two of a condensed tour can’t be underestimated either. Of the five non-South African teams that the Bulls played at home, they only failed to get a winning bonus point once. That’s 24 points all on its own. The other South African sides had the same advantage while also avoiding the rigours of test and European rugby from November on. Sure they had Currie Cup games too but they were completed without touring.

The Bulls finished fourth in URC 1 with 58 points and seven of their eleven wins came at home.

My point is, without that settled run of selection, because of no European commitments or a test window – both of which allowed them to rotate and rest guys, even with the Currie Cup – and without the two weeks touring, two weeks home, one-week touring, one week home grind of the URC they’ll have in the second half of this season, would they, and the other South African sides, have wracked up such a massive second half surge?

I’m not sure.

Essentially, is the 54-point threshold for Europe that we saw last season a real target, or is it based on a context that doesn’t exist anymore? I think that, with the flux of a regular regular season schedule that isn’t distorted by COVID and the possibility of teams catching each other on the hop with rotation, the actual target could be closer to 50 points.

But regardless of my opinion on what will be required, Munster need to start winning games – and home games in particular – to have any sort of chance of getting to whatever watermark means European Cup rugby for next season.